ATL: ISAAC - (HPC Advisories)

[JTD]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 210836
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

...NINTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 51.2W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE...AND ST.
MARTIN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...AND BARBUDA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
*GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE...AND ST.
MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...AND BARBUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND EMERGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR
MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
0900 UTC TUE AUG 21 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE...AND ST.
MARTIN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...AND BARBUDA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
*GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE...AND ST.
MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...AND BARBUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 51.2W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 51.2W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 50.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.3N 53.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.7N 57.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.3N 63.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.9N 69.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 18.0N 74.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 20.0N 77.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 51.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND T1.5/25 KT
FROM SAB. SINCE THE 0600 UTC SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE WITH SOME CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -80C NOTED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/17 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
INTACT FOR THE NEXT FOUR DAYS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE
MOVING IN A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 96
HOURS. BY DAY 5...HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCA...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF THE FASTER GFS MODEL AND SLOWER
ECMWF MODEL.

OTHER THAN SOME MODEST NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. DURING DAYS 2-3...THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE THE WEAKEST AND WATER TEMPERATURES
THE WARMEST...AND THAT IS WHEN THE MOST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
SHOULD OCCUR. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LAND
MASSES OF HAITI AND CUBA...RESPECTIVELY...IS THE PRIMARY REASON
FOR THE LEVELING OFF IN THE INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF...BUT IS LOWER THAN...THE
SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3 AND 4.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE
CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 15.2N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 15.3N 53.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 15.7N 57.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 16.0N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 16.3N 63.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 16.9N 69.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 18.0N 74.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 20.0N 77.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Extraordinary.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
800 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HEADED FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES...EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 51.8W
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
*GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE...AND ST.
MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...ANGUILLA...AND BARBUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND EMERGE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR
MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
200 PM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT APPROACHING THE
DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 53.2W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND ST. MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...ANGUILLA...AND BARBUDA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...29 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND EMERGE
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE DEPRESSION.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 53.9W
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND ST. MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...ANGUILLA...AND BARBUDA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND EMERGE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST MEASURED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
DEPRESSION REPORTED 44-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 1000 FT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AS WELL AS BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE
WINDS ESTIMATES OF 35 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS NEAR
1005 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC. DESPITE THE UPGRADE...THE CYCLONE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED TO
THE NORTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS NUDGED NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
THE LONGER TERM MOTION IS 275/15. ISAAC REMAINS SOUTH OF A
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT
FOR THE NEXT 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY
WESTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.
AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND
THE BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE GUIDANCE HAS BECOME LESS CONSISTENT
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WHILE THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE...THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE
LEFT OF ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NOW CALLS FOR A WESTWARD MOTION
AFTER ISAAC PASSES HISPANIOLA. THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE ALSO SHIFTED
WESTWARD...ALTHOUGH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN STILL LIES NEAR THE FORECAST
TRACK. THE NEW TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BEFORE 72 HR...AND THEN IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT THEREAFTER. THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER 72 HR LIES NEAR THE
LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH ONLY THE ECMWF WELL TO
THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. USERS ARE CAUTIONED THAT FIVE-DAY
TRACK ERRORS AVERAGE ABOUT 225 N MI.

ISAAC CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...AND IT MAY NOT YET HAVE FULLY MIXED OUT THE DRY AIR THAT
HAS BEEN AFFECTING IT. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN 12-24
HR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING. THAT BEING SAID...THE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THEIR FORECASTS OF
INTENSIFICATION...AND THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE ALSO LESS
BULLISH. BASED ON THIS...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE
LESS STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST AFTER 72 HR HAS AGAIN BEEN REDUCED DUE TO THE FORECAST
TRACK SHOWING INCREASED LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 15.4N 53.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 15.6N 56.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 15.9N 59.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 16.3N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 16.6N 66.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 17.0N 71.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 19.5N 75.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 21.5N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
800 PM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

...ISAAC CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 54.9W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND ST. MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.9 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND EMERGE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA BY THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[artist]

WTNT34 KNHC 220248
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

...ISAAC CONTINUES WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 55.6W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND ST. MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.6 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
ON THURSDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[artist]

000
WTNT24 KNHC 220247
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
0300 UTC WED AUG 22 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND ST. MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 55.6W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 55.6W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 54.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.8N 58.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.2N 61.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.7N 64.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.1N 67.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.3N 72.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 20.5N 76.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 23.0N 79.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 55.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[artist]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 220249
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

THERE HAS BEEN NO AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE INTO ISAAC RECENTLY...BUT
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STORM HAS NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT
WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.
ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ISAAC
AT AROUND 0600 UTC.

THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN CENTER FIXES...BUT BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY
AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS ABOUT THE
SAME...275/16. A WELL-DEFINED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT ISAAC NEARING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA.
CONSEQUENTLY THE FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY TO SLOW...AND THE HEADING
TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT...IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS SHIFTED JUST A BIT TO THE
NORTH OF ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST...OVERALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST HWRF TRACK AND NOT FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL
CONSENSUS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING ISAAC...BUT THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE PREDICTS A
DECREASE IN SHEAR WITH UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED...AND ISAAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER ON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS COMPLICATED BY HOW MUCH THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH
THE MOUNTAINOUS LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND THEN TRIES TO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT THE LAND INTERACTION. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF ISAAC IN THE 3 TO 5
DAY TIME FRAME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 15.6N 55.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 15.8N 58.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 16.2N 61.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 16.7N 64.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 17.1N 67.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 18.3N 72.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 26/0000Z 20.5N 76.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
120H 27/0000Z 23.0N 79.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[southerngale]

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
200 AM AST WED AUG 22 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ISAAC...OUTER RAINBANDS
MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 56.4W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND ST. MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR
LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.4 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
THIS EVENING...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





--------------------------------------------------------------------






ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 AM AST WED AUG 22 2012

...ISAAC GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 57.3W
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA
WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF
ISLA SAONA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND ST. MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF ISLA SAONA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN HAITI AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

NNNN




--------------------------------------------------------------------




ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
0900 UTC WED AUG 22 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA
WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF
ISLA SAONA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND ST. MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF ISLA SAONA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN HAITI AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 57.3W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 57.3W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 56.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.9N 59.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.3N 62.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.8N 65.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.3N 68.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.8N 73.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 21.8N 77.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 24.8N 80.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 57.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


NNNN




---------------------------------------------------------------------------




ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 AM AST WED AUG 22 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH INCLUDES SOME COLD
CLOUD TOPS OF -82 TO -86C VERY NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE SHARP
INCREASE IN INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS NOT YET TRANSLATED INTO ANY
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ISAAC THIS MORNING HAS ONLY FOUND THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE TO BE 1003 MB AND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 47
KT...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT A 40-KT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. SFMR WINDS
IN VERY HEAVY RAIN HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 61 KT. THE BIAS-ADJUSTED
SFMR WINDS HAVE BEEN RUNNING AS HIGH AS 54 KT...BUT EVEN THOSE
VALUES APPEAR TO BE INFLATED. UNTIL THE AIRCRAFT COMPLETES ITS
MISSION... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT BASED ON THE
1003 MB PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/15 KT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS A
BLEND OF THE RECON FIXES AND SATELLITE POSITIONS...AND CONTINUITY
WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ISAAC ALONG 30N LATITUDE IS
FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN INTACT ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH 72 HOURS OR SO. AFTER
THAT...A BROAD MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE
MOVING EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN EROSION OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
INCLUDING FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW ISAAC TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLVING SCENARIO WITH
THE ECMWF BEING THE LEFTMOST OF THE MODELS...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF
BEING THE RIGHTMOST OF THE MODELS. GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
OF THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS...MORE WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON THOSE
SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY HAVE A STRONGER AND VERTICALLY
DEEPER CYCLONE DEPICTED IN THE MODELS.

SHEAR ANALYSES FROM THE GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL AND UW-CIMSS
INDICATE BOTH THE DEEP-LAYER AND MID-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 10 KT...WHICH HAS FINALLY ALLOWED DEEP CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TO VALUES BELOW 5 KT BY 24 HOURS...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ISAAC TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS.
AT 72 AND 96 HOURS...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED DUE TO
EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION WITH HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. AFTER 96
HOURS...HOWEVER...ISAAC SHOULD BE MOVING BACK OVER THE VERY WARM
WATER BETWEEN CUBA AND FLORIDA. WITH SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 30C AND THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS DEPICTING A
EXTENSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REGIME COMPLETE WITH DUAL OUTFLOW
CHANNELS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST...STRENGTHENING APPEARS
LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG AND HOW MUCH ISAAC WILL INTERACT WITH
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...
DECAY-SHIPS...AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 15.5N 57.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 15.9N 59.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 16.3N 62.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 16.8N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 17.3N 68.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 18.8N 73.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 26/0600Z 21.8N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 27/0600Z 24.8N 80.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

