EPAC: CARLOTTA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Thing is very close to landfall...

Weakening Flag : ON

[Yellow Evan]

Thing is very close to landfall...

Weakening Flag : ON

The Rapid Dissipation flag will be on tomorrow most likely.

[CrazyC83]

20120615 2345 15.5 96.6 T4.5/4.5 03E CARLOTTA

[djones65]

I was watching the recon observations as the aircraft flew towards Carlotta. They flew at approximately 400 mb flight level. Plotting the wind directions and heights indicated to me that the "expected" building ridge north of Carlotta is at the least delayed, and may be much less than the global models have been expecting. As result it makes sense to me that Carlotta has tracked to the right or east of the forecast track. If you look at the flight at 400 mb you will see the winds were from the south and south southeast which to me would indicate a more north to north northwest track into the state of Oaxaca. Original GFS models showed potential cross over into the SW Gulf. If the ridge is weaker than expected and the trough over northeast Mexico sharpens in 48 hours then Carlotta has potential to emerge into the SW Gulf over the weekend. I know this is an unlikely scenario, but what that is plausible in my opinion. At the least I expect the northerly track to continue until landfall and any turn west northwest will be short lived and likely to be inland rather than along the coast.

The above post is unofficial and simply my opinions. Please refer to the NHC for official information and track forecasts.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye just about ready to move ashore.

[Yellow Evan]

Still offshore for now.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like it has just moved ashore.

[CrazyC83]

I would say landfall too. My guess for landfall intensity is 95 kt (down from 100-105 kt earlier).

[Yellow Evan]

I'd go with 90 knts at landfall, 95-100 knts at peak.

[Yellow Evan]

Radar from an hour or two ago.

[CrazyC83]

I think that radar went down after 2200Z.

[brunota2003]

22Z was 4 hours ago

[Yellow Evan]

Water vapor look.

[cycloneye]

Making Landfall near Puerto Escondido

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...CARLOTTA MAKING LANDFALL NEAR PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO WITH
ESTIMATED 90-MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 97.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS
EAST OF SALINA CRUZ. THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM WEST OF PUNTA
MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH. THE HURRICANE WATCH WEST OF ACAPULCO
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST. CARLOTTA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA
WILL BE MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK COULD KEEP THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER OR ALONG THE COAST.

SINCE CARLOTTA IS INTERACTING WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CARLOTTA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM. A WEATHER STATION IN THE TOWN OF PLUMA HIDALGO
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 76 MPH...123 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AND SPREAD WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW...MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...75 TO 125 MM...THROUGH MONDAY
OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS...GUERRERO...AND NORTHERN
OAXACA...WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES...150 TO 250 MM...EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHERN OAXACA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 15
INCHES...300 TO 375 MM MM...ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE OAXACA
COAST...WITH 6 TO 12 INCHES...150 TO 300 MM ALONG THE GUERRERO
COAST. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION OF CARLOTTA IS INTERACTING WITH
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BEGUN TO DETERIORATE. THE DISTINCT EYE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY HAS
BECOME OBSCURE. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 80 KNOTS. ASSUMING THAT THE
EYE OR THE CENTER MOVES COMPLETELY INLAND...WEAKENING IS
FORECAST...AND THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TO OCCUR. CARLOTTA
COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN TWO DAYS OR LESS.
HOWEVER...ONE HAS TO BE CAUTIOUS...AND IF THE CENTER MOVES ALONG
THE COAST INSTEAD...CARLOTTA WOULD NOT WEAKEN AS FAST AS INDICATED.
GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS MAINTAINED
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO AT THIS TIME.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT
9 KNOTS STEERED BY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STEERING
CURRENTS WILL COLLAPSE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND THE CYCLONE WILL
LIKELY MEANDER OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. IN FACT...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
TURN CARLOTTA EASTWARD VERY SLOWLY IN THE LONG RANGE.

EVEN IF CARLOTTA BECOMES A WEAK SYSTEM...THE FORECAST SLOW MOTION
COULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 15.9N 97.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 16.5N 98.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/0000Z 17.0N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1200Z 17.5N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0000Z 17.5N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z 17.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z 17.0N 99.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0000Z 17.0N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, only 80 knts. Would have set it at 85 knts (down from 90 knts since it is slightly inland), but I am not an expert.

[brunota2003]

Question is...what did it peak at?

And can someone please post the link to the BT? Thanks in advance!

[CrazyC83]

I'd argue for a higher intensity, with an intermediate peak at about 2300Z.

[CrazyC83]

EP, 03, 2012061600, , BEST, 0, 156N, 967W, 90, 976

Highest intensity in the BT.

[HURAKAN]

The entire thread is you guys arguing the NHC, they are the experts for the right reasons.

[Yellow Evan]

The entire thread is you guys arguing the NHC, they are the experts for the right reasons.

I'm not arguing, I am just saying what I would have given it. I never said I was an expert.