EPAC: INVEST 90E

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep902012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201207212040
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 90, 2012, DB, O, 2012072118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP902012
EP, 90, 2012072018, , BEST, 0, 75N, 1022W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2012072106, , BEST, 0, 82N, 1041W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2012072112, , BEST, 0, 86N, 1050W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2012072118, , BEST, 0, 90N, 1060W, 25, 1009, DB

Let's see if Gilma forms from this system.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 212043
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2043 UTC SAT JUL 21 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902012) 20120721 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120721  1800   120722  0600   120722  1800   120723  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.0N 106.0W   10.0N 108.1W   10.8N 110.2W   11.7N 112.4W
BAMD     9.0N 106.0W    9.9N 107.9W   10.9N 109.6W   11.7N 111.2W
BAMM     9.0N 106.0W    9.9N 107.9W   10.7N 109.6W   11.6N 111.2W
LBAR     9.0N 106.0W    9.9N 107.9W   10.6N 110.0W   11.4N 112.1W
SHIP        25KTS          35KTS          45KTS          53KTS
DSHP        25KTS          35KTS          45KTS          53KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120723  1800   120724  1800   120725  1800   120726  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.4N 114.8W   13.3N 120.2W   13.3N 125.8W   12.4N 131.2W
BAMD    12.5N 112.8W   13.9N 116.3W   15.6N 120.8W   17.2N 125.8W
BAMM    12.3N 113.1W   13.7N 117.3W   14.9N 122.0W   15.8N 127.0W
LBAR    12.0N 114.3W   13.1N 118.3W   14.5N 122.7W   14.2N 127.4W
SHIP        59KTS          59KTS          54KTS          48KTS
DSHP        59KTS          59KTS          54KTS          48KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.0N LONCUR = 106.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =   8.2N LONM12 = 104.1W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =   7.5N LONM24 = 102.2W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUL 21 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

11 PM PDT TWO at 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 21 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

5 AM PDT TWO at 60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 22 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, that was fast. Gilma is on its way

[cycloneye]

Up to 80%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 22 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE SURFACE CENTER
TODAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Yellow Evan]

Man, this storm is devloping quickly.

[Yellow Evan]

Is the ATTCF out?

[cycloneye]

I gave you the link to ATCF but here it is again.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

EP, 90, 2012072218, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1102W, 25, 1008, LO

[Yellow Evan]

So, no upgrade atm.

[Kingarabian]

Was getting bored, but Gilma may be here sooner than expected.

[cycloneye]

From the 22:05 UTC discussion of Special Feature.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
10N110W IS THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE
EXTENDING FROM 15N108W TO LOW CENTER AND THE MONSOON TROUGH.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN
180 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AND SCATTERED MODERATE EXISTS
WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK TO MODERATE...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES VERY
WARM...AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AND THE SYSTEM HAS
NOW A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Stays at 80%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUL 22 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THIS LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

EP, 90, 2012072300, , BEST, 0, 102N, 1111W, 25, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Kingarabian]

Lacking in convection, but shouldn't be a problem.

[cycloneye]

5 AM TWO/ TD at anytime

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM AT ANY TIME DURING NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Yellow Evan]

Gilma is on its way.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Hurry up Gilma, where getting bored

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 785 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM DURING NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Still not organized enough to be declared a tropical depression. If this system develops, it is unlikely that get anything stronger than 50 mph. Definitely no hurricane in my opinion.

[Yellow Evan]

It's fairly close, remember that this is day time and thus at D-Min.