WPAC: SANVU - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

it is 126 am and it is raining really hard as this depression soon to be tropical storm passes near us...

[HURAKAN]

Continues to become better organized

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211800UTC 11.7N 145.1E POOR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 221800UTC 13.0N 143.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Tropical Storm 03W has amazing structure.

[euro6208]

Tropical Storm 03W has amazing structure.

could it be possible that 03W is stronger than what dvorak is saying (2.5)? look at alberto, it looks weak ever since it got upgraded and dvorak is low but look at what recon is finding. they like to underestimate storms...

[euro6208]

TROPICAL STORM WARNING!

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 212147
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 03W ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032012
800 AM CHST TUE MAY 22 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM 03W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 144.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT

60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
115 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROTA
180 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND
195 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN.

TROPICAL STORM 03W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 40 MPH. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON
GUAM AND ROTA. PEAK WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY SHOWERS.

REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...12.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
144.1 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 11 AM CHST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AT 2 PM CHST. ADVISORY AT

$$

AYDLETT/WILLIAMS



000
WGMY80 PGUM 212104
FLSMY

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
704 AM CHST TUE MAY 22 2012

GUC010-220000-
/O.NEW.PGUM.FA.Y.0001.120521T2104Z-120522T0000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GUAM GU-
704 AM CHST TUE MAY 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN GUAM HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN...GUAM...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...YIGO...TAMUNING...FINEGAYAN
STATION...BARRIGADA...MANGILAO...DEDEDO...APRA HARBOR...ANDERSEN
AFB...AGANA HEIGHTS...AGAT...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CHST

* AT 702 AM CHST WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM 03W. THIS BAND WILL CAUSE BRIEF HEAVY
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT BRIEF FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 1357 14498 1319 14472 1344 14455 1352 14457
1369 14488

$$

ZIOBRO




000
WWGM80 PGUM 212051
AWWGUM
GUZ001-220800-

AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR GUAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM
700 AM CHST TUE MAY 22 2012

A HIGH WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GUAM INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT UNTIL 600 PM CHST. SURFACE WINDS AT THE AIRPORT WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST...150 DEGREES...AT 15 TO 25 KT. GUSTS OF UP TO 35 KT
COULD OCCUR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

$$

AYDLETT

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Tropical Storm 03W has amazing structure.

could it be possible that 03W is stronger than what dvorak is saying (2.5)? look at alberto, it looks weak ever since it got upgraded and dvorak is low but look at what recon is finding. they like to underestimate storms...

I believe Tropical Storm 03W is undergoing rapid intensification right now. An eye is popping out on visible/rgb imagery.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Best looking un-named system I've ever seem, JMA better upgrade this at 00z!

Look forward to hearing more reports from our friend on Guam. You can clearly see the centre whizzing past Guam now on radar loop:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=GUA&product=NCR&overlay=11100111&loop=yes

[cycloneye]

JMA Upgrades to Tropical Storm SANVU

TS 1202 (SANVU)
Issued at 01:05 UTC, 22 May 2012
<Analyses at 22/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°00'(13.0°)
E144°10'(144.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

[RL3AO]

One of those WPac storms you're just waiting to go BOOM.

[dowdavek]

Here in Guam, not so bad right now. Expecting things to get interesting a little later (just in time for me to drive to work ). So far it's breezy with a lot of rain. The power has only gone out once and it's already back on. Let's hope it stays that way. Will keep updating as long as the power/internet is up.

[Infdidoll]

And to think...The weather is beautiful on Okinawa, today, and I just had some friends take off down to Guam a few days ago for a "vacation". That's what they get for bragging.

Good-looking storm developing.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1000.1mb/ 43.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.5 2.5

[JTE50]

36 years ago on May 21st 140 mph typhoon Pamela hit Guam hard. I saw this one spin up and it reminded me of that one track wise - we'd never get a 140 hurricane this time of year in the Atlantic but in the vast warm Pacific it's a different story.

Obs from Andersen AFB can be found here on twitter too: @Guam_Weather

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (SANVU) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 13.4N 144.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 144.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 14.9N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.5N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.2N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 20.2N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 23.5N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 26.5N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 30.6N 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 143.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM WEST OF
ANDERSEN AIR FORCE BASE, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
220000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND
230300Z.
//

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1202 SANVU (1202) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220000UTC 13.0N 144.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 230000UTC 14.6N 141.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 240000UTC 16.4N 139.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 250000UTC 18.7N 138.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[dexterlabio]

this is when i enjoy looking around the pacific.



IR imagery.




I think it's not bad to say this is gonna be the 2nd typhoon as per JTWC and 1st official typhoon of this season as per JMA. Looks like it's on its way to steady consolidation.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Still lacking deep convection near the centre, and Dvorak estimates held at T2.5 by the agencies over the last 6 hours or so, it's got a bit more work to do. Looks like the worst weather should be clearing Guam soon.

[dexterlabio]

also to mention the warming cloud tops. this is gonna take some time to pump up.

[euro6208]

it has stopped raining at the moment and it is breezy. looking at the radar, it looks like a band of heavy convection might pass us but our neighbors to our north might not get lucky.




000
WTPQ31 PGUM 220319
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANVU (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032012
200 PM CHST TUE MAY 22 2012

...TROPICAL STORM 03W NOW NAMED SANVU...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 03W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.8 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT

70 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
95 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ROTA
145 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN AND
160 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN.

TROPICAL STORM SANVU IS STILL MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. SANVU IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL COURSE AND SPEED DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED HAVE INCREASED TO 45 MPH. SANVU SHOULD CONTINUE
SLOWLY INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
GUAM AND ROTA. PEAK WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 50 MPH COULD OCCUR IN HEAVY SHOWERS.

REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...13.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
143.8 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 PM CHST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY THIS EVENING AT 8 PM CHST.

$$

MCELROY/STANKO


WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (SANVU) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM WEST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
REVEALS THAT TS 03W HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS AND IS NOW A TIGHTLY WRAPPED, SYMMETRIC SYSTEM. THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION IS WITHIN A BAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WHILE
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SUPPRESSED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THIS ASSESSMENT IS SUPPORTED BY A 212244Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM HAS A CLEAR BANDING EYE FEATURE ON RADAR.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR FIXES FROM PGUA WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE MOST RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 35
KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD; HOWEVER, THE LACK OF CONVECTION ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY IS PERHAPS RESULTING IN A SLIGHT UNDER-
ESTIMATE. RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON GUAM SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 40 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE NORTH OF TS 03W, WHICH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH AND LIKELY CAUSING THE
SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION. TS 03W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO
THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. RADIAL
OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD, WITH A POSSIBLE NEW TUTT CELL FORMING TO THE
NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM
MAY BE INTERACTING WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST, FURTHER ENHANCING
OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LIGHT, AT 10
KNOTS, AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS FAVORABLE AT 29-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. AN EXTENSION OF THE STR TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, EXTENDING FROM A
LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF JAPAN, INTERACTS WITH THE RIDGING.
TS 03W SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS WEST OF GUAM AND SAIPAN, TRACKING
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARDS AROUND THE ERODING STR PERIPHERY. AFTER TAU
48 THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR TOWARDS A RE-CURVATURE
INTO THE MID- LATITUDES. THE INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH TAU 48 AS THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS AT TAU 48. AFTER TAU
48, THE INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DUE TO AN INCREASE IN VWS
AND DECREASE IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, WHICH DROPS OFF POLEWARD OF 24
DEGREES NORTH.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 03W IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OF THE STR AXIS
AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE, WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY ZONAL AND POLEWARD OF ABOUT 30 DEGREES NORTH.
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) SHOULD BEGIN AFTER TAU 72 WITH
COMPLETION INTO THE WESTERLIES AFTER TAU 96. MOST MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, SHOWING THE SYSTEM FULLY INCORPORATED
IN THE MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY TAU 120. THE GFS AND COAMPS
MODELS ARE THE RIGHT-MOST TRACK OUTLIERS, AND THEREFORE FASTEST TO
RE-CURVE, WHILE THE NOGAPS AND WBAR ARE ON THE LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE,
WITH GFDN IN-BETWEEN. THE UKMET AND JGSM MODELS ARE FURTHER WEST,
TAKING 03W INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE EXTENSION, WITH A WEAKER MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH THAT DOES NOT INITIATE RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL
JTWC TRACK FORECAST STAYS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONW DURING THE
FIRST 36 HOURS, THEN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE CONW AFTER THAT TIME,
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT UKMET AND JGSM, WHICH ARE SLOWING THE CONSENSUS
DOWN.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

As long as it stays away from Okinawa...even though I am sure it will be long gone I want nothing around here next Saturday when I fly.....lol