WTPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 14.9N 125.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 125.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.4N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.5N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.5N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.6N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 22.3N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 26.2N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 29.8N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 125.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAWAR) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND A
010442Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A DISTINCT CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35
KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT,
NEARLY RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL NEAR GUAM AND AN
ANTICYCLONE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 04W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM A
STRONG HIGH NEAR 30N 170W. THE 500 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
HAS ALLOWED TS 04W TO SLOW IN TRANSLATION SPEED. THE STEERING RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW TS 04W TO TURN POLEWARD.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHARP RE-CURVE SCENARIO DUE TO
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. THE UKMO MODEL TRACKS
THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTHWARD NEAR OKINAWA, WHICH IS UNLIKELY DUE TO
THE STRONG WESTERLIES FORECAST TO DIP OVER OKINAWA. THIS FORECAST IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72. TS 04W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTERACT
WITH MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. TS 04W WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
OVER COOLER SST (LESS THAN 25C) AND INTO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN NEAR TAU 96 AND
COMPLETE ETT AFTER TAU 120 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL SOUTH OF JAPAN. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK DUE TO THE RELATIVELY ZONAL WESTERLY JET
FORECAST BY ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER (AND
WELL SOUTH OF) JAPAN. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK EAST OF
OKINAWA BUT MAY PRODUCE INCREASED WINDS AS THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE
HIGH.//
NNNN
soaking the philippines...
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 996.5mb/ 47.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.1 3.9
currently sitting over high heat content
