ATL: INVEST 95L

[northjaxpro]

95L is looking better by the hour. Air Force Recon Hurricane Hunter aircraft I believe has been scheduled to fly down there to check the system out later this afternoon.

Not what I'm seeing. Looks like it's merging with the pre-frontal trof as wind shear increases overhead. Convection elongating to the NE. No LLC. Recon will probably not fly.

I respectfully disagree with you. There is a elongated low level circulation which is stationary just off the coastline. RGB and visible satellite imagery will show that. Also, it is evidently significant enough for NHC to send out Air Force Recon down there to see what is going on later this afternoon.

Post is not official forecast. Just the opinion of this poster. Please refer to the latest information from NHC or NWS offices.

[psyclone]

i am surprised they're flying into this. it looks very frontal in nature. i'd be surprised if they find much.

[Zanthe]

...Even if it's frontal in nature, it's entirely possible that it becomes not frontal. Obviously they need to investigate it because, if it is frontal, it could easily become a tropical cyclone. If it isn't frontal, then it's even easier. It's not like we haven't seen a system go from frontal to tropical -- heck, we've seen it this year too. Given how close this is to the coast, I think it's better safe then sorry. They won't declare it if it isn't a tropical cyclone, that doesn't stop them from believing it'll become one, or investigating it. I think it has a very good chance at becoming a tropical cyclone in its lifetime.

[wxman57]

95L is looking better by the hour. Air Force Recon Hurricane Hunter aircraft I believe has been scheduled to fly down there to check the system out later this afternoon.

Not what I'm seeing. Looks like it's merging with the pre-frontal trof as wind shear increases overhead. Convection elongating to the NE. No LLC. Recon will probably not fly.

I respectfully disagree with you. There is a elongated low level circulation which is stationary just off the coastline. RGB and visible satellite imagery will show that. Also, it is evidently significant enough for NHC to send out Air Force Recon down there to see what is going on later this afternoon.

Post is not official forecast. Just the opinion of this poster. Please refer to the latest information from NHC or NWS offices.

There was a clear mid-level circulation yesterday, but I don't see any evidence of a surface circulation. Just a wind shift behind the front (which is nearing the disturbance now). I think you may be looking at a circulation aloft. Still doubt recon will fly into it.

[tropicwatch]

The first visible loops this morning appeared to have a circulation before the end of the frontal system sank far enough south to become co-mingled.

It also appears to be in a moderately favorable environment for development.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Post is not official forecast. Just the opinion of this poster. Please refer to the latest information from NHC or NWS offices.

[Aric Dunn]

I respectfully disagree with you. There is a elongated low level circulation which is stationary just off the coastline. RGB and visible satellite imagery will show that. Also, it is evidently significant enough for NHC to send out Air Force Recon down there to see what is going on later this afternoon.

Post is not official forecast. Just the opinion of this poster. Please refer to the latest information from NHC or NWS offices.

There was a clear mid-level circulation yesterday, but I don't see any evidence of a surface circulation. Just a wind shift behind the front (which is nearing the disturbance now). I think you may be looking at a circulation aloft. Still doubt recon will fly into it.

well recon is on their way.

[senorpepr]

No change...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF
IT REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

[wxman57]

Can't imagine the NHC would call it a TD, as the cold front is moving into it.

[ozonepete]

Can't imagine the NHC would call it a TD, as the cold front is moving into it.

The cold front is forecast to stall out along the Gulf coast.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

[wxman57]

The wind shift is already 250 miles off the TX coast and well south of Brownsville - all the way to the disturbance. Wind shear is on the increase and convection is decreasing. That's why the mid-level swirl is becoming more apparent. At best we have a frontal wave that will probably not develop any further before it either moves inland into MX or dissipates.

[ozonepete]

That wind shift is along a prefrontal trough, which doesn't have an air mass change in most cases, including this one. Temps and dewpoints are still the same behind the trough. The front is way back from central Texas to the LA coast and is not expected to get past the coastline. I would say the trough could interfere with the surface circ to some degree but these troughs tend to dissipate pretty quickly over the warm water. If the circulation stays behind after that it still could develop.

[wxman57]

Yes, it's a pre-frontal trof offshore, but the effect is the same. Dry air is hitting the coast now, as evident by mid 60s dew points here in Houston. Plane is finding the trof out there now. Alternating between SW-WSW wind south of the trof and NW winds north of the boundary.

[ozonepete]

Yes, it's a pre-frontal trof offshore, but the effect is the same. Dry air is hitting the coast now, as evident by mid 60s dew points here in Houston. Plane is finding the trof out there now. Alternating between SW-WSW wind south of the trof and NW winds north of the boundary.

Yeah, any westerly winds feeding into the circulation are also downsloping off the arid mountains. That's obviously not good. To me the only real chance for this is if it drifts or gets pushed southeastward and hangs out fir a few days.

I'm sure you're likin' those lower dewpoints.

[psyclone]

I really am surprised they flew this today...they must have been bored. no shock they're not finding anything thus far.

[hurricanes1234]

This system needs to detach from that trough to develop any further. Otherwise, it will be absorbed by it.

______________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Stormcenter]

It's pretty obvious something is still there trying organize. IMO

saved loop

http://img811.imageshack.us/img811/5879 ... imated.gif

[cheezyWXguy]

It's pretty obvious something is still there trying organize. IMO

saved loop

http://img811.imageshack.us/img811/5879 ... imated.gif

well it may be trying but sure doesn't look to be succeeding...

[wjs3]

Ozonepete and Wxman57:

Nice discussion, guys. I am on a conference call now, so can't type too much, but if one of you guys has a chance, you might want to tell people why the west winds (which are so important in closing off easterly waves into a closed circ) don't matter here!

Totally different set up!

[Aric Dunn]

Appears to be two vorts. one south associated with the convection that came off mexico this morning and another on the upper end of the convection. Not a td yet needs to develop a well defined llc and it will break away from the trof pretty quick.