ATL: ISAAC - (HPC Advisories)

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...ISAAC TEMPORARILY SLOWS DOWN...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN HAITI TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 72.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* ANDROS ISLAND
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* JAMAICA
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH
* FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO RESUME A FASTER FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD
MAKE LANDFALL IN HAITI TONIGHT...MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA ON SATURDAY...MOVE NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT...
AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE
LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAKENING AS THE CENTER CROSSES
HAITI AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...AS WELL
AS JAMAICA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT...ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ARE
EXPECTED OVER ANDROS ISLAND BY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT AND OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH
NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY...AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE
TURKS AND CAICOS...AND EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

...ISAAC GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 72.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND FOR THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM OCEAN REEF ON THE EAST COAST
WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ALL OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

THE CAYMAN ISLANDS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD
* FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* JAMAICA
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO RESUME A FASTER FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD
MAKE LANDFALL IN HAITI TONIGHT...MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA ON SATURDAY...MOVE NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT...
AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL...
FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAKENING AS THE CENTER CROSSES HAITI AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...
370 KM...MAINLY NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HAITI. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT...ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT AND OVER
CENTRAL CUBA BY SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...AND SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...FLORIDA BAY...AND THE SOUTHERNMOST
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY EVENING.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND
IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS...2 TO 4 FT
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

We are waiting for the 11 PM discussion.

[cycloneye]

WTNT44 KNHC 250319
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF ISAAC HAS CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. INFRARED AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT AN EYE IS FORMING...AND THIS IS THE
BASIS FOR INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12 BASED ON RECON AND MICROWAVE
FIXES. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK FORCAST WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT THROUGH 48 HOURS...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. RECENT UPPER-AIR DATA AND NOAA G-IV
AIRCRAFT DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THE TROUGH THAT HAS CREATED THE
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA HAS SHIFTED TO A
POSITION JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE 18Z GFS MODEL...
WHICH SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF ITS 12Z TRACK...CAPTURED THIS FARTHER
EAST POSITION...WHEREAS THE 18Z UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF KEPT THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA VALID AT 00Z THIS EVENING.
BASED ON THE GFS VERIFYING BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AT 00Z THIS
EVENING...THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT.
AFTER 48 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD
ACROSS FLORIDA AND KEEPING ISAAC ON A MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD HEADING
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15
THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THOSE
MODELS AFTER THAT.

WITH THE INNER CORE CONVECTION IMPROVING...THERE IS STILL THE
POSSIBILITY THAT ISAAC COULD REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE
REACHING HAITI TONIGHT. THE INTENSITY FROM 12-24 HOURS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF LAND INTERACTION WITH HAITI AND EASTERN
CUBA. AFTER THAT...THE SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK
IS ENOUGH TO PLACE ISAAC OVER WATER LONGER THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED
IN THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST REQUIRED AN INCREASE IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST. THE EASTWARD TRACK SHIFT AND A LARGER INITIAL
AND FORECAST WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH ARE WHAT NECESSITATED THE
CHANGES IN THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR FLORIDA.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE
AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 17.7N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 19.4N 74.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 21.7N 76.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 23.4N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 24.9N 81.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 27.1N 84.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 30.0N 86.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 32.5N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...ISAAC EMERGING FROM THE COAST OF HAITI...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 73.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING
THE DRY TORTUGAS...THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH
SOUTHWARD...AND FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
ANDROS ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* JAMAICA
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN
CUBA TODAY...AND MOVE NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT AND
APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER ISAAC MOVES OVER EASTERN
CUBA LATER TODAY...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...3 TO 5 FT
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

THE CIRCULATION OF ISAAC HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY INTACT AFTER MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI OVERNIGHT. BEFORE THE
CENTER MOVED INLAND...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTED THAT
THE CYCLONE HAD PEAK WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT. ASSUMING THE CYCLONE
WEAKENED A LITTLE AFTER ENCOUNTERING THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12. AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...ISAAC WILL MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO...AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NHC FORECAST THIS
CYCLE...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE GFS AND THE TVCA
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 96 HOURS. BY DAY 5 THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER ISAAC WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS SHOWN BY THE GFS...UKMET...AND THE GFDL OR
BE LEFT BEHIND AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND HWRF. THE NHC DAY 5 POINT
IS BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS SHOWING A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION.

GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE HAS FARED RATHER WELL AFTER MOVING ACROSS
HAITI...AND THAT THE TRACK FORECAST HAS ONLY MINIMAL INTERACTION
WITH CUBA...THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 12 HOURS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ISAAC
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WITH
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS THROUGH
72 HOURS AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM AFTERWARD.

THE NEW NHC FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF FLORIDA AT THIS TIME.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ISAAC DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE
AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 19.0N 73.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 20.4N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 26/0600Z 22.2N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 26/1800Z 23.8N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 25.0N 81.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 27.7N 84.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 30.5N 86.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0600Z 32.5N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 251149
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...CENTER OF ISAAC MOVING INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 73.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* JAMAICA
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN
CUBA TODAY...AND MOVE NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT AND
APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER ISAAC MOVES OVER EASTERN
CUBA LATER TODAY...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...5 TO 7 FT
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...CENTER OF ISAAC NEAR EASTERN CUBA...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR
PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 74.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SSE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST TO SEBASTIEN INLET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF SEBASTIEN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR JAMAICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIEN INLET SOUTHWARD
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR OVER
EASTERN CUBA TODAY...NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...AND MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND ISAAC IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...5 TO 7 FT
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

11 AM Discussion came very late but here it is.

WTNT44 KNHC 251502
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

ISAAC HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED BY ITS PASSAGE ACROSS HAITI. THE
LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
SHOWED THAT THE CENTER PRESSURE HAD RISEN TO 998 MB...AND THAT THE
STRONGEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 60-70 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THESE
WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN IS DISORGANIZED...WITH LARGE CONVECTIVE BANDS SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA AND LITTLE CONVECTION CURRENTLY NEAR THE CENTER. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ISAAC IS AT THE EASTERN END OF A LARGE AND
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...WHICH IS CREATING A LARGE AREA OF STRONG EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS JOGGED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 315/15. IN
THE SHORT-TERM...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES IS LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AS A UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS EVOLUTION...
COMBINED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF ISAAC...SHOULD STEER THE
CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS INDICATED BY THE TIGHTLY-
CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN MORE
NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A SPREAD IN
POTENTIAL LANDFALL LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE FINAL
LANDFALL POINT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS IN CALLING FOR LANDFALL
IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 72-96 HR.

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
LAND INTERACTION...SOME WESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE CURRENT LACK OF
CONVECTION. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AS THE CENTER MOVES
AWAY FROM LAND...WOULD SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING AFTER 12 HR.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THROUGH 48 HR...THEN CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AFTER LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

THE NEW NHC FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF ADDITIONAL
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ISAAC DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE
AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 20.1N 74.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 21.7N 76.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 23.3N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 24.7N 81.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 25.9N 83.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 28.5N 85.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 31.5N 86.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1200Z 33.0N 86.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Hurricane_Luis]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 251525
TCUAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1130 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

AT 1130 AM EDT...1530 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR HAITI HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...ISAAC HEADING TOWARD THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 77.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA
BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO INDIAN
PASS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO TARPON
SPRINGS...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NORTH OF TARPON
SPRINGS TO INDIAN PASS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ISAAC. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE JUST
NORTH OF THE CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR
OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. ISAAC IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN CUBA...THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN CUBA BY LATE SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA IN THE WARNING AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE MONDAY IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...5 TO 7 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA INCLUDING
TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
* SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
* CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
* THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

