EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[gotoman38]

Looks like they're climbing out. Last pass was made at 1500m

[gotoman38]

URPN15 KNHC 251912
AF302 0202E BUD HDOB 45 20120525
190400 1910N 10427W 4531 06645 0351 -084 -099 252022 024 /// /// 03
190430 1910N 10425W 4502 06700 0353 -091 //// 251023 028 /// /// 05
190500 1910N 10423W 4455 06769 0358 -094 //// 250029 032 /// /// 05
190530 1911N 10421W 4412 06847 0360 -090 //// 234032 038 /// /// 05
190600 1911N 10419W 4329 06994 0371 -099 //// 248024 027 /// /// 05
190630 1911N 10417W 4304 07043 0373 -105 //// 229023 029 /// /// 05
190700 1912N 10415W 4169 07267 0388 -111 //// 190021 025 /// /// 05
190730 1912N 10413W 4154 07306 0391 -115 //// 196028 038 /// /// 05
190800 1912N 10411W 4031 07535 0400 -121 //// 195029 031 /// /// 05
190830 1912N 10409W 3953 07672 0411 -141 //// 153018 025 /// /// 05
190900 1913N 10406W 3922 07745 0420 -147 //// 191017 023 /// /// 05
190930 1913N 10404W 3924 07740 0420 -149 -154 107011 014 /// /// 03
191000 1913N 10401W 3925 07739 0421 -148 -169 041005 011 /// /// 03
191030 1914N 10359W 3927 07733 0422 -142 -210 004002 006 /// /// 03
191100 1914N 10356W 3926 07739 0423 -143 -211 028000 002 /// /// 03
191130 1914N 10353W 3922 07746 0424 -149 -187 255003 005 /// /// 03
191200 1915N 10351W 3927 07736 0423 -144 -206 327002 005 /// /// 03
191230 1915N 10348W 3925 07739 0423 -142 -220 324006 007 /// /// 03
191300 1915N 10346W 3893 07802 0427 -153 -203 330006 007 /// /// 03
191330 1915N 10343W 3855 07876 0433 -157 -216 333004 005 /// /// 03
$$

[gotoman38]

URPN12 KNHC 251913
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP022012
A. 25/18:41:50Z
B. 18 deg 58 min N
105 deg 30 min W
C. 850 mb 1377 m
D. NA
E. NA
F. 325 deg 53 kt
G. 220 deg 22 nm
H. 995 mb
I. 17 C / 1524 m
J. 19 C / 1523 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0202E BUD OB 21
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 80 KT NE QUAD 18:52:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 213 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR

[gotoman38]

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZPN13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 19:06Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Bud (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 23

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 19Z on the 25th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 19.3N 105.1W
Map this location: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... lon=-105.1
Location: 94 miles (151 km) to the S (175°) from Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, México.

Level: Geo. Height / Air Temp. / Dew Point / Wind Direction / Wind Speed
1004mb (29.65 inHg): Sea Level (Surface) / 25.4°C (77.7°F) / 23.4°C (74.1°F) / 125° (from the SE) / 48 knots (55 mph)
1000mb: 39m (128 ft) / 25.0°C (77.0°F) / 23.3°C (73.9°F) / 130° (from the SE) / 47 knots (54 mph)
925mb: 722m (2,369 ft) / 21.8°C (71.2°F) / 19.3°C (66.7°F) / 140° (from the SE) / 62 knots (71 mph)
850mb: 1,455m (4,774 ft) / 18.2°C (64.8°F) / 16.7°C (62.1°F) / 140° (from the SE) / 74 knots (85 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 18:52Z

Remarks Section...

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in maximum wind band.

Splash Location: 19.32N 105.1W
Splash Time: 18:55Z

Release Location: 19.28N 105.06W
Map this location: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... on=-105.06
Release Time: 18:52:26Z

Splash Location: 19.31N 105.1W
Map this location: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... lon=-105.1
Splash Time: 18:55:07Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters):
- Wind: 135° (from the SE) at 52 knots (60 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth):
- Wind: 140° (from the SE) at 61 knots (70 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 1004mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm):
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind: 130° (from the SE) at 48 knots (55 mph)

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...

Level: Air Temp. / Dew Point
1004mb (Surface): 25.4°C (77.7°F) / 23.4°C (74.1°F)
956mb: 22.2°C (72.0°F) / 21.3°C (70.3°F)
877mb: 20.0°C (68.0°F) / 15.6°C (60.1°F)
850mb: 18.2°C (64.8°F) / 16.7°C (62.1°F)
843mb: 17.2°C (63.0°F) / 16.7°C (62.1°F)

Significant Wind Levels...

Level: Wind Direction / Wind Speed
1004mb (Surface): 125° (from the SE) / 48 knots (55 mph)
970mb: 135° (from the SE) / 51 knots (59 mph)
941mb: 145° (from the SE) / 61 knots (70 mph)
907mb: 140° (from the SE) / 60 knots (69 mph)
854mb: 140° (from the SE) / 74 knots (85 mph)
843mb: 140° (from the SE) / 73 knots (84 mph)

---

Original Undecoded Observation:

UZPN13 KNHC 251906
XXAA 75198 99193 71051 04795 99004 25420 12548 00039 25017 13047
92722 21825 14062 85455 18215 14074 88999 77999
31313 09608 81852
61616 AF302 0202E BUD OB 23
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1932N10510W 1855 MBL WND 13552 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 14061 004843 WL150 13048 084 REL 1928N10506W 185226 SPG 1931N1
0510W 185507 =
XXBB 75198 99193 71051 04795 00004 25420 11956 22209 22877 20044
33850 18215 44843 17205
21212 00004 12548 11970 13551 22941 14561 33907 14060 44854 14074
55843 14073
31313 09608 81852
61616 AF302 0202E BUD OB 23
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1932N10510W 1855 MBL WND 13552 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 14061 004843 WL150 13048 084 REL 1928N10506W 185226 SPG 1931N1
0510W 185507 =

[Evil Jeremy]

So a noticeable shift south in the model consensus in the 12z suite:
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

vs the 06z suite:
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

However, it is very interesting that it seems the GFDL and HWRF models were not run for the 12z cycle. They have not appeared on any of the model sites, at least the ones I track.

