EPAC: INVEST 95E

[Extratropical94]

More invests for you guys:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep952012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201206121526
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 95, 2012, DB, O, 2012061212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP952012
EP, 95, 2012061212, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1010W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[Yellow Evan]

Holy crap. Another invest.

[Yellow Evan]

2. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD SURFACE
LOW ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Stays at 20%

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, this thread is getting very little attention. The EPAc needs some more love.

[Kingarabian]

<3 <3

[Yellow Evan]

Still a mess. Will take a while for this to get going.

[Cyclenall]

Wow, this thread is getting very little attention. The EPAc needs some more love.

It can and has been worse. You'll feel really bad when there is an Invest in the Atlantic getting literally 75X the views and replies than a major hurricane in the Epac possibility affecting landmass but not 100%. I always get a chuckle out of that.

I give 95E a 48% chance at ever becoming a named storm.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, this thread is getting very little attention. The EPAc needs some more love.

It can and has been worse. You'll feel really bad when there is an Invest in the Atlantic getting literally 75X the views and replies than a major hurricane in the Epac possibility affecting landmass but not 100%. I always get a chuckle out of that.

I give 95E a 48% chance at ever becoming a named storm.

I don't get it either, though Jimena 09 owns the record for longest thread, which occurred during Erika 09. Imagine if S2k existed in the 1980s how much attention the EPAC would have got.

[Cyclenall]

I don't get it either, though Jimena 09 owns the record for longest thread, which occurred during Erika 09. Imagine if S2k existed in the 1980s how much attention the EPAC would have got.

It would probably be even worse as there are as many members on here that live in a Epac prone region as there are fingers on one of my hands. I imagine the interest would be close to zip in the Atlantic so extra members from there wouldn't follow tropical meteorology at all and therefore it would be tumbleweeds . To prove it, I didn't even know the Epac basin "existed" at all before 2005 in regards to tropical cyclones. I remember the first time looking at Unisys seeing a Epac map of all the tracks during one particular season and thought it was strange how all those TCs were clustered so close to the east. I never heard of hurricanes from there.

[Yellow Evan]

I don't get it either, though Jimena 09 owns the record for longest thread, which occurred during Erika 09. Imagine if S2k existed in the 1980s how much attention the EPAC would have got.

It would probably be even worse as there are as many members on here that live in a Epac prone region as there are fingers on one of my hands. I imagine the interest would be close to zip in the Atlantic so extra members from there wouldn't follow tropical meteorology at all and therefore it would be tumbleweeds . To prove it, I didn't even know the Epac basin "existed" at all before 2005 in regards to tropical cyclones. I remember the first time looking at Unisys seeing a Epac map of all the tracks during one particular season and thought it was strange how all those TCs were clustered so close to the east. I never heard of hurricanes from there.

Nah, since the ATL was quiet during that period. When did you start following ATL hurricanes? According to the left, you Joined in 2006.

[Kingarabian]

I firmly believe we will have an 09 type season. And since 09, the EPac has been getting a lot more attention. But of course, 75% of the users on here live near the Atlantic so rightfully so they track ATL storms.
But it's fun. I follow all of them and read everyone's comments just so I can expand my Hurricane knowledge.

[Extratropical94]

Still at 20%

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Stays at 20%.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

I firmly believe we will have an 09 type season. And since 09, the EPac has been getting a lot more attention. But of course, 75% of the users on here live near the Atlantic so rightfully so they track ATL storms.
But it's fun. I follow all of them and read everyone's comments just so I can expand my Hurricane knowledge.

The EPAC got the most attention in 2006 and 2009 and it has increased since 2009. They are forums of EPAC fans on a few other sites for the first time in history! I think that EPAC fishspiners should get roughly the same amount of attention as ATL finshspinners.

[Extratropical94]

12Z Tropical models:

WHXX01 KMIA 131405
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1405 UTC WED JUN 13 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP952012) 20120613 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120613 1200 120614 0000 120614 1200 120615 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 103.5W 11.8N 104.7W 12.7N 106.3W 13.6N 108.2W
BAMD 11.0N 103.5W 11.2N 104.7W 11.6N 105.9W 12.1N 107.1W
BAMM 11.0N 103.5W 11.4N 104.5W 11.9N 105.7W 12.5N 106.8W
LBAR 11.0N 103.5W 11.0N 104.9W 11.5N 106.4W 12.2N 108.1W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 34KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120615 1200 120616 1200 120617 1200 120618 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 110.2W 15.5N 113.8W 17.2N 116.8W 18.9N 119.9W
BAMD 12.5N 108.2W 13.9N 109.9W 16.8N 111.6W 19.6N 113.8W
BAMM 13.0N 108.0W 14.2N 109.9W 16.8N 111.9W 18.9N 114.7W
LBAR 13.2N 109.8W 15.8N 113.5W 20.9N 115.7W 28.4N 116.9W
SHIP 40KTS 48KTS 47KTS 35KTS
DSHP 40KTS 48KTS 47KTS 35KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 103.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 101.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 101.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, not much intensification expected.

[Yellow Evan]

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND DEVELOPMENT...
IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT
MOVES LITTLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Extratropical94]

mods, delete this post please, content has already been posted

[Yellow Evan]

Looking less and less likely to form.