SPO: DAPHNE - Tropical Cyclone (19F/18P)

[HURAKAN]

GALE WARNING 019 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 02/0159 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DAPHNE CENTRE [995HPA} CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.8 SOUTH 172.7 EAST AT 020100 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 19.8S 172.7E at 020100 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.9S 175.7W AT 021200 UTC
AND NEAR 25.9S 179.4W AT 030000 UTC

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ


THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

looks well-organized but its time is limited

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 02/0830 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DAPHNE CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3S 173.9E
AT 020600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 35 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 030000 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION INCREASED
WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTRE BUT REMAINS GOOD ELSEWHERE. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARDS BY NORTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER MEAN WIND. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP GIVING DT=3.0, MET
AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. SST
AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT.
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC 25.0S 177.9E MOV SE AT 25 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 030600 UTC 29.1S 178.3W MOV SE AT 25 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC 32.4S 174.9W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 040600 UTC 34.1S 172.5W MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON DAPHNE BE ISSUED AROUND
021420 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 020300
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DAPHNE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DAPHNE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON TEN-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 19.8S 172.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 172.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.9S 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 25.9S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 173.5E, OR APPROX 340 NM WSW OF SUVA,
FIJI. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[senorpepr]

WTPS31 PGTW 021500
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DAPHNE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DAPHNE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 22.9S 176.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 176.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 27.6S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 30.5S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 32.7S 175.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 34.0S 174.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 010 KT, GUSTS 020 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 24.1S 177.2E.
AT 040212 TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED 313 NM SSW OF SUVA.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z AND 031500Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN



---------------
Note that this advisory is written in one-minute average winds.

[P.K.]

Note that this advisory is written in one-minute average winds.

Shame... Nice while it lasted!

[HURAKAN]

very well-organized system

[HURAKAN]

20120402 1732 -25.5 -179.1 T3.5/3.5 18P DAPHNE

55 knots

[senorpepr]

Note that this advisory is written in one-minute average winds.

Shame... Nice while it lasted!

My personal feeling is... while using the international standard would be great, I feel JTWC needed to go back to one-minute averages. Considering the target audience of the JTWC (e.g. DoD and US interests), giving wind speeds in ten-minute averages may unintentionally get the impression that the storm is weaker than it is. (If a ship is reading a JTWC bulletin forecasting 100 kt [10-min] and they prepare for what they'd expect in 100 kt [1-min], they may be in store for a rough time)

Of course, I'd love to see the US measure meteorological parameters according to the WMO-standard... and join SI across the board. But that's a different thread...

[HURAKAN]

STORM WARNING 044
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone DAPHNE [985hPa] centre was located near 25.6 South 179.2 East at 021800 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 25.6S 179.2E at 021800 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast 30 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 50 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 300 nautical miles of centre in the northeast quadrant and within 240 nautical miles of centre in the southeast quadrant and within 90 nautical miles of centre in the southwest quadrant and within 240 nautical miles of centre in the northwest quadrant.

Forecast position near 30.2S 176.9W at 030600 UTC
and near 33.7S 172.1W at 031800 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 037.

[HURAKAN]

STORM WARNING 052
This affects ocean areas: SUBTROPIC and PACIFIC
Tropical Cyclone DAPHNE [985hPa] centre was located near 27.8 South 178.0 West at 030000 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 27.8S 178.0W at 030000 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast 25 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 50 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 48 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre in the sector from north through east to southeast and within 30 nautical miles of centre in the sector from southeast through southwest to north.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 240 nautical miles of centre in the southeast quadrant and within 120 nautical miles of centre in the sector from south through west to northwest and within 300 nautical miles of centre in the sector from northwest through northeast to east.

Forecast position near 31.6S 174.0W at 031200 UTC
and near 34.0S 170.0W at 040000 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 044.
Issued at 1:22pm Tuesday 3 Apr 2012

[senorpepr]

WTPS31 KNGU 030300
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DAPHNE) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DAPHNE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON TEN-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 27.8S 178.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
300 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8S 178.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 31.6S 174.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 34.0S 170.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 28.8S 177.0W.
AT 040300 TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED 744 NM E OF
KINGSTON ISLAND.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN

-----------------
...and back to 10-min averages. Respectfully, I think this is sort of a dangerous path to take. Flip-flopping between 10- and 1-minute averages, although not as significant for weaker systems, may cause problems down the road, especially for folks who aren't familiar with the difference.

[HURAKAN]

GALE WARNING 059
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone DAPHNE [986hPa] centre was located near 29.8 South 174.5 West at 030600 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 29.8S 174.5W at 030600 UTC.
Cyclone is moving eastsoutheast 35 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre easing to 40 knots by 031800 UTC.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 180 nautical miles of centre in the southeast quadrant and within 90 nautical miles of centre in the sector from south through west to northwest and within 240 nautical miles of centre in the sector from northwest through northeast to east.

Forecast position near 33.4S 170.9W at 031800 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 052.
Issued at 7:15pm Tuesday 3 Apr 2012

[HURAKAN]

not much left

[P.K.]

Gone ET.

GALE WARNING 077
This affects ocean areas: SUBTROPIC FORTIES and PACIFIC
AT 031800UTC
Low 997hPa, former Cyclone DAPHNE, near 33S 171W moving southeast 15kt.
1. In a belt 360 nautical miles wide centred on a line 29S 162W 36S 167W 40S 176W: Clockwise 40kt. Gale area moving southeast 5kt.
2. Outside area 1 and within 240 nautical miles of low in sector from northwest through northeast to east: Clockwise 40kt easing next 6-12 hours. Gale area moving southeast 15kt.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 070.

Issued at 7:12am Wednesday 4 Apr 2012