WTNT44 KNHC 260244
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA SHOW THAT ISAAC IS MOVING
PARALLEL TO...BUT OFFSHORE OF...THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA.
THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DID NOT FIND ANY STRONGER WINDS
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FLIGHT AND THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED REMAINS 50 KT. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED IN A BAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS AND ISAAC MAY BE ON THE VERGE OF STRENGTHENING.
THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE CYCLONE
AROUND 0600 UTC.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/15 KT. ISAAC SHOULD CONTINUE ON
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO BETWEEN A LARGE LOW/MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING
THIS TIME AND SHOWS A TRACK OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND NEAR OR
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...ISAAC WILL BE NEARING
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND SHOULD MOVE IN A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD HEADING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT LARGE
DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MODELS AFTER
THAT TIME. THE ECMWF RECURVES ISAAC AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WHILE THE GFS SLOWS ISAAC
DOWN AS THE TROUGH BYPASSES THE SYSTEM AND THE MODEL THEN TURNS
THE CYCLONE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS BIFURCATION IS ALSO SEEN IN THE MOST RECENT
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES WITH ABOUT AN EQUAL NUMBER OF MEMBERS
SHOWING RECURVATURE VERSUS A CONTINUE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SINCE THE UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE AND EITHER
OF THESE SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...THE NHC FORECAST IS
LIES BETWEEN THEM. THE UPDATED TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED WESTWARD...BUT IT REMAINS EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS TO RETAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ISAAC MOVES OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND EASTERN GULF. STEADY
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN THE CENTER REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE SHIPS/LGEM
GUIDANCE AND THE MORE AGGRESSIVE HWRF MODEL.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. SINCE LARGE
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN ISAAC WILL MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 22.1N 77.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 23.4N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 24.6N 81.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR FLORIDA KEYS
36H 27/1200Z 25.8N 83.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 27.2N 85.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 29.5N 86.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 31.5N 86.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/0000Z 34.0N 86.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 261154
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...ISAAC EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 80.0W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM E OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND HAS CHANGED
THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS
ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF
* THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...NOT
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NORTH OF
BONITA BEACH TO INDIAN PASS...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/H. A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF CUBA
THIS MORNING...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER. MOLASSES REEF RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 54
MPH...87 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 995
MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS...THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN CUBA BY LATE TODAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
IS DECREASING.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* CRYSTAL RIVER THROUGH THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...4 TO 7 FT
* SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...4 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH TO SOUTH OF CRYSTAL RIVER
INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
* SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
* CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
* THE BAHAMAS...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...ISAAC LASHING SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 80.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ENE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH
SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF IS DISCONTINUED.

THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST
TO JUST EAST OF MORGAN CITY...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...
CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND
GUANTANAMO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF VILLA CLARA
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NORTH OF
BONITA BEACH TO INDIAN PASS...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23. NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 60 MPH...97 KM/H...WAS REPORTED IN
POMPANO BEACH...AND A WIND GUST TO 59 MPH...95 KM/H WAS REPORTED IN
KENDALL.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS...THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN CUBA BY LATE TODAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* CRYSTAL RIVER THROUGH THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...4 TO 7 FT
* SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...4 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH TO SOUTH OF CRYSTAL RIVER
INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
* SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
* CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
* THE BAHAMAS...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

TORNADOES...TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

VISIBLE SATELLITE AND IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
INNER CORE DEVELOPMENT WITH INCREASED CONVECTION NEAR AND OVER THE
CENTER...AND A PARTIAL EYEWALL IS IN EVIDENCE ON RADAR IMAGERY. THE
BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE DISTINCT OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SEMICIRCLES OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 55 KT PENDING OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THAT SHOULD BE IN THE CENTER SHORTLY.
ISAAC CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
PATTERN...AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AS THE CYCLONE
TRAVERSES THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST AND IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE.

THE TRACK FORECAST BEYOND DAY 2 HAS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. DYNAMICAL
MODELS DEPICT THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE NORTH OF THE GULF COAST IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER THERE IS
A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE MORE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS. FOR EXAMPLE...
THE ECMWF FORECAST IS ABOUT 300 N MI EAST OF THE GFS SOLUTION AT DAY
3. SINCE THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MOVED A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE. THIS REQUIRES AN EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD
ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS
GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST.

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK SINCE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE
CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 23.9N 80.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 25.0N 82.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 26.1N 84.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 27.4N 86.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 28.5N 87.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 30.5N 89.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 32.5N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1200Z 34.5N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...CENTER OF ISAAC PASSING JUST SOUTH OF KEY WEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 82.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER
BEACH IS DISCONTINUED.

