ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
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HurricaneBrain
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
First plots for 95L
Code: Select all
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1849 UTC SUN AUG 19 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952012) 20120819 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120819 1200 120820 0000 120820 1200 120821 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.7N 98.1W 22.9N 98.5W 23.7N 99.2W 23.7N 100.1W
BAMD 21.7N 98.1W 22.1N 98.3W 22.2N 98.5W 22.0N 98.9W
BAMM 21.7N 98.1W 22.7N 98.3W 23.2N 98.5W 23.1N 98.9W
LBAR 21.7N 98.1W 22.2N 98.4W 23.2N 98.6W 24.4N 98.5W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 31KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 26KTS 26KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120821 1200 120822 1200 120823 1200 120824 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.8N 101.4W 23.6N 104.0W 23.3N 106.4W 22.8N 108.4W
BAMD 21.6N 99.6W 21.1N 101.9W 20.8N 104.9W 20.5N 108.1W
BAMM 22.8N 99.8W 22.1N 102.1W 21.4N 104.8W 20.5N 107.9W
LBAR 25.6N 97.9W 28.7N 95.3W 32.4N 91.3W 35.6N 86.2W
SHIP 37KTS 45KTS 54KTS 60KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 35KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.7N LONCUR = 98.1W DIRCUR = 75DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 21.5N LONM12 = 97.9W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 21.3N LONM24 = 97.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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HurricaneBrain
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HurricaneBrain
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Re: Re:
FutureEM wrote:HurricaneBrain wrote:From looking at the numbers, it looks like the models are taking it through Mexico in a NW direction. Hmmm...
To be fair these aren't very reliable models
Very true! The first model runs are usually garbage anyways.
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CYCLONE MIKE
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Front is supposed to move off the Louisiana coast tomorrow into tomorrow night then slowly wash out. Would surely think 95L would get slowly pulled north to some extent over the next couple of days. If it manages to get its act together somebody might be in for a little surprise.
And I will continue the how good the gfs is doing this year discussion over here. I have been one of the biggest gfs bashers over the years. But must admit it is suprisingly kicking butt this year. While all the attention was on 94 I was very surprised no one was really making much of the fact it was showing the remnants of Helen or whatever it was redeveloping into a moderate system and hitting the north gulf a few days ago. The CMC joined in and now look what could be going on. Will have to see if others join in now or not. A lot more interesting than 94 at the moment.
And I will continue the how good the gfs is doing this year discussion over here. I have been one of the biggest gfs bashers over the years. But must admit it is suprisingly kicking butt this year. While all the attention was on 94 I was very surprised no one was really making much of the fact it was showing the remnants of Helen or whatever it was redeveloping into a moderate system and hitting the north gulf a few days ago. The CMC joined in and now look what could be going on. Will have to see if others join in now or not. A lot more interesting than 94 at the moment.
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HurricaneBrain
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Portastorm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Seems to me like none of those models initialized the system correctly. I would guess 23/96.5-97 for a center.
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I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
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CYCLONE MIKE
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Must agree. Looking at zoomed in visibles looks like something is trying to get going just off the coast right around where portastorm said.
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Dean4Storms
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wxwatcher1999
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When will more models run on this?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Code: Select all
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1246 UTC MON AUG 20 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952012) 20120820 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120820 1200 120821 0000 120821 1200 120822 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.2N 97.2W 23.6N 97.4W 23.7N 98.2W 24.1N 99.1W
BAMD 23.2N 97.2W 22.9N 97.5W 22.4N 98.1W 22.1N 99.3W
BAMM 23.2N 97.2W 23.4N 97.4W 23.3N 98.1W 23.2N 99.0W
LBAR 23.2N 97.2W 23.4N 97.1W 24.0N 97.3W 24.7N 97.4W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120822 1200 120823 1200 120824 1200 120825 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.5N 100.3W 25.4N 102.6W 26.6N 104.0W 27.5N 104.3W
BAMD 21.7N 100.5W 21.1N 104.1W 21.2N 108.1W 21.8N 111.2W
BAMM 23.2N 100.2W 23.2N 103.0W 23.4N 105.8W 23.5N 107.7W
LBAR 25.9N 97.2W 29.5N 95.3W 34.0N 93.0W 36.2N 88.7W
SHIP 40KTS 45KTS 55KTS 65KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 35KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.2N LONCUR = 97.2W DIRCUR = 35DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 22.4N LONM12 = 98.1W DIRM12 = 15DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 21.7N LONM24 = 98.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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brunota2003
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