EPAC: CARLOTTA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

I would personally go with 90 kt at the advisory, based on the assumption it has strenghtened since (as the pressure dropped quite a bit between eye passes).

As I said earlier I think 85 knt is fair.

I don't see too much intensification, but MH sta6tus can not be ruled out. This storm will slowly weaken near the MX coast, and dissipate in about 4-5 days.

It should be noted that the posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC products. Thank you.

[RL3AO]

Recon supports 85 to 90kt. Waiting for the VDM and dropsondes.

[Aric Dunn]

I would personally go with 90 kt at the advisory, based on the assumption it has strenghtened since (as the pressure dropped quite a bit between eye passes).

As I said earlier I think 85 knt is fair.

I don't see too much intensification, but MH sta6tus can not be ruled out. This storm will slowly weaken near the MX coast, and dissipate in about 4-5 days.

It should be noted that the posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC products. Thank you.

sfmr of 92 and 93 kts. fl of 99kts. would go with 90-95kts on advisory.

[RL3AO]

Big improvement in structure in the past two hours.

[Aric Dunn]

leaving. mission over.
000
URPN15 KNHC 152044
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 48 20120615
203630 1530N 09628W 4712 06253 0244 -067 //// 099059 060 048 011 01
203700 1532N 09628W 4592 06455 0260 -078 //// 099060 061 042 007 01
203730 1534N 09629W 4477 06673 0289 -092 //// 099056 061 038 006 01
203800 1536N 09629W 4375 06853 0309 -100 //// 100055 055 036 003 01
203830 1538N 09630W 4289 07009 0322 -107 //// 101055 055 038 000 05
203900 1540N 09630W 4205 07158 0334 -117 //// 100056 056 /// /// 05
203930 1542N 09630W 4122 07324 0352 -126 //// 102056 057 /// /// 05
204000 1545N 09631W 4047 07465 0364 -134 //// 105056 057 /// /// 05
204030 1547N 09631W 3984 07584 0372 -141 //// 106057 058 /// /// 05
204100 1549N 09632W 3921 07705 0381 -148 //// 103056 057 /// /// 05
204130 1551N 09632W 3857 07830 0391 -155 //// 100055 056 /// /// 05
204200 1553N 09632W 3786 07971 0401 -163 //// 098057 058 /// /// 05
204230 1555N 09633W 3732 08079 0410 -172 //// 098058 059 /// /// 05
204300 1558N 09633W 3673 08201 0420 -177 //// 100058 059 /// /// 05
204330 1600N 09633W 3620 08310 0429 -183 //// 099056 057 /// /// 05
204400 1602N 09634W 3569 08418 0438 -189 //// 099056 057 /// /// 05
204430 1604N 09634W 3529 08503 0444 -195 //// 100052 054 /// /// 05
204500 1606N 09635W 3461 08635 0442 -205 //// 102054 055 /// /// 05
204530 1609N 09635W 3402 08762 0452 -214 //// 100056 056 /// /// 05
204600 1611N 09635W 3355 08865 0460 -220 //// 101056 057 /// /// 05
$$

[Cyclenall]

Latest:



Very center of the eye almost totally clear. Structure is not far away from Hurricane Felix 2007. Recon found 98 knots SMFR which is close to major status and I agree. I'll be back hours from now.

[RL3AO]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

CARLOTTA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700-MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 99 KT IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL...AND SFMR WIND
ESTIMATES OF 90-98 KT IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN EYEWALLS. THE
LATEST REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS NOW
GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/10. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CARLOTTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
FOR 12-24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
NORTH OF CARLOTTA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD
PRODUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. AFTER 48 HR...THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN
AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK SHOWS THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA MOVING INLAND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN PUERTO ANGEL AND ACAPULCO BETWEEN
12-24 HR. IF IT SURVIVES THAT...THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO EMERGE
OVER THE PACIFIC AND MAKE A SLOW HAIRPIN TURN NEAR THE MEXICAN
COAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION UNTIL
THE CENTER IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST FOR THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
TO DISRUPT THE STORM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
PREMISE THAT IT WILL BE ANOTHER 6 HR BEFORE THIS HAPPENS AND THAT
THE PEAK INTENSITY WILL BE NEAR 90 KT. THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.
AFTER THIS...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST HAS CAUSED A SIGNIFICANT
REVISION TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS NOW A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN TWO EXTREMES. THE FIRST EXTREME... SUPPORTED BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS...IS THAT CARLOTTA WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS IT MOVES OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE SECOND EXTREME...SUPPPORTED
BY THE GFDL...HWRF...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IS THAT CARLOTTA
WILL STAY OVER ENOUGH WATER TO MAINTAIN SOME OF ITS INTENSITY. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE DECAY SHIPS
MODEL.

THE FORECAST SLOW MOTION COULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 14.8N 96.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 15.7N 97.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 16.4N 98.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/0600Z 16.7N 99.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1800Z 16.8N 100.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 18/1800Z 16.5N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 16.5N 99.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 16.0N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Yellow Evan]

For the people who for some reason or another can't access the NHC site and need to know the basic details, here is the public advisory

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 152050
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT CARLOTTA IS NOW A RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 96.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO ACAPULCO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO
CABO CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST. CARLOTTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA SHOULD MOVE OVER OR
NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN PUERTO ANGEL AND ACAPULCO
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CARLOTTA IS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
WEAKENING AS THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA MOVES ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ONSHORE IN THE WARNING AREAS.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...75 TO 125 MM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS...GUERRERO...AND NORTHERN
OAXACA...WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES...150 TO 250 MM...EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHERN OAXACA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES...
300 TO 375 MM MM...ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE OAXACA COAST...WITH
6 TO 10 INCHES...150 TO 250 MM ALONG THE GUERRERO COAST. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Aric Dunn]

not surprised at all with the last pass.

[Kingarabian]

Fricking amazing, yet really dangerous.

On its way to MH status.

Prayers to our friends in Mexico.

[Yellow Evan]

What are the latest Dvorak numbers?

[Zanthe]

Wouldn't be surprised to see this system peak as a MH. Doesn't look like a cat. 2 on the sat. if you get what I mean.

[MGC]

Carlotta should make MH status before landfall in Mexico. The satellite loop continues to show an intensifying hurricane that appears to be tracking to the right of NHC forecast points. I think Carlotta will move futher inland than the NHC is forecasting before tracking westward. The hurricane should break up in the mountains.....MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUN 2012 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 14:46:21 N Lon : 96:12:16 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 959.7mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +0.7C Cloud Region Temp : -69.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 77km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.9 degrees

[Extratropical94]

Currently, Guchol is stronger than Carlotta according to the JTWC!

Carlotta: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.

Guchol: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

[tailgater]

Carlotta should make MH status before landfall in Mexico. The satellite loop continues to show an intensifying hurricane that appears to be tracking to the right of NHC forecast points. I think Carlotta will move futher inland than the NHC is forecasting before tracking westward. The hurricane should break up in the mountains.....MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

My thoughts exactly, small storm vs those mountains no contest but that probably means some major flooding and mudslides.

[Zanthe]

Carlotta should make MH status before landfall in Mexico. The satellite loop continues to show an intensifying hurricane that appears to be tracking to the right of NHC forecast points. I think Carlotta will move futher inland than the NHC is forecasting before tracking westward. The hurricane should break up in the mountains.....MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

My thoughts exactly, small storm vs those mountains no contest but that probably means some major flooding and mudslides.

Mudslides are gonna be a killer with this storm unless something weird happens.
Hopefully it'll weaken as quickly as it exploded today.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[Kingarabian]

I agree. With the way its moving landfall seema inevitable.