THE HURRICANE WARNING IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA
BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

THE HURRICANE WATCH IS CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUSIANA TO
DESTIN FLORIDA...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANCLOTE KEY IS
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO DESTIN FLORIDA...INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST
COAST AND FROM ANCLOTE KEY SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.
* FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT...
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY...AND APPROACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SMITH SHOAL LIGHT...NEAR KEY WEST...REPORTED A
WIND GUST TO 70 MPH...113 KM/H...AND VIRGINIA KEY REPORTED A WIND
GUST TO 66 MPH...106 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...6 TO 12 FT
* REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND APALACHEE BAY...4 TO 7 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
* SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
* CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA THOUGH TONIGHT.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR
MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS


TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

ALTHOUGH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WAS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ISAAC THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
FOUND THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM.
FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED WINDS SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT.
THERE IS STILL A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER
THE SYSTEM...AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTENSIFICATION STILL SEEMS LIKELY AS ISAAC
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND POSSIBLY OVER THE HIGHER HEAT
CONTENT OF THE LOOP CURRENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOREAST IS
CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE...AND NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

ISAAC HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS AND
CENTER FIXES YIELD A 6- TO 12-HOUR AVERAGED MOTION OF 295/15. THE
TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
SHOW THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT
AND HEADING FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS AS TO
WHERE ISAAC MIGHT CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE U.K. MET.
OFFICE AND ECMWF MODELS ARE ABOUT 300 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE GFS
AT LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE GFS ENSMEBLE
MEMBERS ARE EAST OF THE GFS CONTROL TRACK. BECAUSE OF THE WIDE
MODEL SPREAD...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREATER THAN USUAL TRACK
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES AND THE FACT THAT
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE
OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 24.2N 82.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 25.1N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 26.3N 85.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 27.7N 87.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 28.9N 88.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 30.7N 89.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1800Z 32.5N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1800Z 34.5N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...CENTER OF ISAAC MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 82.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO DESTIN FLORIDA...INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST
COAST AND FROM TARPON SPRINGS SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.
* FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT...
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY...AND APPROACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER DATA IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...6 TO 12 FT
* REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND APALACHEE BAY...4 TO 7 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
* SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
* CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA THOUGH TONIGHT.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...ISAAC FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 82.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED NORTH OF JUPITER INLET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO DESTIN FLORIDA...INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD ON THE
EAST COAST AND FROM TARPON SPRINGS SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.
* FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA EARLY MONDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT...
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY...AND APPROACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...
335 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
38 MPH WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH HAS RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED AT OPA
LOCKA AIRPORT NEAR MIAMI FLORIDA.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...6 TO 12 FT
* REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND APALACHEE BAY...4 TO 7 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
* SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
* CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE


TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF ISAAC. HOWEVER...THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION IN RADAR DATA FROM KEY WEST
THIS EVENING. IN FACT...THE AIRCRAFT FIXES HAVE BEEN NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SEEN IN BOTH SATELLITE
AND RADAR IMAGERY. AN EARLIER SHIP OBSERVATION AND SFMR
MEASUREMENTS OF 50-55 KT SUPPORTED INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 55
KT ON THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. SINCE THAT TIME...THE AIRCRAFT
HAS NOT FOUND ANY STRONGER WINDS SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS
UNCHANGED. THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...WARM
WATERS...AND A CONDUCIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN FAVOR STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF AN INNER CORE
AND LARGE WIND FIELD COULD CONTINUE TO BE IMPEDING FACTORS FOR
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY MORE STEADY STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.

AIRCRAFT AND RADAR CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT ISAAC JOGGED WESTWARD
AND SLOWED DOWN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LONGER TERM MOTION IS
285/12 KT. THE MODELS SHOW ISAAC TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO
A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS AGREE ON
THIS TURN...THERE IS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE
AFTER 24 HOURS. THE SPREAD OF LANDFALL LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST RANGES FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER WITH THE HWRF...GFDL...AND GFS NEAR THE
WESTERN EDGE AND THE UKMET AND ECMWF ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE. OVERALL...THE CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS BEEN MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE NHC
FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND NEAR THE
HFIP MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BECAUSE OF THE VERY LARGE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREATER THAN USUAL TRACK
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES AND THE FACT THAT
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 24.2N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 25.2N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 26.5N 86.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 27.9N 88.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 28.9N 89.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 30.6N 90.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/0000Z 33.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0000Z 36.0N 91.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
100 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING AFFECTING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE THREAT EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 85.9W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO DESTIN FLORIDA...INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA TO THE AUCILLA RIVER
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF SABINE PASS TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND APPROACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM A
NEARBY NOAA BUOY IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...6 TO 12 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST INCLUDING APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...WHERE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE FLORIDA COASTLINE AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AND BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
400 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES ISAAC GETTING STRONGER...
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE THREAT EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 86.2W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER TO DESTIN HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE AUCILLA RIVER
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF SABINE PASS TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL MOVE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM THE
AIRCRAFT AND NEARBY NOAA BUOYS IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...6 TO 12 FT
* ALABAMA...6 TO 9 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST INCLUDING APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED STORM MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES..ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE EXTREME WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE FLORIDA COASTLINE AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AND BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
400 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED INTENSIFICATION PROCESS APPEARS TO HAVE FINALLY
STARTED BASED ON REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AND FROM NEARBY NOAA BUOY 42003. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
DECREASED BY AT LEAST 7 MB SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE HIGHEST
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OBSERVED HAVE BEEN 74 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT AND THE HIGHEST BIAS-ADJUSTED SFMR WINDS ARE NEAR 58 KT.
THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 60 KT.

ISAAC WOBBLED WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A REPRESENTATIVE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10. THE LATEST 12Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL AREAS OVER THE NEXT
36-48 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS...HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
DIVERGENT ON THE HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE GFS
AND ECMWF...OUR MOST RELIABLE MODELS... NOW HAVE VERY SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS THROUGH DAY 5...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
BETWEEN THOSE TWO MODELS.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE ISAAC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST CLOUD
PATTERN OVER THE CENTER ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING EYE IN RECON DATA.
SATELLITE DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB. RECON WIND DATA INDICATE THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS ALSO
PULLED INWARD TO ABOUT 30 N MI. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS
BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
STILL LURKS JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CDO FEATURE...
WHICH COULD BE ENTRAINED INTO THE INNER CORE AT ANY TIME AND
DISRUPT THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF DRY
AIR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES ONLY MODEST DEVELOPMENT FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS DUE TO THE VERY WARM WATERS THE
CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER AND THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW REGIME THAT ISAAC IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 24 HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

BECAUSE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...IT IS
IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. THE SLOW FORWARD
SPED OF AROUND 5 KT AFTER LANDFALL WILL RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOOD SITUATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 26.4N 86.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 27.4N 87.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 28.6N 89.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 29.5N 90.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 29/1800Z 30.3N 90.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1800Z 35.9N 92.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1800Z 38.7N 89.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
700 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012

...ISAAC EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE SOON...SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE
AND FLOOD THREAT FROM RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 86.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE AUCILLA RIVER
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF SABINE PASS TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH
A SLIGHT DECREASE IS FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL MOVE OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM AIR
FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 981 MB...28.97
INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...6 TO 12 FT
* ALABAMA...6 TO 9 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST INCLUDING APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED STORM MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE EXTREME WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE FLORIDA COASTLINE AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AND BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1000 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012

...ISAAC TAKING AIM ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...SIGNIFICANT STORM
SURGE AND FRESHWATER FLOOD THREAT EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 87.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE AUCILLA RIVER
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF SABINE PASS TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL
MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE COAST
OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...6 TO 12 FT
* ALABAMA...6 TO 9 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST INCLUDING APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 18
INCHES...IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE FLORIDA COASTLINE AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AND BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
EARLY TUESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE


TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1000 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ISAAC HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG
BAND OF CONVECTION...PERHAPS THE BEGINNING OF AN EYEWALL...WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE BAND WAS OPEN TO
THE NORTHWEST AND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS DISPLACED A LITTLE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE ROTATION SEEN IN SATELLITE PICTURES. THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS NOT FALLEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND THE NOAA AND AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT HAVE NOT REPORTED
WINDS ANY HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS MEASURED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...ISAAC REMAINS A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.
ISAAC CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTLY MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE LIKELY DUE TO SOME DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. OTHERWISE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL. ISAAC IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT AND NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.

ISAAC HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING
THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISAAC SHOULD MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST WHERE A BREAK IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED. AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
BYPASSES ISAAC IN A DAY OR SO...SOME RIDGING BUILDS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ISAAC TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES INLAND. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS IT
MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SLIDES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS. THE NEW
NHC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

ISAAC IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INLAND OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 27.1N 87.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 28.0N 88.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 29.1N 89.2W 80 KT 90 MPH...ON THE COAST
36H 29/1200Z 29.9N 90.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0000Z 30.7N 90.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/0000Z 33.3N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/0000Z 37.5N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z 40.5N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE