WPAC: KHANUN - Post-Tropical

[Meow]

17.2N 143.3E

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.0N 146.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFCANT DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). AN OLDER 131405Z OSCAT PASS INDICATED THE LLCC HAD
WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH A REGION OF STRONGER CONVERGENT
FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH IS HELPING TO FUEL THE RECENTLY
OBSERVED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL HAS BEEN DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
LLCC, AND IS CREATING A VENTING MECHANISM FOR THE CONVERGENT FLOW
NOTED EARLIER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. BASED ON RECENT CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

TXPQ23 KNES 140351
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B. 14/0232Z

C. 19.6N

D. 142.8E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...INITIAL CLASSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM. 91W NOW HAS A WELL
DEFINED AND BROAD LLCC THAT IS FULLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF A LARGE AREA
OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THAT THE LLCC
IS BECOMING MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION PAST SEVERAL
HOURS WITH A NEW FLARE UP OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS. 2 TENTHS BANDING
GIVES A DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RUMINSKI

[Meow]

Only after a half of day after forming, the JTWC upgraded 91W’s possibility to Medium.

1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  
146.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 144.1E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM  
NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE  
IMAGERY SHOWS A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD OF A  
SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) CONVECTIVE ELEMENT LOCATED OVER  
THE SUSPECTED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A LARGER AREA,  
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF GUAM, OF STRONGER CONVERGENT FLOW IS ALSO  
FUELING DEEP CONVECTION; HOWEVER, THESE CLOUD TOPS ARE QUICKLY  
SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. A 140412Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE  
DEPICTS SHALLOW AND BROAD CYCLONICALLY TURING CLOUD LINES OVER THE  
WESTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC AND THE 85 GHZ IMAGE DETAILS THE STRONG  
CONVECTION CONTAINED WITHIN THE SMALL CDO FEATURE TO THE EAST OF  
THE LLCC. SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM 140223Z SHOWS A 05-10 KNOT LLCC  
LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 143.5E WITH 25-30 KNOT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS  
CONVERGING INTO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RAINBAND. UPPER-LEVEL  
ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY COMPLEX PATTERN WITH TWO TROPICAL UPPER  
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELLS LOCATED NEAR THE LLCC. THERE IS AN  
ELONGATED TUTT CELL LOCATED WEST OF THE LLCC NEAR 16N 134E WHICH IS  
PROVIDING FOR SOME CONVERGENT FLOW INTO THE OTHERWISE EXCELLENT  
DIVERGENT FLOW FROM A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER  
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY ONE DEGREE WEST OF THE LLCC. ANOTHER SMALLER,  
MORE WELL-DEFINED, TUTT CELL EXISTS NORTH OF THE LLCC NEAR 25N  
145E, AND IS PROVIDING FOR ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY,  
THE LARGER TUTT TO THE EAST, WHICH HAS MULTIPLE EMBEDDED TUTT  
CELLS, IS PROVIDING FOR ENHANCED EASTWARD EXHAUST. SEA SURFACE  
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE MARIANAS ISLANDS ARE EXTREMELY WARM (30-32  
CELSIUS), OCEAN HEAT CONTENT REACHES A MAXIMUM NEAR GUAM, AND THE  
26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM IS DEEPEST IN A BELT SPANNING FROM  
APPROXIMATELY 10-20N TO 125-160E. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE PROJECTS  
THE LLCC TO SLOWLY TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST AND DEVELOP STRONG  
SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN THE LLCC AND BUILDING RIDGING  
TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT  
12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR  
1008 MB. DUE TO THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND  
VERY WARM OCEAN PARAMETERS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A  
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED  
TO MEDIUM.

[dexterlabio]

some models been showing a system somewhere near the same area. looks to be a japan tracker if it is gonna develop further.

