WPAC: SAOLA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

very dangerous storm...saola has slowed down over the past few hours due to damrey passing to its north...torrential rains and more flooding in this already soaked and battered region...100 knots for northern taiwan or china? deadly...

[euro6208]

TXPQ25 KNES 311521
TCSWNP

A. 10W (SAOLA)

B. 31/1432Z

C. 22.1N

D. 124.0E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...10W HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND AN EYE HAS
FORMED IN THE PAST TWO HOURS. OW EYE EMBEDDED IN DG AND SURROUNDED BY
MG YIELDS A DT OF 4.5 MET = 4.0. PT = 4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 969.4mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 4.9 4.9

Scene Type : LARGE EYE

Weakening Flag : OFF

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/10WP.GIF

raw T# already near 90 knots

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 966.6mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.8 5.5

skyrocketing

Scene Type : EYE

[euro6208]

getting better and better organized, i would estimates the intensity at 90 knots 1 min, higher than what dvorak is saying...

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 961.6mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.8 5.1








The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[Meow]

The JMA finally upgraded Saola to a typhoon! Finally!



TY 1209 (SAOLA)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 31 July 2012

<Analyses at 31/18 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N22°25'(22.4°)
E123°50'(123.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL750km(400NM)

<Estimate for 31/19 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N22°30'(22.5°)
E123°50'(123.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL750km(400NM)

<Forecast for 01/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°10'(23.2°)
E123°20'(123.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 01/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°55'(23.9°)
E122°55'(122.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 02/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°50'(25.8°)
E121°40'(121.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 03/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°50'(28.8°)
E118°40'(118.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

[Meow]

JTWC: 75 knots



WTPN31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 22.4N 123.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 123.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 23.4N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 24.4N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.5N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.7N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 28.4N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 29.3N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 123.7E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[phwxenthusiast]

we're seeing yet another area of strong convection moving into North Luzon.. these areas of strong vorticity have been fairly well modeled by the GFS in its past few runs, indicating an enhancement by the topography of Taiwan... could be another round of strong winds and heavy rain in Luzon...unfortunately for Saola, that may mean a struggle in its intensification...



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dhoeze]

That huge Red Ball.. is that heading for Luzon again?

[ejeraldmc]

Is this why Manila Bay is currently overflowing? :/

[Typhoon Hunter]

In NE Taiwan right now, will update when I can! Feeder bands bringing torrential rain at moment, expect things to deteriorate very badly over night and into tomorrow morning!

[mrbagyo]

looks like a category 3-4 now... rapid intensification is ongoing, catching some heavy rains here in manila

[RobWESTPACWX]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=bSlGOwitoxM[/youtube]

Here is my latest update, I hope its useful. Some really interesting photos on it though of two storms in one shot.

[Meow]

JMA: 70 knots

The forecast is a bit ridiculous.



TY 1209 (SAOLA)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 1 August 2012

<Analyses at 01/06 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N23°25'(23.4°)
E123°25'(123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE750km(400NM)
NW560km(300NM)

<Estimate for 01/07 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N23°30'(23.5°)
E123°25'(123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE750km(400NM)
NW560km(300NM)

<Forecast for 01/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°10'(24.2°)
E122°55'(122.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area ALL180km(95NM)

<Forecast for 01/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°35'(24.6°)
E122°10'(122.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 02/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°50'(24.8°)
E122°10'(122.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 110km(60NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 02/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°30'(25.5°)
E122°00'(122.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

[RobWESTPACWX]

93kph winds currently being reported in Miyakojima. http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas/219.html?elementCode=1

[RobWESTPACWX]

Talk about just missing direct landfall. This loop really shows how close it was for Miyake-Jim
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

[euro6208]

Extremely dangerous Typhoon Saola strengthens to 90 knots and expected to intensify a bit more to 100 knots before making landfall over china....that is if it doesn't hit taiwan first...

WTPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 23.6N 123.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 123.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 24.5N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.8N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 27.3N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 28.6N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 29.9N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 30.1N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 123.2E.
TYPHOON 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTHEAST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 35
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z. REFER
TO TYPHOON 11W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTHEAST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO BUILD AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 010708Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGES REVEALS THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC AS
A MICROWAVE EYE HAS NEARLY FORMED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE ABOVE MENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE OF DIVERGENCE
DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR WEAK (05-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE OUTFLOW
COULD ALMOST BE CONSIDERED RADIAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. INDUCED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING RESIDES IN
THIS AREA IN BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. TY 10W IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTER TAU 24 THE STR TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE CAUSING THE TRACK TO SHIFT MORE
WESTWARD WITH A SUBSEQUENT SPEED INCREASE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK NEAR 29C ALLOWING FOR TY 10W TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF
100 KNOTS BY TAU 24. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 36,
WITH FRICTIONAL FORCES STARTING TO WEAKEN TY 10W THROUGH TAU 72.
C. TY 10W WILL HAVE DISSIPATED OVERLAND BY TAU 96. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE GFDN WHICH TRACKS MORE POLEWARD INTO THE STRONG
STR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST BASED ON THE
CONTINUED TREND IN OBJECTIVE AIDS AND SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT AS
ANALYZED IN THE 01/00Z 500 MB SOUNDINGS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[Typhoon Hunter]

Latest radar is just crazy, I think Saola is making a last ditch burst of intensification before clipping / brushing Taiwan. I am north of Yila right now.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[RL3AO]

Impressive James. Looking forward to the video you get.

[brunota2003]

Wow! Radar images like that (how it looks) are fairly difficult to come by, certainly impressive. Too bad we don't have radar over the oceans too, you'd see more images like that with Typhoons/Hurricanes, and they wouldn't have to make landfall.