SIO: LUA - Post-Tropical

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 8:48 pm WST on Thursday 15 March 2012

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Mardie,
including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Bidyadanga
including Broome, and the eastern inland Pilbara including Newman and Telfer.

At 8:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category 2 was estimated to be
700 kilometres north northwest of Karratha
770 kilometres northwest of Port Hedland
moving east northeast at 6 kilometres per hour.

Lua has moved slowly over the last few hours but will accelerate towards the
east Pilbara coast during Friday. Lua is expected to intensify into a severe
tropical cyclone overnight and remain severe through to landfall.

Gales are not expected in coastal areas overnight, but gales are expected to
develop between Mardie and Bidyadanga by early Saturday. Very destructive winds
with wind gusts in excess of 170 kilometres per hour are likely to develop in
coastal areas near the centre of the cyclone during Saturday. Gales are
expected to extend to coastal areas between Cape Leveque and Bidayadanga during
Saturday and then to inland eastern Pilbara areas later on Saturday.

Heavy rainfall is expected near the west Kimberley coast and in coastal and
inland parts of the east Pilbara. During Saturday and Sunday areas of heavy
rain are likely in the east Gascoyne and northern Goldfields.

Heavy surf conditions are expected along the east Pilbara and west Kimberley
coast during Friday and Saturday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Broome and Mardie including
Karratha, Dampier, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Port Hedland, South
Hedland, Pardoo, Wallal, Bidyadanga and Broome need to prepare for cyclonic
weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable
radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Remaining communities between Bidyadanga and Cape Leveque and in the inland
eastern Pilbara should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Lua at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 15.3 degrees South 113.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east northeast at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 970 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Friday 16 March.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Latest track

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1912 UTC 15/03/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Lua
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 114.5E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [109 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Central Pressure: 970 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/0600: 16.8S 116.4E: 050 [095]: 075 [140]: 960
+24: 16/1800: 18.1S 118.4E: 080 [150]: 085 [155]: 948
+36: 17/0600: 20.2S 119.8E: 115 [210]: 080 [150]: 956
+48: 17/1800: 23.1S 120.2E: 145 [270]: 045 [085]: 983
+60: 18/0600: 26.6S 120.1E: 195 [355]: 035 [065]: 992
+72: 18/1800: 29.5S 120.4E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 992
REMARKS:
Position is based on 1352 UTC AMSUB and 1610 UTC microwave pass as well as EIR
satellite imagery.

Dvorak analysis on late afternoon VIS imagery yielded curved band wrap of around
1.2 giving a DT of 4.0. Recent EIR imagery have shown a possible ragged eye, but
this still yields a DT of 4.0. MET is 4.0 based on a trend of D-, PAT is 4.0 and
FT is set to 4.0. ADT is running low at T3.2 with a relatively poor final
position. CIMMS AMSU is estimating 72 knot 1-min mean winds, which seems a
little high given the microwave still does not show a closed eye feature.

Final intensity estimate remains at 60 knots 10-min mean.

At 12Z CIMMS shear analysis indicated the shear had increased slightly to 15
knots. Shear is expected to reduce during Friday and become very favourable for
development together with strong upper divergence as an upper trough approaches.
This will be followed by unfavourable shear as upper northwesterlies increase
over the system but this may not occur in time to weaken the cyclone prior to
landfall on Saturday.

There is very good general agreement across model guidance for a coastal
crossing on Saturday, although the timing of this varies somewhat.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest track

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave .. better organized

[HURAKAN]

The islands of Bedout and Legendre already reporting tropical storm force winds

[wxman57]

http://www.bom.gov.au/images/maps/wa/wa-observations-map.png

The islands of Bedout and Legendre already reporting tropical storm force winds

That's strange, as those islands are a good 250 miles outside of the area of squalls associated with Lua and over 400 miles from the center

[HURAKAN]

http://www.bom.gov.au/images/maps/wa/wa-observations-map.png

The islands of Bedout and Legendre already reporting tropical storm force winds

That's strange, as those islands are a good 250 miles outside of the area of squalls associated with Lua and over 400 miles from the center

Bedout at 9 m: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60801 ... 4310.shtml

Legendre at 29 m: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60801 ... 4307.shtml

[HURAKAN]

Appears to be gaining strength

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0107 UTC 16/03/2012
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.2S
Longitude: 115.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [120 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [20 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 968 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/1200: 17.3S 117.7E: 060 [110]: 075 [135]: 962
+24: 17/0000: 19.0S 119.4E: 090 [165]: 085 [155]: 951
+36: 17/1200: 21.7S 120.0E: 125 [230]: 060 [115]: 968
+48: 18/0000: 24.7S 119.8E: 155 [285]: 040 [070]: 986
+60: 18/1200: 27.6S 119.8E: 205 [375]: 030 [055]: 990
+72: 19/0000: 30.6S 121.2E: 250 [465]: 030 [055]: 988
REMARKS:
Position is based on recent microwave passes.

Dvorak analysis based on embedded centre give a DT of 4.5 consistent with MET
4.5 based on a trend of D-. Final intensity estimate is 65 knots 10-min mean
while ADT/AMSU intensity estimate is 70 knots.

Shear has begun to decrease [-10 knots at 18Z] and the system is heading into an
area of lighter shear during the day. Conditions are favourable for further
development during Friday with the system expected to remain a severe tropical
cyclone until landfall along the east Pilbara coast during Saturday. Shear
increases as upper northwesterlies increase over the system during Saturday but
this may not occur in time to weaken the cyclone prior to landfall. The system
is likely to maintain TC intensity into Sunday morning as it moves over inland
parts of WA.

