ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[linkerweather]

Debby is CLEARLY moving South or SSE
http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/ba ... .html.html
Just off the coast of the Nature Coast. For those unfamiliar with that part of Florida it is just about 50 miles nnw of Tampa Bay

What are you basing that on? I sure hope not on what you see on radar or satellite. Here is a RAP/UCAR surface analysis from METARS taken at 10:16PM EDT. I circled where the center is based on those two wind reports - one from the NE and one from the SW. Do you have different wind reports?

Cedar Key winds are NE, Crystal River has a SE wind right now. My initial opinion was radar based then I checked the obs around the area. Also, several un official weather stations are reporting east winds in N. Citrus COunty. Enough evidence for me.

Pete...no worries...all friendly!

[StormingB81]

WFTV in Orlando also said that it was moving South

[ozonepete]

Debby is CLEARLY moving South or SSE
http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/ba ... .html.html
Just off the coast of the Nature Coast. For those unfamiliar with that part of Florida it is just about 50 miles nnw of Tampa Bay

What are you basing that on? I sure hope not on what you see on radar or satellite. Here is a RAP/UCAR surface analysis from METARS taken at 10:16PM EDT. I circled where the center is based on those two wind reports - one from the NE and one from the SW. Do you have different wind reports?

Cedar Key winds are NE, Crystal River has a SE wind right now. My initial opinion was radar based then I checked the obs around the area. Also, several un official weather stations are reporting east winds in N. Citrus COunty. Enough evidence for me.

Pete...no worries...all friendly!

Absolutely! Nice to meet you.

[HurricaneBelle]

And now NHC is confirming the SE movement.

From the 11PM advisory:

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 6 KT

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 82.8W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 83.1W

[linkerweather]

11 pm advisory says moving SE

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 270240
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1100 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...CENTER OF DEBBY TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD...EXPECTED TO RESUME AN
EASTWARD MOTION LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 82.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ESE OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A
TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...WITH A MOTION
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL
CROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY EMERGE INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST WHILE THE CENTER IS
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER
THE CENTER REACHES THE ATLANTIC.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS
1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...EVEN THOUGH DEBBY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...
THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS NOT FULLY DIMINISHED DUE TO
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS
DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WATER COULD REACH
THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND...

FLORIDA WEST COAST INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SOUTH OF
THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS
ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN
VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA... PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH ISOLATED 5 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN FLORIDA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[psyclone]

the winds are veering more and more westerly at my location in northern pinellas county so i have no doubt that you are correct Josh. not that it makes much difference to the sensible wx outside of weather geek land but it sure is interesting nonetheless. it looks like the thing is being drawn and quartered....ripped to shreds. i hope it is.

[ozonepete]

11 pm advisory says moving SE

Ok, I take my crow with a thick barbecue sauce!

[psyclone]

11 pm advisory says moving SE

Ok, I take my crow with a light barbecue sauce!

hey we have an unfair advantage here....all we need to do is step outside!

[ozonepete]

Though I think it's a temporary move as the NHC indicates, and the center is getting so diffuse/stretched that it will be more and more difficult to locate.

[linkerweather]

the winds are veering more and more westerly at my location in northern pinellas county so i have no doubt that you are correct Josh. not that it makes much difference to the sensible wx outside of weather geek land but it sure is interesting nonetheless. it looks like the thing is being drawn and quartered....ripped to shreds. i hope it is.

You make a great point and I have been trying to highlight this on air that no difference to our sensible weather or the forecast really just of interest!

[robbielyn]

Though I think it's a temporary move as the NHC indicates, and the center is getting so diffuse/stretched that it will be more and more difficult to locate.

Im sorry ozonepete. Didn't realize u were a pro met or I wouldn't have said anything. u r right one needs to back up what they say I was just defending our local met cuz I didn't know u a pro met. Ill buy the bbq sauce how's that?

[linkerweather]

Though I think it's a temporary move as the NHC indicates, and the center is getting so diffuse/stretched that it will be more and more difficult to locate.

Oh I agree, no one said Debby was a pretty one (no offense to any ladies named Debby)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I love watching this little swirl. Yes SE it goes...

[ozonepete]

Though I think it's a temporary move as the NHC indicates, and the center is getting so diffuse/stretched that it will be more and more difficult to locate.

Im sorry ozonepete. Didn't realize u were a pro met or I wouldn't have said anything. u r right one needs to back up what they say I was just defending our local met cuz I didn't know u a pro met. Ill buy the bbq sauce how's that?

LOL, it's all good. Just make it a good sauce, cause I'm tired of eatin' crow.

[ozonepete]

Though I think it's a temporary move as the NHC indicates, and the center is getting so diffuse/stretched that it will be more and more difficult to locate.

