ATL: INVEST 98L

[MGC]

Needs a bit more deep convection to get named IMO.....I'm fine with all the high latitude systems....MGC

[ozonepete]

Looks good enough for Ernesto to me.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 40%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAVE DIMINISHED.
THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH MPH AND IS LIKELY
PRODUCING WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES COOLER WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[ozonepete]

I remember making the same argument about Chris: The symmetry was so good with Chris that it had a much stronger chance to get deep convection around the center. This one has even better symmetry than Chris did. Look at that perfect circle of the circulation envelope. That's why I think it has a pretty good shot at spinning up into a full TS before the cooler waters diminish its energy input.

[ozonepete]

Latest. Would you call that a tropical disturbance or depression with that eye feature? "Eye feature" does not mean "eye" as we all know from frequent discussion here. What it means is that this tropical low has developed an eye-like feature with good symmetry. We will see how much convection develops near the center over the next 24 hours, but Chris had slightly less symmetry and became a hurricane over cooler water. Just sayin'...

[JonathanBelles]

My thoughts on 98L, which I think will pull through overnight, but I am not sold on Ernesto. Also included are thoughts on the new tropical wave and SAL's impact on Florida.

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/2012/07/24/547

[cycloneye]

Bye to 98L.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 20
MPH AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS LATER TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

Nothing new at 2 PM TWO from this morning's outlook.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 25 TO
30 MPH AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS LATER TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Look at that. Does anyone think this system will be upgraded in post season? IMO,at least it has been with a very well defined circulation and almost all the time with convection,although it went almost away last night.

AL, 98, 2012072518, , BEST, 0, 438N, 494W, 45, 999, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Florida1118]

Look at that. Does anyone think this system will be upgraded in post season? IMO,at least it has been with a very well defined circulation and almost all the time with convection,although it went almost away last night.

AL, 98, 2012072518, , BEST, 0, 438N, 494W, 45, 999, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

I think its possible, but it really would only be for 6-12 hours. Im leaning more towards no since the convection wasn't sustained

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NON-
TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES EAST OF CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. THE LOW IS NOW MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 30 TO 35 MPH OVER COLD WATERS...AND DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[ozonepete]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Look at that. Does anyone think this system will be upgraded in post season? IMO,at least it has been with a very well defined circulation and almost all the time with convection,although it went almost away last night.

AL, 98, 2012072518, , BEST, 0, 438N, 494W, 45, 999, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

Good observation cycloneye. I'm pretty sure it will be, since it had the winds and the correct structure and it doesn't matter for how long it did in the end.

So how many possible post-season upgrades do we have now? I think it's 3, right?

Hope everyone inflated their forecast number of storms at the last minute when we submitted our forecasts for the pre-season poll, lol.

[hurricanes1234]

This storm had everything a tropical cyclone needs - a well-defined circulation, wrapping rain bands, etc. I am still wondering why the NHC did not upgrade it to a TC. Maybe it will be in the post-tropical re-analysis.