[gotoman38]

URPN15 KNHC 251922
AF302 0202E BUD HDOB 46 20120525
191400 1916N 10340W 3813 07960 0439 -163 -209 306005 005 /// /// 03
191430 1916N 10338W 3774 08036 0445 -167 -223 278004 005 /// /// 03
191500 1916N 10335W 3732 08119 0450 -178 -208 267002 003 /// /// 03
191530 1917N 10333W 3695 08194 0454 -179 -203 272002 004 /// /// 03
191600 1917N 10330W 3654 08278 0459 -180 -262 038003 006 /// /// 03
191630 1917N 10327W 3615 08358 0465 -187 -292 043007 008 /// /// 03
191700 1917N 10325W 3575 08442 0472 -189 -305 050007 008 /// /// 03
191730 1918N 10322W 3541 08513 0478 -195 -322 050006 007 /// /// 03
191800 1918N 10320W 3505 08590 0481 -201 -331 037008 008 /// /// 03
191830 1918N 10317W 3469 08660 0482 -209 -330 038009 010 /// /// 03
191900 1918N 10315W 3432 08739 0487 -216 -327 037008 010 /// /// 03
191930 1918N 10312W 3397 08814 0493 -221 -314 021010 012 /// /// 03
192000 1919N 10310W 3361 08891 0499 -227 -334 017013 013 /// /// 03
192030 1919N 10307W 3326 08967 0504 -233 -364 013013 013 /// /// 03
192100 1919N 10305W 3292 09046 0510 -241 -375 008013 013 /// /// 03
192130 1919N 10302W 3256 09124 0515 -248 -375 015013 013 /// /// 03
192200 1919N 10300W 3222 09201 0520 -254 -371 016012 013 /// /// 03
192230 1920N 10257W 3187 09280 0526 -263 -358 010012 013 /// /// 03
192300 1920N 10255W 3157 09348 0530 -270 -342 006013 014 /// /// 03
192330 1920N 10253W 3146 09373 0529 -275 -321 005014 015 /// /// 03
$$

[Bocadude85]

So a noticeable shift south in the model consensus in the 12z suite:
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

vs the 06z suite:
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

However, it is very interesting that it seems the GFDL and HWRF models were not run for the 12z cycle. They have not appeared on any of the model sites, at least the ones I track.

Both maps are identical....

[Aric Dunn]

if you look real close a bunch of the consensus models have landfall as far south as cape canaveral.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

I think you meant to say that a few of the individual GFS ensemble members are that far south. The only consensus model plotted on there (TVCN) is all the way up in Georgia.

yeah opps.. thanks

[Aric Dunn]

little better resolution on the 12z Euro. looks like it has it coming in near daytona.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[gotoman38]

Adios Bud. Looks like we can close the book on recon for the first major of the season in the EPAC.



URPN11 KNHC 251928
97779 19274 61194 02518 88400 99005 78793 /6972
RMK AF302 0202E BUD OB 25
LAST REPORT

[Dean4Storms]

Check out the NAM from 06z........
998mb with 80kt winds

http://policlimate.com/weather/wrf/hire ... conus.html

[Dean4Storms]

Btw, this site is great for models of everything........

http://policlimate.com/weather/

[Evil Jeremy]

So a noticeable shift south in the model consensus in the 12z suite:
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

vs the 06z suite:
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

However, it is very interesting that it seems the GFDL and HWRF models were not run for the 12z cycle. They have not appeared on any of the model sites, at least the ones I track.

Both maps are identical....

Sorry, i mixed up links. Fixed it.

[bg1]

Check out the NAM from 06z........
998mb with 80kt winds

http://policlimate.com/weather/wrf/hire ... conus.html

That sort of pressure is high for an 80 kt system, more like a 45 kt system. Are background pressures expected to be that high?

[LarryWx]

Check out the NAM from 06z........
998mb with 80kt winds

http://policlimate.com/weather/wrf/hire ... conus.html

Isn't that up at 900 mb rather than at the surface?

[cycloneye]

All the models in one graphic.

[Aric Dunn]

All the models in one graphic.

[ig]http://i48.tinypic.com/28sr6o8.jpg[/img]

whats the link to that page ?

[Dean4Storms]

Check out the NAM from 06z........
998mb with 80kt winds

http://policlimate.com/weather/wrf/hire ... conus.html

Isn't that up at 900 mb rather than at the surface?

Yes, but pretty much borderline Hurricane at the surface if this plays out!

[cycloneye]

All the models in one graphic.

[ig]http://i48.tinypic.com/28sr6o8.jpg[/img]

whats the link to that page ?

There you go!

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/

[cycloneye]

12z WRF.



http://policlimate.com/weather/