[euro6208]

TXPQ23 KNES 140928
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B. 14/0832Z

C. 19.5N

D. 143.4E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LLCC IS NOW MOVING UNDER CIRRUS CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH
91W AND IS CLOSER TO DEEP CONVECTION WHICH HAS REMAINED ROBUST PAST 6
HRS. 3 TENTHS BANDING GIVES DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

[euro6208]

very heavy rain for the northern mariana islands and guam expected in fact, we are being affected right now...

[Meow]

WWJP25 RJTD 141200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 141200.
...
SUMMARY.
...
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 20N 142E ALMOST STATIONARY.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Tropical Depression

TD
Issued at 19:15 UTC, 14 July 2012
<Analyses at 14/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N18°50'(18.8°)
E143°00'(143.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 15/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°00'(21.0°)
E139°00'(139.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[Meow]

Still a tropical depression with gale warning.



TD
Issued at 01:20 UTC, 15 July 2012

<Analyses at 15/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N19°05'(19.1°)
E143°05'(143.1°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1008hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 16/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°20'(21.3°)
E139°00'(139.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[euro6208]

[Meow]

TCFA



WTPN21 PGTW 150430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.7N 142.4E TO 24.4N 136.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
150000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N
142.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.9N
144.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 142.2E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION
OF A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A
150042Z ASCAT PASS. THIS SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH STRONGER 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
INDUCED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DISTURBANCE AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL PREVIOUSLY SUPERIMPOSED OVER THE LLCC HAS MOVED
RAPIDLY WESTWARD, DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND ALLOWING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO DEVELOP.
ADDITIONALLY, A NEW TUTT CELL THAT HAS FORMED TO THE EAST OF THE
DISTURBANCE HAS INTRODUCED A SECOND OUTFLOW CHANNEL. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH STRONGER GRADIENT-INDUCED WINDS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS OBSERVED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON A PERSISTENT LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION AND RAPIDLY IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 160430Z.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

the TUTT cell in the west must move away further west for 91w to develop more quickly. what's the next storm?-- khanun??
and oh.. something is starting to spin in the west of palawan island-- in the west philippine sea... will it be the next invest?

[Meow]

That cold-core low prompted this system to form. The TD will be named Khanun, although it is still nameless at 06Z.



TD
Issued at 07:00 UTC, 15 July 2012

<Analyses at 15/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N19°30'(19.5°)
E143°00'(143.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 16/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°55'(21.9°)
E138°50'(138.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[RobWESTPACWX]

ASCAT imagery shows with fair certainty where the center of circ. is for this.

[Meow]

TD
Issued at 13:05 UTC, 15 July 2012

<Analyses at 15/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N20°05'(20.1°)
E142°10'(142.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 16/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°35'(22.6°)
E137°40'(137.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[Meow]

It is now TD 08W from the JTWC.



WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150421Z JUL 12//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 22.4N 140.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 140.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 23.9N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 25.2N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 26.9N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 29.3N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 36.0N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 139.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 150421Z JUL 12 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 150430). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z,
160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ23 KNES 151527
TCSWNP

A. 08W (NONAME)

B. 15/1432Z

C. 22.4N

D. 139.9E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS/TMI

H. REMARKS...MICROWAVE GAVE THE BEST POSSIBLE LOCATION OF THE LLC AS
SHORTWAVE IR PROVIDED NO TRUE HELP IN FINDING IT. CONVECTION WRAPS
JUST OVER .2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

15/1056Z 22.3N 140.9E SSMIS
15/1126Z 22.5N 140.1E TMI


...KIBLER


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.6 /1003.4mb/ 26.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.6 1.7 2.1

[Meow]

TD
Issued at 19:05 UTC, 15 July 2012

<Analyses at 15/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N20°50'(20.8°)
E140°30'(140.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 16/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N23°25'(23.4°)
E136°25'(136.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[brunota2003]

Japan doesn't need any more rain...some areas have picked up anywhere from 15 to 30 inches+ over the last few days.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Japan doesn't need any more rain...some areas have picked up anywhere from 15 to 30 inches+ over the last few days.

Exactly! Really hoping this one doesn't pass near Kyushu which has bore the brunt of the devastating rains recently.