SWIO: KUENA - Post-Tropical

[Extratropical94]

Just for the archive:

90SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-58S-670E

Located in the Indian Ocean, far away from any bigger landmass.

[Extratropical94]

This is from MFR La Reunion (June 04, 1200Z):

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
Near Equatorial Trough waves along 05S axis east of 55E.
Convective activity remains moderate to strong north of 12S from 60E to 70E.
According to the recent animated coloured composite satellite imagery, a low to mid-levels
clockwise circulation is approximately centred at 0900Z near 8S/64E.
MSLP is estimated at 1005 hPa with maximum winds at 10/15 kt reaching 20/25 kt in the southern
semi-circle due to the gradient effect.
Without equatorward inflow and as the east-northeasterly vertical windshear is expected to remain
moderate within the next few days, no significant intensification is expected for this low that should
move west to westward for the next 24 hours, and turn west to north-westward beyond.
Development of a tropical depression is not expected for the next 72 hours.

Not looking too bad though:

[P.K.]

WTIO30 FMEE 050706
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/14/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14
2.A POSITION 2012/06/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 62.2 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/0 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/06/05 18 UTC: 9.3 S / 60.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/06/06 06 UTC: 9.4 S / 58.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2012/06/06 18 UTC: 9.3 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/06/07 06 UTC: 9.0 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2012/06/07 18 UTC: 8.6 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
72H: 2012/06/08 06 UTC: 8.4 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE
TO GRADIENT EFFECT, DURING THE TRADES WIND SURGE.
VERTIACL WIND SHEAR IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS,
SO THE SYSTEM MAY DEEPEN, TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARDS.=

[P.K.]

Upgraded.

WTIO30 FMEE 051225
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/14/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14
2.A POSITION 2012/06/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.4 S / 61.4 E
(NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.1/2.1/D 0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/06/06 00 UTC: 9.7 S / 59.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/06/06 12 UTC: 9.5 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/06/07 00 UTC: 9.2 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2012/06/07 12 UTC: 8.9 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2012/06/08 00 UTC: 8.8 S / 53.8 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+.
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT, DURING T
HE TRADES WIND SURGE.
THE SYSTEM HAS A SHEARED PATTERN, BUT THE CENTRE HAS BECOME CLOSER FROM CONVECTION. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS, SO THE SYSTEM MAY DEEPEN, TRACKING GENERALLY
WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

[P.K.]

18Z advisory on 14R just out.

WTIO30 FMEE 051847

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/14/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14

2.A POSITION 2012/06/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.4 S / 60.3 E
(NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 90
34 KT NE: SE: 70 SW: 70 NW:



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/06/06 06 UTC: 9.5 S / 58.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/06/06 18 UTC: 9.4 S / 56.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/06/07 06 UTC: 9.2 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2012/06/07 18 UTC: 9.0 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2012/06/08 06 UTC: 8.9 S / 53.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
LAST AVALAIBLE ANIMATED IR PICTURES DEPICT A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION.
SYSTEM KEEPS ON DEEPENING.
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ACCURATELY.
THE WINDFIELD STRUCTURE SHOULD REMAIN ASSYMETRIC WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE POSITIVE IMPACT OF THE DIMINISHING UPPER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, SHOULD BE OUTBALANCED BY THE WEAKENING OF THE POLEWARD UPPER DIVERGENCE FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT 18/24 HOURS.
SO, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER FAVOURABLE FOR THE NEXT 18/24 HOURS AND SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON DEEPENING, AND TRACK GLOBALLY WESTWARD ON THE NORTH FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BELT.

[Yellow Evan]

Only four replies for an off-season storm? Omg. I'm waiting on Maurtius Met Service.

[Chacor]

Upgraded to moderate tropical storm. Waiting on a name.

WTIO30 FMEE 060023

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/14/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 14

2.A POSITION 2012/06/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.4 S / 59.4 E
(NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :1869 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 40 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 60



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/06/06 12 UTC: 9.5 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/06/07 00 UTC: 9.5 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/06/07 12 UTC: 9.5 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2012/06/08 00 UTC: 9.2 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2012/06/08 12 UTC: 9.1 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0
SYSTEM HAS HELD ITS CDO PATTERN OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE 21.58Z NOAA19 PICTURE(CHANNEL 3) CONFIRMS THAT THE LLCC IS NOW LOCATED UNDER THE CONVECTION, AND DISPLAYS VERY GOOD POLAR OUTFLOW.

ASCAT DATA AT 17.20Z DEPICT A VERY ASYMMETRICAL WINDFIELD STRUCTURE WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE, THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE POSITIVE IMPACT OF THE DIMINISHING UPPER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) WITHIN THE NEXT 24/30 HOURS, SHOULD BE OUTBALANCED BY THE WEAKENING OF THE POLEWARD UPPER DIVERGENCE.
SO, INTENSIFICATION SHOULD SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT 24/30 HOURS.
ON AND AFTER 36TAU, VWS SHOULD STRENGTHEN CLEARLY AND SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY.
SYSTEM TRACKS GLOBALLY WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BELT. THE ACTUAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE LAST ECMWF OUTCOME.

