WPAC: HAIKUI - Post-Tropical

[Meow]

Southeast of Iō-tō.

[Meow]

It is now a tropical depression with a warning.



WWJP25 RJTD 011200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 011200.
WARNING VALID 021200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 22.4N 146.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Meow]

ABPW10 PGTW 011300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/011300Z-020600ZAUG2012//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010752ZAUG2012//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010751ZAUG2012//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
...
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.3N
145.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 145.5E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTH
OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BUILDING AND
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE
DISTURBANCE LIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE DIVERGENCE WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, APPROXIMATELY SIX DEGREES POLEWARD OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS, AND THREE DEGREES SOUTH OF A COL THAT LIES
BETWEEN TWO TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELLS. THIS CURRENT
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS PROVIDING FOR MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30
KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, PAST 24 HOUR WIND SHEAR
TENDENCY SHOWS A DECREASE OF 10 KNOTS AND INDICATES AN IMPROVING
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. A 011104Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES
BROAD CURVATURE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE LLCC. SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERN
END OF AN EXTREMELY TIGHT MONSOON TROUGH, WITH AN ELONGATED LLCC. A
010222Z OCEANSAT PASS CONFIRMS THE AREA OF TIGHT TROUGHING, WITH 30
KNOT WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH AND 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS CLOSER TO THE
CENTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) THROUGHOUT THE REGION ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A FAVORABLE 27 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER SLOWLY WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE SSTS
AND IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
...
NNNN

[euro6208]

the west pacific sure is super active now another tropical cyclone is forecast to develop out from this...

[Meow]

Too fast...



TD
Issued at 19:05 UTC, 1 August 2012

<Analyses at 01/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N23°25'(23.4°)
E146°20'(146.3°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 02/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N23°25'(23.4°)
E142°20'(142.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[phwxenthusiast]

exposed

[Meow]

TCFA



WTPN21 PGTW 012230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.3N 145.9E TO 24.2N 140.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 012200Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 145.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.3N
145.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 145.3E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) INDICATES AN ORGANIZED, EXPOSED, SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED 120 NM WEST OF A CURVED BAND OF
DEEP CONVECTION. MSI ALSO SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF INTENSE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGLY CONVERGENT WESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE INDICATE
CONVERGENT WESTERLY WINDS OF 22-26 KNOTS WITH SLP VALUES RANGING FROM
1003-1005 MB. A 012036Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE ALSO INDICATES A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED BUT RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LLCC WITH WELL-DEFINED SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE BANDING. RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH A CONSOLIDATING, DEEP MOISTURE ENVELOPE.
RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND FAVORABLE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, THE GOOD OUTFLOW IS OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
STRONG (30-40 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY AS VWS
DECREASES WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WESTWARD TOWARD OKINAWA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
022230Z.//
NNNN

[RL3AO]

WPAC about to go crazy.

[phwxenthusiast]

holy crap...

btw, big change on today's 00z Euro.. now showing 99W becoming a typhoon over the East China Sea and possibly affecting Kyushu, Western Honshu, and South Korea...

[mrbagyo]

monster in the making in 7 days according to euro

[Meow]

The pressure is so low for a tropical depression.



TD
Issued at 13:30 UTC, 2 August 2012

<Analyses at 02/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N23°25'(23.4°)
E145°00'(145.0°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N23°35'(23.6°)
E142°05'(142.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[euro6208]

North of Guam...i just came back from the beach and the waves are enormous! made me think of Saola, Damrey which hit populated areas and now this...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.4N
145.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 143.4E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWO-TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
INDICATES AN ORGANIZED, EXPOSED, SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED 120 NM WEST OF A CURVED BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION. MSI ALSO SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF INTENSE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGLY CONVERGENT WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. RECENT
SHIP OBSERVATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE INDICATE CONVERGENT
WESTERLY WINDS OF 22-26 KNOTS WITH SLP VALUES RANGING FROM 1003-1005
MB. A 012036Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE ALSO INDICATES A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
BUT RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LLCC WITH WELL-DEFINED SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
BANDING. RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC WITH A CONSOLIDATING, DEEP MOISTURE ENVELOPE. RECENT
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND FAVORABLE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, THE GOOD OUTFLOW IS OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
STRONG (30-40 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY AS VWS
DECREASES WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WESTWARD TOWARD OKINAWA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

TXPQ27 KNES 021600
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 02/1432Z

C. 23.9N

D. 142.3E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM EXHIBITS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN CENTER POSITION. DT OF 1.0 IS BASED ON GT 0.2 BANDING. MET AND PT
ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

i am in awe right now if this holds true...another landfalling typhoon?

this isn't china, hong kong or taiwan but now the koreas, japan and russia in the line of fire...

[euro6208]

very impressive vorticity north of guam

[Meow]

Still a TD.



TD
Issued at 19:20 UTC, 2 August 2012

<Analyses at 02/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N23°35'(23.6°)
E142°25'(142.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 03/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N24°30'(24.5°)
E139°05'(139.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[Extratropical94]

NRL website is now showing 12W.TWELVE and the TCFA has disappeared from JTWC's site.
That means we will see inofficial TD or TS 12W in a few minutes.

[Meow]

It is now Tropical Storm Haikui.



TS 1211 (HAIKUI)
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 3 August 2012

<Analyses at 03/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N23°40'(23.7°)
E141°30'(141.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E560km(300NM)
W280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N25°20'(25.3°)
E135°55'(135.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 05/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°30'(26.5°)
E130°20'(130.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 06/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N27°10'(27.2°)
E126°55'(126.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

[RobWESTPACWX]

Pronouncing this storm is rough, I hope I got it right in the tube cast today.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_lCSSk_XRx4&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

[mrbagyo]

110 knots in120 Hours?

WTPN33 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 23.9N 141.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 141.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.8N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 25.6N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 26.3N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 26.9N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.7N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 28.0N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 28.7N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 140.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM EAST OF
KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
030000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z,
032100Z AND 040300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA)
FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W
(DAMREY) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).//
NNNN