There is very good general agreement across model guidance for a coastal
crossing on Saturday, although the timing of this varies somewhat.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

eyewall open to the east

[RobWESTPACWX]

Hey S2k pals, just made a video on this storm, as always I appreciate your honest feedback and I hope it helps. Thanks!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvZ_M6r6LkA[/youtube]

[HURAKAN]

Great analysis!

[HURAKAN]

Link: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDY00007.shtml

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued at 12:16 pm WST on Friday 16 March 2012

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie,
including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier and Broome, as well as adjacent
inland parts of the eastern Pilbara.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for the central and eastern inland Pilbara including
Telfer, Newman and Paraburdoo, the far western inland Kimberley, the eastern
Gascoyne including Meekatharra, and the far western Interior.

At 11:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category 3 was estimated to be
475 kilometres north of Karratha
490 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland
moving southeast at 20 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua is moving steadily towards the east Pilbara coast.

Gales are currently being experienced in offshore Pilbara waters and are
expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Bidyadanga late
Friday night. Very destructive winds with wind gusts in excess of 200
kilometres per hour are likely to develop in coastal areas near the centre of
the cyclone during Saturday. Gales are expected to extend to remaining coastal
areas between Cape Leveque and Mardie and to inland eastern Pilbara areas
during Saturday.

Heavy rainfall is expected near the west Kimberley coast and in coastal and
inland parts of the east Pilbara. During Saturday and Sunday areas of heavy
rain are likely in the east Gascoyne and northern Goldfields.

Residents of Port Hedland and east to Bidyadanga are specifically warned of the
very dangerous storm tide expected as the cyclone centre approaches the coast.
Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with
damaging waves and very dangerous flooding.

Heavy surf conditions are also expected along the west Kimberley coast during
Saturday.


FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in coastal communities between Wallal and Whim Creek
including Port Hedland, South Hedland, Warralong, Marble Bar and adjacent
pastoral and mining leases need to take action and get ready to shelter from a
cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Broome and Wallal and between
Whim Creek and Mardie including Karratha, Dampier, Roebourne, Wickham, Point
Samson, Bidyadanga and Broome as well as inland communities including
Nullagine, Newman and Jigalong and surrounding pastoral and mining leases need
to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first
aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Remaining communities between Broome and Cape Leveque and in the inland eastern
Pilbara, east Gascoyne and western Interior should listen for the next advice.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua at 11:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.5 degrees South 116.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 20 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 185 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 963 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Friday 16 March.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

eye becoming much better organized

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0701 UTC 16/03/2012
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.6S
Longitude: 116.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [117 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [20 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 105 knots [195 km/h]
Central Pressure: 960 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 230 nm [425 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 230 nm [425 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 230 nm [425 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 230 nm [425 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/1800: 17.7S 118.5E: 050 [095]: 080 [150]: 956
+24: 17/0600: 19.9S 119.9E: 080 [150]: 090 [165]: 946
+36: 17/1800: 22.9S 120.2E: 110 [210]: 045 [085]: 984
+48: 18/0600: 26.2S 119.9E: 145 [270]: 030 [055]: 992
+60: 18/1800: 28.6S 120.4E: 190 [355]: 030 [055]: 990
+72: 19/0600: 30.1S 123.1E: 240 [445]: 025 [045]: 994
REMARKS:
Severe TC Lua continues to intensify as it tracks southeast towards an expected
crossing on the east Pilbara coast on Saturday. Position is based on recent
visible imagery combined with earlier microwave passes.

Intensity of 75 knots based on Dvorak analysis based on a ragged eye on visible
imagery [3/4 deg sized CDO] DT=4.5 and embedded centre in white on IR [DT=5.0]
give a DT of 4.5 consistent with MET 4.5 based on a trend of D-. Intensity is
consistent with ADT although latest AMSU estimate is higher.

Lua has a very large wind field with storm force winds extending about 2 degrees
in the northern sector augmented by the strong monsoonal flow. This is
generating signficant waves north and east of the system.

Lua should take a general southeast track towards the coast becoming more
southerly upon landfall, however being such a strong and asymmetric system,
short term fluctuations in the track are likely [known as trachoidal
oscillations].

A period of further intensification is forecast with low wind shear [-10 knots
at 00Z]. As the systems nears landfall on Saturday the shear increases as upper
northwesterlies increase but this is not expected to weaken the cyclone prior to
landfall. The system is likely to maintain TC intensity into Sunday morning as
it moves over inland parts of WA.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 16.5S 116.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 116.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.9S 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 20.1S 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 23.2S 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 26.6S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 117.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, (LUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS CONSOLIDATING WITH
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 160646Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE, HOWEVER,
SHOWS THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THIS
AMSU IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND APRF. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN
QUADRANT. TC 17S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUT IS FORECAST TO
TURN SOUTHWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH A 110 NM SPREAD AT TAU 24. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
POSITIONED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE ECMWF
TRACKER AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK IN INTENSITY AT 90 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL NEAR TAU
24 AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 AS IT
TRACKS QUICKLY INLAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS
31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TXXS21 KNES 161216
TCSSIO

A. 17S (LUA)

B. 16/1132Z

C. 16.7S

D. 117.7E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/AMSU/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...MOST RECENT SSMI/S PASS SHOWED DEFINED EYE FEATURE
SUGGESTING THE SYSTEM HAS STRENGTHENED FURTHER. SOME SIGNS OF AN EYE
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE IN CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGERY, BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A
FEATURE TO USE AN EYE PATTERN AND USED EMBEDDED CENTER. LLC EMBEDDED IN
CMG YIELDING A CF OF 5.0. NO BANDING FEATURE ADDED FOR A DT OF 5.0. MET
IS 4.5. PT IS 5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

16/0646Z 16.3S 116.5E AMSU
16/1028Z 16.7S 117.7E SSMIS


...NEWHARD