CPAC: DANIEL - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep962012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201207021125
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 96, 2012, DB, O, 2012070212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP962012
EP, 96, 2012070112, , BEST, 0, 90N, 955W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2012070118, , BEST, 0, 93N, 970W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2012070200, , BEST, 0, 96N, 984W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2012070206, , BEST, 0, 98N, 991W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2012070212, , BEST, 0, 99N, 997W, 20, 1009, DB


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 2 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 021127
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1127 UTC MON JUL 2 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962012) 20120702 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120702 1200 120703 0000 120703 1200 120704 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.9N 99.7W 10.7N 101.8W 11.4N 103.9W 12.0N 106.0W
BAMD 9.9N 99.7W 10.2N 101.4W 10.3N 103.2W 10.4N 104.9W
BAMM 9.9N 99.7W 10.4N 101.6W 10.7N 103.5W 11.0N 105.4W
LBAR 9.9N 99.7W 10.6N 101.8W 11.4N 104.2W 12.1N 106.7W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120704 1200 120705 1200 120706 1200 120707 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 108.0W 13.9N 111.5W 14.3N 115.3W 14.1N 119.3W
BAMD 10.6N 106.6W 11.1N 110.3W 11.5N 114.2W 11.9N 118.1W
BAMM 11.3N 107.3W 12.1N 111.0W 12.4N 115.1W 12.5N 119.4W
LBAR 12.9N 109.2W 14.6N 114.1W 15.5N 118.9W 14.4N 122.3W
SHIP 47KTS 58KTS 65KTS 70KTS
DSHP 47KTS 58KTS 65KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.9N LONCUR = 99.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 98.4W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 9.0N LONM24 = 95.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[RL3AO]

Seems to be related to the tropical wave that popped up on the EPAC TWD yesterday.

[KWT]

Seems highly likely this will be our next system in the EPAC, though if the models are right something bigger is waiting a little down the line.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 2 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE NEAR THE CENTER AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

The shear appears to not be a impediment for this system to develop into a strong system down the road.

SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 13 14 12 13 11 10 11 10 9 9


ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12070 ... _ships.txt

[Kingarabian]

Saw this yesterday while looking at some visible... May make some fish like noise.

[cycloneye]

No change.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 2 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Yellow Evan]

Hmm, Daniel is on the horizon.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

EP, 96, 2012070300, , BEST, 0, 97N, 997W, 25, 1007, LO

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[Kingarabian]

Trying to wrap up but it's still too shallow. Need more convection.

[Extratropical94]

2AM EDT/11PM PDT: Still at 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUL 2 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Kingarabian]

Actually looking good this evening. Convection is firing and its wrapping around.

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 3 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER THIS
MORNING...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[euro6208]

most likely this will be a weak depression or storm but a stronger storm (hurricane) is forecast to develop in the future....




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[cycloneye]

Up to 80%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 3 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Kingarabian]

Yeah it looks real nice as of now.

[Kingarabian]

Probably is a TD as of now.

To bad the GFS and the Euro are not catching it but showing something else next week.

Oh well it could just moisten up some of the dry air laying around in the EPac.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Getting close to Tropical Depression status.

[Yellow Evan]

Ehh, looks ok on satellite imagery IMO.