NNNN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
800 AM AST WED AUG 22 2012

...ISAAC NEARING THE LESSER ANTILLES...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR
THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 58.4W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 19 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND ST. MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS
* SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF ISLA SAONA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN HAITI AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 19 MPH...31 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DATA IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
800 PM AST WED AUG 22 2012

...ISAAC ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 62.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SW OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND ST. MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF ISLA SAONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CUBA AND JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PASS NEAR OR SOUTH
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY...AND APPROACH
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ISAAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

[hurricanefloyd5]

...Reconnaissance aircraft finds the center of Isaac is reforming farther south...


summary of 200 am AST...0600 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...15.5n 63.5w
about 265 mi...425 km se of San Juan Puerto Rico
maximum sustained winds...45 mph...75 km/h
present movement...W or 260 degrees at 20 mph...32 km/h
minimum central pressure...1003 mb...29.62 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

none.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Coast of Dominican Republic from Isla Saona westward to the
Haiti-Dominican Republic southern border
* Haiti

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* St. Kitts...Nevis...Antigua...Barbuda...Montserrat...and Anguilla
* Saba...St. Eustatius...and St. Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico...Vieques...Culebra...and the U.S. Virgin Islands
* north coast of Dominican Republic from the Haiti-Dominican
Republic northern border eastward to north of Isla Saona

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins...Crooked
Island...long cay...the Inaguas...Mayaguana...and the Ragged
Islands and the Turks and Caicos Islands

a Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Cuba...Jamaica...and elsewhere in the Bahamas should
monitor the progress of Isaac.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States...including possible inland watches and warnings...please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States...please monitor products issued by your National
meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 200 am AST...0600 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 15.5 north...longitude 63.5 west. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 20 mph...32 km/h. Some erratic motion
toward the west-northwest or northwest could occur later this
morning...but a gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected
by this afternoon and continue into Friday. On the forecast
track...the center of Isaac should pass to the south of the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico today...and approach the Dominican Republic
tonight and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/h...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours...
and Isaac could become a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions should begin to subside over the
Leeward Islands later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
expected over Puerto Rico and the U.S. And British Virgin Islands
today. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of
the Dominican Republic by tonight or early Friday...and over
portions of Haiti on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible over the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos
Islands by late Friday.

Rainfall...total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are possible
over the northern Windward Islands and the Leeward Islands. Total
rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 6
inches are possible over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Total
rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches...with maximum amounts of
20 inches...are possible over Hispaniola. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Storm surge...a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as
3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the coast of Hispaniola. A storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the northern
Leeward Islands...Puerto Rico...and the U.S. And British Virgin
Islands. Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied by
dangerous waves.

Surf...dangerous surf and rip current conditions will affect the
Windward Islands...Leeward Islands...Virgin Islands...and Puerto
Rico during the next couple of days. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more information.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...500 am AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... hvV2uD6.99

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
800 AM AST THU AUG 23 2012

...ISSAC MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 64.8W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ESE OF ISLA SAONA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...21 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF ISLA SAONA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC HAS
REFORMED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/H. SOME ERRATIC MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING...
BUT A STEADY MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY...AND APPROACH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND
ISAAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY BEFORE IT REACHES
HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SUBSIDING OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY
TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...AND OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY LATE FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 23 2012

...ISAAC CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 65.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF ISLA SAONA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO TODAY...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND HAITI.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42060 RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE MEAN
WINDS OF 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 47 MPH...76 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SUBSIDING OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY FRIDAY...AND OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY LATE
FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 23 2012

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF ISAAC HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT THIS
MORNING...WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOPING AROUND THE
CENTER. HOWEVER...REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISAAC
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS
ROTATING AROUND A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS. IN ADDITION...THE
CENTER IN AIRCRAFT DATA IS NORTH OF THE CENTER SUGGESTED BY THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A COMBINATION OF FLIGHT-LEVEL...DROPSONDE...AND
SFMR WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NEAR 35 KT.

THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF ISAAC IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN 12
HR AGO. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO HAVE RESUMED A WESTWARD MOTION AT
ABOUT 13 KT. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
ISAAC SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR...
STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AFTER THAT...THE
STORM SHOULD APPROACH A WEAKNESS OR BREAK IN THE RIDGE OVER FLORIDA
AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON CURRENT POSITION
AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE
CONSENSUS MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THOUGH...THAT NEAR THE 96
HR POINT THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE SPREAD BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA...AND AT 120 HR THEY ARE BETWEEN
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THUS...
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE THREAT ISAAC POSES TO
FLORIDA.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRUCTURE OF ISAAC SUGGESTS THAT ONLY SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...WHICH COULD OCCUR IF THE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE. BASED ON THIS...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE
SYSTEM REACHES HISPANIOLA IN ABOUT 36 HR. AFTER THAT...PASSAGE OVER
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING...FOLLOWED BY
LITTLE CHANGE OF STRENGTH FROM 48-72 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO
THE FORECAST TRACK BEING A LITTLE FARTHER FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THAN BEFORE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...AND IT IS WELL
ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 15.6N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 16.1N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 16.9N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 18.0N 72.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 19.3N 74.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 22.0N 78.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/1200Z 24.5N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 28/1200Z 27.5N 84.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
200 PM AST THU AUG 23 2012

...CENTER OF ISAAC NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 66.4W
ABOUT 165 MI...255 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NORTHERN BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF ISLA SAONA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST. ISAAC IS NOW
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO PASS SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO TODAY...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND HAITI. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING ISAAC.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42060 RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE MEAN
WINDS OF 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 47 MPH...76 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SUBSIDING OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY FRIDAY...AND OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY LATE
FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 PM AST THU AUG 23 2012

...ISAAC EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA TOMORROW ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 68.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...
SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND VILLA
CLARA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ANDROS ISLAND AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...
SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND VILLA
CLARA
* ANDROS ISLAND AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE
BAHAMAS...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL BE NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA ON
FRIDAY...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER
WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON FRIDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS BY LATE FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN CUBA BY LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL CUBA...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
AND ANDROS ISLAND BY SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
6 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST WITHIN THE REMAINING TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 PM AST THU AUG 23 2012

OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT
ISAAC HAS STRENGTHENED ONLY SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. FLIGHT-LEVEL
AND SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS NEAR 40 KT. THE STORM CONTINUES TO HAVE
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND...IF THE INNER CORE BECOMES
BETTER DEFINED...HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN AS LONG AS IT
REMAINS OVER WATER. HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER SOUTHWESTERN HISPANIOLA IN 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THIS
WOULD HALT ANY INTENSIFICATION. A LITTLE LATER ON...LAND
INTERACTIONS WITH EASTERN CUBA WOULD ALSO INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION
OR CAUSE WEAKENING. ISAAC WILL LIKELY RESTRENGTHEN WHEN IT MOVES
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY
PREDICTIONS AT 3-5 DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/16. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS CAUSING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...ISAAC SHOULD TURN TOWARD A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD HEADING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...PRIMARILY DUE TO AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE LATEST GFS
TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SOMEWHAT FASTER BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON BUOY
AND SHIP DATA. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK
BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A
LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION BY THE NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT HAS
BEEN CONDUCTED TO COLLECT ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS IN THE
LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT OF ISAAC. THESE DATA WILL BE ASSIMILATED
INTO THE 0000 UTC RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND SHOULD IMPROVE
THE ACCURACY OF THEIR FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT ADVISORY CYCLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 16.7N 68.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 17.5N 70.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 18.8N 73.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 20.2N 75.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 26/0000Z 21.8N 77.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 27/0000Z 24.8N 82.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 28/0000Z 27.5N 85.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 30.0N 88.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...ISSAC STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 70.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND VILLA
CLARA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* ANDROS ISLAND
* JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS LATER TODAY AND ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION EXPECTED TROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF ISAAC WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY...
PASS NEAR OR OVER HAITI TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER
REACHES THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT AND OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH NORTHWESTERN
CUBA AND ANDROS ISLAND BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
ISAAC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
WHILE THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS ELONGATED EAST-TO-WEST WITH
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA...THE LARGE CENTRAL AREA OF
LIGHT WINDS HAS SHRUNK AS THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVE CLOSER TO THE
CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED
66 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG
WITH SFMR BIAS-CORRECTED WIND ESTIMATES NEAR 50 KT. BASED ON THESE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.

