ATL: INVEST 91L

[northjaxpro]

Jax. FL NWS Web Briefing on 91L.....

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/jax/vBrie ... /index.htm

This is an excellent briefing from my home NWS office.

The area is looking better to me this evening. I am in catch up mode as the tropics are really perculating right now after our lull in July. Ernesto slowly organizing in the Eastern Caribbean, 90L on the cusp of becoming another named storm out in the far tropical Atlantic, and now 91L in the Bahamas.

It is going to be some rather interesting days ahead!

[chaser1]

It is also important to remember that the swampy area of Florida it is passing over is probably going to do very little to disturb this system since it is so unorganized as it is. If it should enter into the Gulf then it should have the ability to get cranking if conditions are right.

But if Ernesto Ramps up then conditions shouldn't be right for this area to develop as well... Ernesto should be sending outflow which would increase shear into the GoM if it becomes a Hurricane...

Earlier point is right on, regarding 91L being impacted when eventually moving over S. Florida. In fact, should upper air support continue to allow present bursting to continue & to the extent that a more evident LLC becomes established, than it would not surprise me at all if a tight/small COC were to develop prior to moving inland. No doubt we've seen cases where developing depressions just looked like they were wraping up right over our tepid soggy Everglades. Interestingly, if some deepening were to (or is) occuring, than this too might temporarily retard the systems WNW advancement (at least for a few more hours). I almost expect this to develop into a depression and would seem to very much fall within one of this season's "characteristic tracks". If so, parts of S. Florida get an additional 3"-5" of rain - no big deal; Of greater interest might be that it could be further indication of another (more significant) system to approach S. Florida over the next 10 weeks.

[smw1981]

It is also important to remember that the swampy area of Florida it is passing over is probably going to do very little to disturb this system since it is so unorganized as it is. If it should enter into the Gulf then it should have the ability to get cranking if conditions are right.

But if Ernesto Ramps up then conditions shouldn't be right for this area to develop as well... Ernesto should be sending outflow which would increase shear into the GoM if it becomes a Hurricane...

Depends on which one "wins" the race! If 91L is to be crossing the lower end of Florida Sunday night, she could win the race and could possibly stay ahead of Ernesto's outflow (if Ernesto even has outflow by then)..

*Disclaimer: Just my amateur opinion..nothing professional about it!

[jlauderdal]

NHC_DrRickKnabb2 mins
Air Force recon might investigate system off #Florida east coast Sat. afternoon: http://ow.ly/1OoGtD #tropics

[ilovestorms]

NHC_DrRickKnabb2 mins
Air Force recon might investigate system off #Florida east coast Sat. afternoon: http://ow.ly/1OoGtD #tropics

? I thought I saw somewhere on here where that was already scheduled?

[jlauderdal]

NHC_DrRickKnabb2 mins
Air Force recon might investigate system off #Florida east coast Sat. afternoon: http://ow.ly/1OoGtD #tropics

? I thought I saw somewhere on here where that was already scheduled?

could be but i saw that tweet roll in and thought it might be fresh info..anyway, I am surprised they are that interested in this wave but as usual lets see what tomorrow brings..these close in systems can die or develop quickly, maybe a td out of this thing

[RL3AO]

NHC_DrRickKnabb2 mins
Air Force recon might investigate system off #Florida east coast Sat. afternoon: http://ow.ly/1OoGtD #tropics

? I thought I saw somewhere on here where that was already scheduled?

They will cancel if its not needed.

[jlauderdal]

NHC_DrRickKnabb2 mins
Air Force recon might investigate system off #Florida east coast Sat. afternoon: http://ow.ly/1OoGtD #tropics

? I thought I saw somewhere on here where that was already scheduled?

They will cancel if its not needed.

THIS FLIGHT HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING AIRBORNE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[ilovestorms]

? I thought I saw somewhere on here where that was already scheduled?[/quote]

They will cancel if its not needed.[/quote]


THIS FLIGHT HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING AIRBORNE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.[/quote]

Yeah I knew they would cancel if not needed, but I did not see the "20% chance of being airborne" statement. I wish I could remember where on here I saw it so that it could be edited to include that statement so that it's not misleading to other people! Thanks for clarifying that!

[RL3AO]

Yeah I knew they would cancel if not needed, but I did not see the "20% chance of being airborne" statement. I wish I could remember where on here I saw it so that it could be edited to include that statement so that it's not misleading to other people! Thanks for clarifying that!

That was a joke in the format of the TWO.

[thetruesms]

While we're making jokes, this isn't allowed to become a tropical cyclone - my briefing this morning said it wouldn't, and I won't be writing another one until Monday

[hurricanes1234]

This system seems to be less organized now...we'll see what happens. If this develops though, it may wreak havoc on the nearby landmasses.

[fci]

This looks less menacing to me tonight but might spike up with daytime heat of the day Saturday. I'm not too concerned for South Florida due to it's proximity to the coast and I can't remember anything really popping up in the NW Bahamas that developed so rapidly as to cause a problem for my area. Now, if it crosses the Peninsula into the GOM, they could be a problem or if it moves North towards NE FL or the SE US coast. For South Florida no big whoop.



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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jinftl]

Latest image

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

MiamiWx Assessment was excellent and I agree that once the shear lets up and the ridge
builds in this could be a tropical storm moving into South Florida this weekend.
I'm not too worried about the wind, after all this is a tropical storm and nothing compared to the
major hurricanes that crossed the state in 04 and 05, but I do think
some areas could see some very heavy rain from this.

[Hurricane Alexis]

MiamiWx Assessment was excellent and I agree that once the shear lets up and the ridge
builds in this could be a tropical storm moving into South Florida this weekend.
I'm not too worried about the wind, after all this is a tropical storm and nothing compared to the
major hurricanes that crossed the state in 04 and 05, but I do think
some areas could see some very heavy rain from this.

Possibly another Debby?

[chaser1]

Boy, 0Z GFS showing "very little love" for 91L. For that matter, seems rather unimpressed with any of our present players.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Where can i get the SHIPS shear forecast for this?

[stormhunter7]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html looks like 91L is moving up and is near northern islands of Bahamas now? 26n 78w area? **looks like the recent NAM run?

[Hurricane Alexis]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/flash-swir-long.html looks like 91L is moving up and is near northern islands of Bahamas now? 26n 78w area? **looks like the recent NAM run?

According to the Miami AFD it's gonna move in to SF as a tropical wave.