WPAC: TALIM - Post-Tropical

[dexterlabio]

45kts according to the NRL site. this wasn't upgraded yet to a TS so im quite intrigued how can it jump from a 30kt TD to a 45kt TS... or maybe there was a minor mistake...

[phwxenthusiast]

45kts according to the NRL site. this wasn't upgraded yet to a TS so im quite intrigued how can it jump from a 30kt TD to a 45kt TS... or maybe there was a minor mistake...

it'll be a upgraded for JTWC's 09z warning

[dexterlabio]

^oh I see, thanks for clarifying!

[Typhoon Hunter]

45kts according to the NRL site. this wasn't upgraded yet to a TS so im quite intrigued how can it jump from a 30kt TD to a 45kt TS... or maybe there was a minor mistake...

JTWC can be pretty perplexing at times

[francis327]

Latest reflective radar from Hainan



JMA tagging the speed at 40kt

JMA Advisories #15
WTPQ21 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1205 TALIM (1205)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 19.0N 112.4E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 250NM SOUTH 140NM NORTH

FORECAST
24HF 190600UTC 20.5N 115.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 200600UTC 23.8N 118.7E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 210600UTC 28.2N 124.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

[phwxenthusiast]

45kts according to the NRL site. this wasn't upgraded yet to a TS so im quite intrigued how can it jump from a 30kt TD to a 45kt TS... or maybe there was a minor mistake...

JTWC can be pretty inept at times

hehe not this time though... that's just how JTWC and NRLMRY work... if you look at NRL's sat images, you'll see two time stamps.. one below is the actual time the image was taken, the upper time stamp is for the warning time (06z, 12z, 18z, 00z), the winds and pressure on the image description corresponds with the warning time... since JTWC warnings are usually released 2 to 3 hours after the synoptic weather time (eg 06z analysis released at their 09z warning), we can see what the analyzed winds will be from JTWC using NRLMRY... dexter was wondering why they have 45kts on for Talim while JTWC still as it at 30kt but the image he probably saw already contained the 06z analysis which was just released by JTWC an hour ago... i hope i made sense there lol

[dexterlabio]

^i was actually quite puzzled out by the time stamps in the NRL site...and bit surprised to see an upgrade to 45kt TS from a TD by JTWC..


JMA latest position of Talim is different to JTWC latest satfix which makes me confused again...its center is quite hard to locate on both IR and visible imagery, and my hunch tells me it is right under that area of deep convection. any thoughts?

[Typhoon Hunter]

45kts according to the NRL site. this wasn't upgraded yet to a TS so im quite intrigued how can it jump from a 30kt TD to a 45kt TS... or maybe there was a minor mistake...

JTWC can be pretty inept at times

hehe not this time though... that's just how JTWC and NRLMRY work... if you look at NRL's sat images, you'll see two time stamps.. one below is the actual time the image was taken, the upper time stamp is for the warning time (06z, 12z, 18z, 00z), the winds and pressure on the image description corresponds with the warning time... since JTWC warnings are usually released 2 to 3 hours after the synoptic weather time (eg 06z analysis released at their 09z warning), we can see what the analyzed winds will be from JTWC using NRLMRY... dexter was wondering why they have 45kts on for Talim while JTWC still as it at 30kt but the image he probably saw already contained the 06z analysis which was just released by JTWC an hour ago... i hope i made sense there lol

I was calling them inept for raising the intensity from 30kts to 45kts between subsequent warnings, it clearly didn't rapidly intensify 15kts over the space of 6 hours today, they'd just been warning it too low to begin with! Yeah I'm familiar with NRL and it's workings, a great website!

[euro6208]

WTPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (TALIM) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 19.3N 113.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 113.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.0N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.8N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 22.5N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.7N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 29.3N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 31.6N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 113.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z. REFER
TO TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN



WDPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (TALIM) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO FIND IN EIR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PGTW FIX, ALONG WITH AN 181005Z
WINDSAT SCATTEROMETRY PASS, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 2.5/2.5 DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM
PGTW AND THE WINDSAT PASS SHOWING FORTY KNOTS ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE LLCC, WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (20-30 KNOTS)
BOTH TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF TS 06W. THE STRONG VWS TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GOOD EQUATORWARD FLOW, AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) THAT IS ANCHORED OVER CHINA PREVENTS TS 06W FROM GAINING A
POLEWARD CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY WITH THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AWAITING TY 05W
(GUCHOL) TO EXIT THE AREA. UPON TY 05W'S EXIT, THE STR TO THE EAST
OF TS 06W SHOULD BUILD BACK IN AND STEER IT MORE NORTHEAST WITH
SLIGHTLY FASTER SPEEDS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 06W WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITHIN THE GRADIENT FLOW AS THE STR BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK IN. THROUGH TAU 36, TS 06W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND WARM SSTS. TS 06W WILL TRACK OVER
THE TAIWAN STRAIT AROUND TAU 48, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, DRY AIR BEING PULLED IN
FROM CHINA AND LOWER SSTS. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE TAIWAN STRAIT
AROUND TAU 60, IT WILL STILL BE OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, BUT DUE
TO THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT, WILL START EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT). CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THE FORECAST AS THERE IS STILL
NO AGREEMENT ON WHEN THE STEERING STR WILL BUILD BACK IN.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RE-BUILDING STR TOWARDS SOUTHERN
KYUSHU. DECREASING SSTS (22 TO 26 CELSIUS) AND INCREASING VWS WILL
NOT ALLOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND FAVOR ETT. ETT SHOULD BE COMPLETE
AS TS TALIM PASSES SOUTHERN JAPAN AT TAU 96. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO BE LOW FOR THE EXTENDED TAUS BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE RE-
BUILDING STEERING STR. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, HOWEVER, TRACK SPEEDS STILL VARY
AS SOME MODELS REBUILD THE STEERING STR AT A SLOWER PACE. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED PREDOMINANTLY ON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 985.9mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 3.2 3.4

[RobWESTPACWX]

Taiwan I think will be under the gun tomorrow, today N. Luzon is getting some rains though.

Here is Taiwans radar.

[senorpepr]

WTPQ21 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1205 TALIM (1205)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 19.0N 113.4E FAIR
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 250NM SOUTH 140NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 21.5N 116.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 201800UTC 25.5N 120.4E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 211800UTC 31.1N 128.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Typhoon Hunter]

Morning all. Strong wind signal 3 up in Hong Kong at the moment but not really feeling much since Talim's passing well south of us, according to the latest update from HKO they'll drop back down to Standby signal 1 in the next few hours.

http://www.weather.gov.hk/contente.htm

[mf_dolphin]

Hopefully it stays that way through the rest of the typhoon season for you

[dexterlabio]

looks like the shear displacing most of the deep convection to the south.

[ManilaTC]

WTPQ21 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1205 TALIM (1205)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 19.3N 114.3E FAIR
MOVE E 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 250NM SOUTH 140NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 22.6N 117.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 210000UTC 28.0N 123.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 220000UTC 32.5N 133.3E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hopefully it stays that way through the rest of the typhoon season for you

Haha it's been a long time since Hong Kong was hit by a proper eyewall, it's happened very violently in the past, but not during the "skyscraper era."

As Dexter said looks like Talim's starting to get sheared, can start to see the dreaded "Drywall" appeal (a dry eyewall )

[dexterlabio]

is now Severe Tropical Storm Talim. Yeah still sheared to its south but deep convection starts to expand, and the overall circulation is quite huge, I think. this could bring a lot of rain trouble in Taiwan.

[francis327]

WTPQ21 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1205 TALIM (1205) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191200UTC 20.4N 116.1E FAIR
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 201200UTC 25.6N 121.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 211200UTC 31.6N 129.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 221200UTC 36.0N 142.5E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[euro6208]

right through the taiwan strait..



WTPN32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (TALIM) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 21.1N 116.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 116.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.0N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.3N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 28.0N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 32.2N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 36.7N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 40.4N 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 116.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTHWEST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 05W (GUCHOL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. //
NNNN



WDPN32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (TALIM) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED AND EXPANDED OVER THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), ALTHOUGH THE DEEP, CURVED,
CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST, AS SHOWN ON
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS EXTRAPOLATED
FROM A 190947Z CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
TO REFLECT THE DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF HIGH (25-30 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE STEERING STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE VWS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT ARE RELATIVELY COOLER. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS TS 06W EMERGES IN THE
EAST CHINA SEA, THE SST WILL BE WARMER AND VWS WILL SLIGHTLY RELAX AS
THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE IN PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION.
THESE WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO MOMENTARILY INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL INTO KYUSHU AFTER TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TS 06W WILL UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), AND TRAVERSE ACROSS THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF KYUSHU AND HONSHU AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72, THEREFORE, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, REMNANTS OF A COLD-CORE 06W WILL EXIT INTO THE
COLD PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH OF HOKKAIDO. DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE
VORTEX AT THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS VERY POOR CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. //
NNNN