Oh I agree, no one said Debby was a pretty one (no offense to any ladies named Debby)

YEah, I hear you. Though I still think it will regenerate. But I have the GFS and ECMWF to back me up, so it's not that big of a risk to say it. Interesting that the 11PM disco is late again. I guess they have to explain why they said it's moving SE but the 11PM track is ENE.

[cycloneye]

11 PM EDT Discussion came out very late but here it is

WTNT44 KNHC 270301
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1100 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

THE CENTER OF DEBBY MADE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION AT AROUND 2100 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME...THE CENTER HAS TURNED
SOUTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A GUST FRONT FROM
THE MOST RECENT CONVECTIVE BURST AND A MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER
OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE CIRCULATION HAS ALSO BECOME
ELONGATED WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE RISING TO AROUND 1000 MB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON COASTAL OBSERVATIONS AND THE
CHANCE THAT SOME STRONGER WINDS MAY EXIST OVER THE WATER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 125/6. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF DEBBY...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. WHILE
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THESE FEATURES TO WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT 72 HR...THEY AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW TO ALLOW THE CENTER TO CROSS FLORIDA AND REACH THE ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT. THE
NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW THE CENTER STALLING OFF THE U. S.
COAST...WHILE THE GFS...UKMET...ECMWF...GFDL...AND HWRF MOVE IT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AT VARYING SPEEDS. THE
FORECAST TRACK GOES WITH THE LATTER SCENARIO. THE NEW FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION
AND MOTION...AND IS A BIT FASTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK FORECAST MAY BE NECESSARY IF
THE CENTER RE-FORMS WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA.

DEBBY IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND LAND INTERACTION. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD
PERSIST UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES THE ATLANTIC. IN 36-48 HR...THE
GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO INTERACT
WITH THE CYCLONE...WHICH COULD REDUCE THE SHEAR AND PROVIDE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR
SHOULD STILL BE NEAR DEBBY AT THAT TIME...WHICH COULD PREVENT THE
MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FROM STRENGTHENING THE SYSTEM. THUS...THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 29.0N 82.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 29.3N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/0000Z 29.7N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 28/1200Z 30.3N 77.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 30.7N 75.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 32.0N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 35.0N 69.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 39.0N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[robbielyn]

Looking at water vapor the dry air is pushing Debby outta here d/t the ridge or trough sorry not good at this part looking at satellite im thinking trough cuz of the dry air its pushing the ull back into Texas quite rapidly and dry out our state amd pushing debby's center to the south. Our saving grace.

[ozonepete]

Ok, here's the whole 11PM disco. In reality nothing much has changed, except for the possibility of a stall east of Florida, but the NOGAPS and CMC are the worst for this kind of forecast.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1100 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

THE CENTER OF DEBBY MADE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION AT AROUND 2100 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME...THE CENTER HAS TURNED
SOUTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A GUST FRONT FROM
THE MOST RECENT CONVECTIVE BURST AND A MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER
OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE CIRCULATION HAS ALSO BECOME
ELONGATED WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE RISING TO AROUND 1000 MB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON COASTAL OBSERVATIONS AND THE
CHANCE THAT SOME STRONGER WINDS MAY EXIST OVER THE WATER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 125/6. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF DEBBY...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. WHILE
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THESE FEATURES TO WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT 72 HR...THEY AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW TO ALLOW THE CENTER TO CROSS FLORIDA AND REACH THE ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT. THE
NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW THE CENTER STALLING OFF THE U. S.
COAST...WHILE THE GFS...UKMET...ECMWF...GFDL...AND HWRF MOVE IT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AT VARYING SPEEDS. THE
FORECAST TRACK GOES WITH THE LATTER SCENARIO. THE NEW FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION
AND MOTION...AND IS A BIT FASTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK FORECAST MAY BE NECESSARY IF
THE CENTER RE-FORMS WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA.

DEBBY IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND LAND INTERACTION. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD
PERSIST UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES THE ATLANTIC. IN 36-48 HR...THE
GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO INTERACT
WITH THE CYCLONE...WHICH COULD REDUCE THE SHEAR AND PROVIDE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR
SHOULD STILL BE NEAR DEBBY AT THAT TIME...WHICH COULD PREVENT THE
MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FROM STRENGTHENING THE SYSTEM. THUS...THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 29.0N 82.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 29.3N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/0000Z 29.7N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 28/1200Z 30.3N 77.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 30.7N 75.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 32.0N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 35.0N 69.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 39.0N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[jdray]

Ok, seriously Debby, you've been fun, but you have overstayed your welcome.
Can we take up a donation for fans to blow her away, some wiccans, maybe a voodoo priestess or two?

We are literally drowning here. My sister and her family have to park at a church lot and walk 1/2 mile to their house as the roads are not fit for cars. I almost flooded my car 4 times on the way home from work tonight. Its getting ridiculous.