EPAC: INVEST 90E

[cycloneye]

New TCFA issued

WTPN21 PHNC 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/222051Z JUL 12//
AMPN/REF IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 112.4W TO 12.1N 120.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
231800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N
113.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0N
110.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 113.0W, APPROXIMATELY 760 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 231636Z 89H METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING
LLCC WITH A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 231636Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 20
TO 25 KNOT WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG THE EASTERN
QUADRANTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM LIES JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE DIVERGENCE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST ENHANCING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10 TO 15 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE
ESTIMATED AT 26-29 DEGREES CELSIUS AND WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 222100).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
242100Z.//

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Remains at 90%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 23 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
ABOUT 925 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

[cycloneye]

Down to 70%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 24 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 24 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[Yellow Evan]

I am mad at this invest for not devloping yet.

[cycloneye]

From 22:05 UTC discussion.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH NEAR 10N118W. THIS LOW IS SITUATED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 16N116W TO THE LOW. MOST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS TO THE S OF
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT OF
LOW CENTER. THE 0520 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS PROVIDED
OBSERVATIONS OF SOME 30 KT WIND BARBS TO THE E OF THE LOW
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT FROM OCCURRING... AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THERE IS NOW A MEDIUM
PROBABILITY THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL IS
BACKING OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE

[cycloneye]

Down to 40%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 24 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Kingarabian]

Sleeper written all over it especially since its low in altitude.

[Yellow Evan]

This invest is underachieving.

[cycloneye]

Bye to 90E.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 25 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

Continues to go down.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 25 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 25 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Cyclenall]

Wow, that was fast. Gilma is on its way

No its not, more boredom to come.

I am mad at this invest for not devloping yet.

I'm glad I didn't waste my time with this one, this was one of the closest to forming into a TC (90% from NHC) without doing so. In a way that's good because if they had, it would have only been a TD which is a waste and interruption.

Sleeper written all over it especially since its low in altitude.

It might have a chance in the Cpac basin but I'm certainly not going to hold my breath on that one. The GFS shows a closed low while moving westwards under Hawaii.

The only thing interesting to happen in the tropics in a while is the explosive intensification Typhoon Vicente went through before hitting landmass.

[Chickenzilla]

It is now at 20 percent.

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 25 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NNNN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 26 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 26 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1600
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUL 26 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Yellow Evan]

Goodbye 90E.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, that was fast. Gilma is on its way

No its not, more boredom to come.

Yeah, I jumped the gun here.

[Yellow Evan]

First 90% bust I've ever seen since 2009 (when two system were likely given in house probabilities of 90% that never developed).