[Chacor]

WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 9.3S 59.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 59.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 9.4S 57.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 9.5S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 9.4S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 8.9S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 7.2S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 4.5S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 58.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEPENED CONVECTION AND IMPROVED BANDING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS IS EVIDENT ON A 052149Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND LENDS FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE AGGREGATE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, FMEE, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 20S IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ALONG THIS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE A SECONDARY STR
EXITING FROM MOGADISHU ASSUMES STEERING AND DEFLECTS THE CYCLONE
NORTHWESTWARD. DURING THIS TIME, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY
TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST 48 BEFORE THE MODELS FAN OUT. WBAR IS A LEFT OUTLIER AND EGRR
IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. IN VIEW OF THIS MODEL SPREAD, THERE
IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48, THEN POOR
CONFIDENCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 052121Z JUN 12 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 052130) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z. //

[Chacor]

Rapid intensification? Upgraded to STS. Can we please have a thread title update, it's not a tropical cyclone (64 knots) yet.

WTIO30 FMEE 061235

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/14/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 14 (KUENA)

2.A POSITION 2012/06/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3 S / 57.7 E
(TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :32 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 330 SW: 330 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/06/07 00 UTC: 10.4 S / 56.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/06/07 12 UTC: 10.3 S / 54.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/06/08 00 UTC: 10.0 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/06/08 12 UTC: 9.5 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2012/06/09 00 UTC: 8.6 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
72H: 2012/06/09 12 UTC: 7.7 S / 49.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5-
KUENA HAS PROBABLY REACHED IT INTENSITY PEAK DURING THE MORNING.
SINCE THIS MAXIMUM, CUMULONIMBUS TOPS BECOME BEING WARMER AND SYSTEM PROBABLY BEGIN A WEAKENING PHASE.
EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET EXISTING NORTHWARD OF THE SYSTEM WELL SUSTAINS A GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS SHOWING BY THE CIRRUS IN THE METEOSAT7 VISIBLE CHANNEL.
ON AND AFTER TAU 36, DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE SAME TIME.
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE.
SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BELT.

IN THIS MONTH OF JUNE, ENVIRONMENTAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURES ARE HIGH AND SYSTEM MSLP IS THEREFORE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE FOR A SYSTEM WITH THIS INTENSITY ESPECIALLY AS THE SIZE REMAINS SMALL TO MEDIUM.

[Chacor]

Downgraded at 00z:

WTIO30 FMEE 070031 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/14/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 14 (KUENA)
2.A POSITION 2012/06/07 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0 S / 56.7 E
(TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 300 SW: 300 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/06/07 12 UTC: 9.8 S / 54.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/06/08 00 UTC: 9.6 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2012/06/08 12 UTC: 9.2 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2012/06/09 00 UTC: 8.4 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
60H: 2012/06/09 12 UTC: 7.6 S / 48.8 E, MAX WIND=000 , DISSIPATING
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0. CI=3.5-.
KUENA BEGIN A WEAKENING PHASE.
THE SYSTEM SEEME UNDERGOING A NORTHERLY CONSTRAINT, THE CENTRE IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
CONVECTION.
ON AND AFTER TAU 24, DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THEN THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPE
CTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE SAME TIME.
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE.
SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE B
ELT.
IN THIS MONTH OF JUNE, ENVIRONMENTAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURES ARE HIGH AND SYSTEM MSLP IS THEREFORE HIG
HER THAN AVERAGE FOR A SYSTEM WITH THIS INTENSITY ESPECIALLY AS THE SIZE REMAINS SMALL TO MEDIUM.

[Chacor]

And straight to dead.

WTIO30 FMEE 070613
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/14/20112012
1.A FILLING UP 14 (EX-KUENA)
2.A POSITION 2012/06/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.1 S / 56.0 E
(NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/06/07 18 UTC: 8.2 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
24H: 2012/06/08 06 UTC: 7.6 S / 53.8 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
36H: 2012/06/08 18 UTC: 6.7 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
48H: 2012/06/09 06 UTC: 5.2 S / 51.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
60H: 2012/06/09 18 UTC: 4.2 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, DISSIPATING
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
UNDERGOING NORTHERLY WINDSHEAR, SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOW FAR
IN THE SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST OF THE LLCC.
THE RESIDUAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON SHIFTING GLOBALLY NORTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 48H TO 60
H FILLING THEN DISSIPATING.
A REGENERATION SEEMS NOW VERY UNLIKELY.
RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOWEVER CONCERN AGALEGA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LAST WARNING RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION.