WPAC: SANVU - Post-Tropical

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1202 SANVU (1202)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220600UTC 13.9N 143.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 230600UTC 15.6N 140.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 240600UTC 18.0N 139.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 250600UTC 20.7N 139.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

[cycloneye]

TS 1202 (SANVU)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 22 May 2012
<Analyses at 22/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°25'(14.4°)
E142°20'(142.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 23/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°25'(15.4°)
E141°00'(141.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 23/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°40'(16.7°)
E140°00'(140.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 24/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°00'(19.0°)
E139°20'(139.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 25/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°25'(21.4°)
E140°05'(140.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

[Chacor]

Here's the 5-day forecast

WTPQ50 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1202 SANVU (1202)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 14.4N 142.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 16.7N 140.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 241200UTC 19.0N 139.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 251200UTC 21.4N 140.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 261200UTC 24.3N 141.0E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
120HF 271200UTC 27.8N 143.2E 450NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT =

You can get the plain text advisories at http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt ... .rjtd..txt rather than copying them from the JMA site and losing the formatting, making it hard to read.

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (SANVU) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 14.8N 142.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 142.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.3N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.0N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.5N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.2N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 25.0N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 28.6N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 33.4N 151.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 141.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM SOUTH
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W WARNING NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM SOUTH
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AND CONVECTION HAS RESURGED, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE NORTHEAST FLANK. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE
ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 220804Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE WEST AND NORTHEAST
OF TS 03W ARE CAUSING MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW EQUATORWARD OF THE SYSTEM. THESE ARE EVIDENT ON
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. TS 03W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION TO
THE NORTHEAST. LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AT 05-10 KNOTS AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE ALSO
CONTRIBUTING TO THE CYCLONE'S CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING
STR OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND PEAK AT 75 KNOTS
BY TAU 48 BEFORE RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE
STRONG WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL
PROVIDE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PRIOR TO RECURVATURE. THIS, IN ADDITION TO
THE LIGHT VWS AND WARM SST, WILL FUEL THE INTENSIFICATION.
C. BY TAU 72, TS SANVU 03W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SST WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, TS
03W WILL HAVE BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
COMPLETED ETT. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN A TIGHTER
ENVELOPE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS (CONW) EXCEPT DURING THE EXTENDED TAUS WHERE
IT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONW TO ACCOUNT FOR KNOWN MODEL TENDENCIES
DURING ETT. //
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Thanks Chacor for posting the link.

WTPQ50 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1202 SANVU (1202)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221800UTC 15.1N 141.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 130NM
FORECAST
24HF 231800UTC 17.4N 139.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 241800UTC 19.6N 139.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 251800UTC 21.8N 140.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 261800UTC 24.8N 142.1E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
120HF 271800UTC 28.3N 144.4E 450NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT =

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (SANVU) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 15.7N 141.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 141.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.2N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.6N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.0N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.6N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 24.6N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 27.4N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 31.7N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 141.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.
//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (SANVU) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDING, WITH
OVERALL DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 221534Z TRMM
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD RANGING BETWEEN 35-45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
POINT SOURCE OVER TS 03W AND INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT)CELL TO THE EAST PROVIDING FAIR OUTFLOW; HOWEVER THIS
OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY BEING LIMITED AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT. A DEEP MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE SEA OF JAPAN TO LUZON, PHILIPPINES IS
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THIS FEATURE NEARS. LIGHT (10 KNOT)
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST) AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE
CYCLONE'S CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. TS 03W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSITY AS IT ROUNDS THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING STR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE
RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD. THE PEAK FORECAST INTENSITY IS 75 KNOTS AT
TAU 48. THE INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PRIOR
TO RECURVATURE. THIS, IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT VWS AND WARM SST,
WILL FUEL THE INTENSIFICATION.
C. BY TAU 72, TS SANVU 03W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
INCREASING VWS AND RAPIDLY COOLING SST POLEWARD OF 24 DEGREES NORTH
WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, TS 03W WILL HAVE BECOME FULLY
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETED ETT. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
OUTLIERS. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS
(CONW) EXCEPT DURING THE EXTENDED TAUS WHERE IT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN CONW TO ACCOUNT FOR
KNOWN MODEL TENDENCIES DURING ETT.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

with each update from euro, sanvu keeps getting stronger and stronger.