THE 12Z POSITION USED A MEAN CENTER...WHICH RESULTED IN A SOUTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT. SINCE THEN...ISAAC APPEARS TO HAVE ACQUIRED A STRONGER
NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/12. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT ISAAC SHOULD MOVED NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72
HR...STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION...AND LIES NEAR
THE CONSENSUS MODELS. AFTER 72 HR...THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE INCREASES DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE ECMWF KEEPS MORE RIDGE
BETWEEN ISAAC AND THE TROUGH...WHICH RESULTS IN A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH DAY 5. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER TROUGH...WHICH
RESULTS IN A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD AFTER 72 HR...AND THUS THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO ADJUSTED EASTWARD.

WHILE THE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED...THE STRUCTURE OF ISAAC STILL
DOES NOT FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION DESPITE A VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN. THE EARLY PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN EARLIER...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT ISAAC COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES
HISPANIOLA. LAND INTERACTION WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY FROM 24-48
HR...AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST MAY NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT AFTER
IT IS SEEN WHAT STRUCTURE ISAAC HAS AFTER CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
ISAAC SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE FORECAST
SHOWING THE CYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE
AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 16.3N 70.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 17.4N 72.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 19.2N 75.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 20.9N 77.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 26/1200Z 22.3N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 27/1200Z 25.0N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 28/1200Z 28.0N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 31.0N 86.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 241746
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...ISAAC TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...CENTER APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 71.4W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* ANDROS ISLAND
* JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS LATER TODAY AND ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST. ISAAC IS NOW
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H..AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON...PASS NEAR OR OVER HAITI
TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE
COAST OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT...AND ISAAC COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH AT LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON A SHIP REPORT IS 997
MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT AND OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH NORTHWESTERN
CUBA AND ANDROS ISLAND BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[LCfromFL]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 242054
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...ISAAC STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...CENTER TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
HAITI TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 71.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ANDROS ISLAND.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS...THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF
JUPITER INLET...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA
BEACH...FLORIDA BAY...AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* ANDROS ISLAND
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* JAMAICA
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH
* FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN HAITI
THIS EVENING...MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA ON SATURDAY...
MOVE NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPROACH THE
FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY
BEFORE LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAKENING AS THE CENTER CROSSES
HAITI AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...AS WELL
AS JAMAICA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED OVER ANDROS ISLAND BY SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT
AND OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS COULD REACH NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
TURKS AND CAICOS...AND EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[LCfromFL]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 242055
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ISAAC
HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WELL-DEFINED
AND MORE CIRCULAR INNER CIRCULATION. THE MAXIMUM 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN 70 KT...THE MAXIMUM RELIABLE SFMR
SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE HAS BEEN 55 KT...AND THE MINIMUM REPORTED
PRESSURE HAS BEEN 994 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. ONE SIGN OF ONGOING ORGANIZATION
ISSUES...HOWEVER...IS THE LACK OF PERSISTENCE OF THE INNER CORE
CONVECTION...WHICH HAS WANED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.

ISAAC HAS MADE ITS EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/14. DURING THE FIRST 48-60 HR...THE
TRACK GUIDANCE MADE AN EASTWARD SHIFT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.
THIS WAS LED BY THE GFS...WHICH CHANGED TO A TRACK INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.
THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE NOW ON THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE...
SHOWING A TRACK ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED EASTWARD BUT STILL LIES A LITTLE TO
THE LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE CONSENSUS
MODELS. THERE REMAINS A SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER 48
HR. THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE SHOWS A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER
LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF
SHOW A NORTHWARD MOTION. THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED EASTWARD CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND AND STRONGEST WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
ARE MOVING INLAND AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THIS AND THE CURRENT LACK
OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FROM 12-48 HR WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF LAND INTERACTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT ISAAC WILL REMAIN OVER LAND LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW GRADUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER...ANY CHANGE IN THE
TRACK THAT ALLOWS IT TO REMAIN OVER WATER FOR A LONGER TIME COULD
ALLOW IT TO BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. AFTER 48 HR...THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR ISAAC TO
STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. CONVERSELY...A LONGER TRACK OVER
LAND MAY DISRUPT ISAAC ENOUGH TO BE UNABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE
AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS MAY HAVE TO BE
UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WATCH IF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS REVISED
UPWARD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 17.2N 71.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 18.7N 73.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 20.7N 76.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 26/0600Z 22.4N 78.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
48H 26/1800Z 23.9N 80.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 27/1800Z 26.5N 84.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 29.5N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 32.0N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN