WPAC: PAKHAR - Post-Tropical

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1201 PAKHAR (1201)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 09.8N 111.3E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 310000UTC 10.2N 110.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 010000UTC 10.7N 109.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 020000UTC 11.3N 107.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

First STS of the season highly possible. JTWC looks to have gone for 55 kt at 18z, although the 00z ATCF isn't out yet.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Think JMA are going to have to play catch up here. Disregarding landfall threats, I would love to see this become a typhoon, I imagine it would break some records for earliest formation in the S China Sea.

EDIT: Looks like some sort of eye feature forming on vis satellite on the CWB page - http://www.cwb.gov.tw/eng/observe/satellite/Sat_H_EA.htm?type=RGB#

[cycloneye]

Indeed Typhoon Hunter,JMA is on catchup now.

JTWC upgrades to Typhoon



WTPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (PAKHAR) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 9.7N 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7N 111.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 9.9N 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 10.2N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 10.6N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 11.1N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 11.7N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.2N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 111.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (PAKHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.
//
NNNN

[Macrocane]

I wasn't expecting a Typhoon from this a couple of days ago. Hope everyone is prepared for a landfalling typhoon in that region.

[Typhoon Hunter]

There's a clear eye there now in visible imagery, let's see if JMA can break Dvorak constraints on their next warning, I'm not holding my breath...

[dexterlabio]

im just waiting for JMA to follow suit. Though I think they would only upgrade to STS. This does not deserved to be called a 40-knot TS.

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[Chacor]

Still a lousy 40 kt TS.

WTPQ20 RJTD 300900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1201 PAKHAR (1201)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300900UTC 09.8N 110.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 310900UTC 10.0N 109.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 010600UTC 10.5N 108.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 020600UTC 11.3N 106.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[RobWESTPACWX]

Hey everyone, a rapid intensification system today. Here is my latest video update on it I hope its helpful.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgS-C_1gPx4[/youtube]

[dexterlabio]

Ohhh. Not looking as good as it did hours ago. What happened? Was expecting it to develop further.

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (PAKHAR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 9.7N 111.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7N 111.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 10.0N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 10.3N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 10.7N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 11.3N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 12.1N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 110.8E.
TYPHOON 02W (PAKHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 19 FT.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z. //
NNNN




WDPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (PAKHAR) WARNING NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (PAKHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED CONVECTIVE
BANDING AROUND A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, ALBEIT
COVERED BY CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON
THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 300243Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE WITH A WELL-DEFINED CENTER FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 02W IS UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ROBUST OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TYPHOON PAKHAR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED STEERING RIDGE, AND IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PHAN THIET, VIETNAM SHORTLY AFTER TAU
36. THE LIGHT VWS, GOOD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 80 KNOTS
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WELL INLAND AND
DISSIPATING RAPIDLY. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR THAT CONTINUES TO DEFLECT THE
VORTEX DRASTICALLY POLEWARD AFTER TAU 12. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. //
NNNN

[Chacor]

At 18z, JMA's satellite bulletin analysed the CI at T3.0. 18z warning due any minute now.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1201 PAKHAR (1201)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301800UTC 09.9N 110.3E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 311800UTC 10.2N 108.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 011800UTC 10.8N 106.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 021800UTC 12.2N 104.3E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[wxman57]

Convection has definitely dropped off in the past 12 hours. Doesn't appear to be a typhoon at this time. Dvorak down to 3.0 as of 1430Z.

[HurricaneBill]

I know we're all focused on Pakhar right now, but there's also a pair of invests in the SPAC. 93P and 95P

[dexterlabio]

Not looking TY-worthy right now.

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (PAKHAR) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 9.7N 110.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7N 110.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 9.8N 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 10.0N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 10.6N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 11.4N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 110.1E.
TYPHOON 02W (PAKHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (PAKHAR) WARNING NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (PAKHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS RE-DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION AND TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING OVER
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS DIURNAL MAXIMUM. A 301348Z AMSU-B
IMAGE DEPICTS THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC, HOWEVER, THE DEEP CONVECTION
LOOKS LIMITED DUE TO THE DIURNAL MINIMUM AT THE TIME. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF TRACK SPEED AND MOTION OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS ALONG WITH THE PGTW AND RJTD CENTER FIXES WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD OF 45 TO 65 KNOTS SINCE DIURNAL
MINIMUM MAY HAVE INFLUENCED THE LOWER ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TY 02W IS A FEW DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS STREAMING POLEWARD AND EASTWARD INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TYPHOON PAKHAR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG
THE AFOREMENTIONED STEERING RIDGE, AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
JUST NORTH OF HO CHI MINH CITY BY TAU 36. THE LIGHT VWS, GOOD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MAINTAINED INTENSITY AND OFFSET THE CURRENT LAND INTERACTION OF THE
OUTER RAINBANDS. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WELL INLAND AND
DISSIPATED. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EGRR WHICH HAS NOW FLIP-FLOPPED FROM A DUE
POLEWARD TRACK TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. DUE TO THE OVERALL GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THIS TRACK FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 310600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1201 PAKHAR (1201)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310600UTC 09.7N 109.8E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 010600UTC 10.4N 107.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 020600UTC 11.2N 105.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 030600UTC 12.6N 103.4E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 311800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1201 PAKHAR (1201)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311800UTC 09.8N 109.1E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 011800UTC 10.9N 106.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 021800UTC 12.5N 104.6E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[HURAKAN]

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