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 222120
TCSWNP

A. 03W (SANVU)

B. 22/2032Z

C. 15.9N

D. 141.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...8/10 BROKEN BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET = 3.0. PT =
3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GUILLOT

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 990.1mb/ 55.0kt

[cycloneye]

WTPQ50 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1202 SANVU (1202)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 15.7N 141.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 130NM
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 18.0N 139.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 250000UTC 20.4N 139.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 260000UTC 22.7N 140.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 270000UTC 25.4N 143.0E 280NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
120HF 280000UTC 29.3N 146.2E 375NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT =

[CrazyC83]

22/2032 UTC 15.9N 141.5E T3.5/3.5 SANVU

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (SANVU) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 16.4N 140.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 140.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.9N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.3N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.6N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.2N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 25.4N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 28.8N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 140.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM SOUTH
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.
//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (SANVU) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
REVEALS TS 03W HAS MAINTAINED ITS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING, WITH THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION CONCENTRATED IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WHILE
CONVECTION IS LARGELY SUPPRESSED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN OVERALL INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A
222040Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE ABOVE MSI AND SSMIS IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS FROM RJTD, PGTW, AND KNES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE OVER TS 03W, WITH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINING LIGHT AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT OUTFLOW HAS BECOME
MARGINALLY BETTER OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS; HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS
STILL NOT FULLY INTERACTING WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) REMAINS FAVORABLE AT 29-30
DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 03W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT ROUNDS THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING STR OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, BEFORE
RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD. THE PEAK FORECAST INTENSITY PRIOR TO
RECURVATURE IS 75 KNOTS. THE STRONG WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PRIOR TO
RECURVATURE. THIS, IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT VWS AND WARM SST, WILL
FUEL THE INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, THE VWS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AND THE SST WILL DECREASE, BEGINNING THE DISSIPATION OF TS
03W.
C. BY TAU 72, TS 03W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND
COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). INCREASING VWS AND RAPIDLY
COOLING SST NORTH OF 24 DEGREES NORTH WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
RAPIDLY. BY TAU 96, TS 03W WILL HAVE BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETED ETT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT SPEED OF FORWARD MOTION AFTER RECURVATURE,
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED, WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. ADDITIONALLY, THE SINGLE MODEL ENSEMBLE
PRODUCTS ALSO SHOW VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE MEMBERS. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS (CONW) AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

should be very close to a typhoon...if not then it is a typhoon already...

[euro6208]

it looks like it might start to rapidly intensify. tremendous outflow .

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (SANVU) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 17.0N 140.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 140.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.5N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.1N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.6N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 23.0N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 26.0N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 29.6N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 139.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTH
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 22 FT.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. //
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W WARNING NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE FEEDER BANDS, MOSTLY ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, HAVE WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS SHOWING EARLY
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE
ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM AN ARC FEATURE ON A 230437Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON THE HIGH
END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 03W IS DIRECTLY UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE FRONT SLOPE OF
AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST IS ENHANCING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THIS IS EVIDENT ON RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS BUT NOT AS ROBUST AS THE POLEWARD SIDE. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT VWS
AND GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW, THE ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST) AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS, IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. IN VIEW OF THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE, TS 03W IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE STEERING STR OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS BEFORE RECURVING TO THE
NORTHEAST, PEAKING AT 75 KNOTS. THE STRONG WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PRIOR TO
AND RIGHT AFTER RECURVATURE. THIS, IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT VWS AND
WARM SST, WILL FUEL THE INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING VWS
AND COOLING SST'S WILL CAUSE THE RAPID DECAY OF TS 03W. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE SYSTEM'S EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND
ABSORPTION INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
C. BY TAU 72, TS SANVU WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY PACKED, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR'S LEFTWARD DEFLECTION
AFTER TAU 48. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS
(CONW) BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF AND FASTER THAN CONW AFTER TAU 48
TO ACCOUNT FOR EGRR'S UNLIKELY LEFTWARD DEFLECTION AND FOR KNOWN
MODELS' TENDENCY TO SLOW DOWN DURING RECURVATURE. //
NNNN

i wouldnt be surprised if this is a typhoon already.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Looks like it's starting to tighten up nicely on IR satellite! Should easily become a typhoon soon.

[Chacor]

Nearing STS…
WTPQ50 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1202 SANVU (1202)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 16.7N 139.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 170NM NORTHEAST 130NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 19.2N 138.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 251200UTC 21.5N 139.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 261200UTC 23.5N 141.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 271200UTC 26.3N 144.6E 280NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
120HF 281200UTC 30.2N 148.8E 375NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT =

[cycloneye]

WTPQ50 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1202 SANVU (1202)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 17.8N 139.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 170NM NORTHEAST 130NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 241800UTC 20.0N 139.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 251800UTC 22.2N 140.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 261800UTC 24.1N 141.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 271800UTC 27.4N 145.5E 280NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
120HF 281800UTC 31.5N 150.0E 375NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT =

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The first typhoon of the 2012 Pacific typhoon season, Sanvu.

[Extratropical94]

The first typhoon of the 2012 Pacific typhoon season, Sanvu.

I didn't see JMA upgrade it to typhoon status.
They are the official agency in the WPAC basin.

Even if you are talking about JTWC's bulletins, it's still not the first typhoon because Pakhar was rated Cat. 1 by them (and a TS by JMA)

[cycloneye]

Still a Tropical Storm per JMA 00:00 UTC.

WTPQ50 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1202 SANVU (1202)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 18.6N 139.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 170NM NORTHEAST 130NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 21.2N 139.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 260000UTC 23.2N 141.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 270000UTC 24.9N 143.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 280000UTC 28.7N 147.0E 280NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
120HF 290000UTC 33.2N 152.6E 375NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT =