WPAC: Invest 99W

[StormingB81]

Located 3N and 128E...Just below PI

[StormingB81]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.8N 132.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS STRONG 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS DISPLACED SOUTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM WITH WEAKER 10-15 KNOT CENTRAL WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH WEAK RIDGING IN AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10 KNOTS) AND MODERATE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

[senorpepr]

Awfully low latitude...

ABPW10 PGTW 062030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/062030Z-070600ZMAY2012//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.8N
132.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.7N 132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BUILDING,
YET FRAGMENTED, DEEP CONVECTION. A 061541Z OSCAT PASS INDICATES 15-
20 KNOT NORTHWESTERLIES OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A
061656Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS VERY BROAD TURING AND SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION WEST OF THE LLCC. SHIP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS A FEW
DEGREES TO THE WEST SUGGEST A PRESSURE OF 1007 MB AND WINDS ON
AVERAGE 12-17 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC TO BE
UNDER AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WEAK (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
LOCATED NORTH OF THE LLCC WHICH IS IMPEDING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW;
HOWEVER, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. ANIMATED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW CONVERGENCE BUT THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS TO THE EAST
STREAMING IN ON THE TRADES IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY THINNING OUT THE
DRY AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//

[francis327]

Remain Medium

ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZMAY2012//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.7N
132.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.2N 130.2E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN UNORGANIZED AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS LITTLE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. A 070117Z ASCAT PASS
DEPICTS AN AREA OF TROUGHING WITH STRONG 15 TO 20 KNOT WESTERLY
WINDS SOUTH OF 10 TO 15 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH, EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR, IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. DUE TO THE MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

its still there near the southern philippines