WPAC: TD 97W

[euro6208]

Southwest of Guam

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
254 PM CHST TUE APR 24 2012

PMZ161-171-250000-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
254 PM CHST TUE APR 24 2012

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST OF KOROR...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS FORMED SOUTHEAST OF KOROR AND SOUTH OF
YAP. THE BROAD CENTER OF CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF KOROR AND ABOUT 415 MILES SOUTH OF YAP NEAR 4N137E.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING
NGULU IN WESTERN YAP STATE...WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL
THROUGH TONIGHT.

AS THE DISTURBANCE DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ISLANDS OF KAYANGEL...KOROR AND
BABELDAOB IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU LATER THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY ALSO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

AT THIS TIME...RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUDSLIDES. SEAS NEAR KOROR WILL BUILD DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT HIGH SURF IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PEOPLE PLANNING INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY BOAT SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IF POSSIBLE...CHECK WITH THEIR WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE BEFORE ATTEMPTING SUCH TRAVEL. KEEP ALERT FOR ANY
LATER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.0N 137.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION OVER A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 232323Z SSMIS 37
GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD TURNING LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 240046Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED
LLCC WITH 05-10 KNOT CENTRAL WINDS AND 20-25 KNOT WINDS EMBEDDED
UNDER THE CONVERGENT CONVECTIVE AREA TO THE NORTH, LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 150 NM POLEWARD OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS THE LLCC JUST WEST OF A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE WITH BOTH
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED DIVERGENCE OCCURRING WEST OF THE LLCC. TO
THE EAST, OUTFLOW IS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BY UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH CONNECTS INTO WELL DEVELOPED TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS DEEP INTO
THE TROPICS BETWEEN 170-180 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK AT 05-10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AT 28-29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.0N 137.0E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.0N 135.0E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH OF PALAU.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE LLCC. A 241148Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE, CURVED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 241150Z
ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWED 15-20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED
WITHIN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT EASTERLY
FLOW, FAIR OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1018 AM CHST WED APR 25 2012

PMZ161-171-260000-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
1018 AM CHST WED APR 25 2012

...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS SOUTH OF KOROR...

THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS ROUGHLY NEAR
5N AND 135E AT 900 AM CHST. THIS WAS ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH OF KOROR.
THE DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS PERSISTED BETWEEN KOROR AND THE EQUATOR
FROM 130E TO 140E. THESE SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT ISLANDS NEAR
KOROR AND BABELDAOB AND AREAS SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING SONSOROL AND
TOBI. RAIN IN THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH 3 TO
5 INCHES AT SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS MAY ALSO INCREASE
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
TIME...RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MUDSLIDES.

SEAS NEAR KOROR WILL BUILD TO A RANGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND HAZARDOUS SURF IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PEOPLE PLANNING INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY BOAT SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND CHECK WITH THEIR WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE BEFORE ATTEMPTING SUCH TRAVEL. KEEP ALERT FOR ANY LATER
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.




TXPQ25 KNES 242146
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)

B. 24/2101Z

C. 5.0N

D. 136.6E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...POSITION OF 97W IS BASED ON CENTER OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
SINCE MICROWAVE IMAGERY IS INCONCLUSIVE. GT 2/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF
1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[euro6208]

Downgraded to Low

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.0N
135.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 136.0E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 250025Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED, POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL BANDING AND A DISTINCT LACK
OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE 25/00Z PTRO SOUNDING AS WELL AS THE LATEST
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP INDICATES AN INCREASINGLY MARGINAL
MOISTURE PROFILE WITH DRY AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS
LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS UNDER
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON
THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND LACK OF MODEL DEVELOPMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

[euro6208]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
903 AM CHST THU APR 26 2012

PMZ161-171-260300-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
903 AM CHST THU APR 26 2012

...THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF KOROR WEAKENED OVERNIGHT...

AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS ARE CENTERED AT ABOUT 4N AND 136E THIS
MORNING AND THAT IS ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KOROR. THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BUT ANY CIRCULATION NEAR THAT LOCATION
IS VERY WEAK AT THIS TIME.

SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS REMAIN SOUTH OF 6N EAST OF 134E. SEAS OF 4
TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

IT IS ALWAYS A GOOD IDEA FOR PEOPLE PLANNING INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY
BOAT TO MONITOR THE WEATHER...AND KEEP ALERT FOR STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL OFFICIALS OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared .. looking better organized

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.1N 127.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 155 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INTENSE CONVECTION THAT HAS
CONTINUED TO BUILD OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS. A 281913Z SSMI 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME CURVED BANDING ON
THE NORTHERN QUADRANT; HOWEVER, THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IS
POORLY ORGANIZED. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA, INCLUDING A 281541Z
OSCAT PASS, REVEALS A SHARP SURFACE WAVE RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SIMILARLY, THE 282100Z 850 MB
VORTICITY PRODUCT SHOWS A WAVE-LIKE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THIS AREA IS UNDER EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE IN THE EASTERLY
FLOW. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ESTIMATED TO BE 15-20 KNOTS. THE
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PROVIDING AMPLE EXHAUST, AIDING THE
INTENSE CONVECTION. THE 282300Z SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM DAVAO,
PHILIPPINES REPORTS WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT FOUR KNOTS, AND A SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1011 MB. THE CURRENT NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
NOT INDICATE THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE;
HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS WAVE TO TRANSITION INTO A
CLOSED LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 05N 128E WNW SLOWLY.



TXPQ25 KNES 290319
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)

B. 29/0232Z

C. 5.8N

D. 127.0E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS,
THE STORM APPEARS TO BE BETTER ORGANIZED. 4/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT
OF 2.5. MET AND PT ARE BOTH 1.5. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MYRGA

[euro6208]

I think this deserves to be our 3rd tropical storm this year...







The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[HURAKAN]

latest ASCAT, no closed LLC ... maybe a very weak one near 5N 128E ... the increase in convection was likely caused by the strong MLC

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 127.8E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 126.3E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH WEAKENING (WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES) YET PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION. A 290043Z METOP-A IMAGE INDICATES BROAD AND FRAGMENTED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 290042Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS TIGHT TROUGHING AND A
POSSIBLE WEAK CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 5N 129E WITH A STRONGER BAND
OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS JUST SOUTHEAST OF MINDANAO, LIKELY ENHANCED BY
THE TERRAIN. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM DAVAO CONTINUE TO INDICATE
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND SLP NEAR 1010MB WHILE ADDITIONAL
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LLCC INDICATE SLP VALUES RANGING FROM 1010 TO
1011MB. THE 290300Z UW-CIMSS 850 MB VORTICITY PRODUCT SHOWS A WAVE-
LIKE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY
OVER THE SYSTEM WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE, WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE
STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IS AIDING THE PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS NO MODEL DEVELOPMENT;
HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS WAVE TO TRANSITION INTO A
CLOSED LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009
MB. BASED ON THE PROXIMITY TO LAND AND WEAK LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[senorpepr]

WWJP25 RJTD 291200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 291200.
WARNING VALID 301200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN BOHAI YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 32N 144E 38N 142E
42N 142E 47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 49N 180E 46N 166E 37N
157E 32N 144E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 56N 140E ENE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 07N 126E WNW 10 KT.
HIGH 1030 HPA AT 45N 166E EAST 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 27N 106E TO 29N 114E 31N 123E 28N 131E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[senorpepr]

TPPN10 PGTW 291210

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W (DAVAO GULF)

B. 29/1132Z

C. 6.3N

D. 125.8E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

[senorpepr]

MTSAT infrared image of TD 97W as it crosses Mindanao. Convection at this time is very limited, and generally over the water. Development risk is significantly lowered at this time while overland.