ATL: KIRK - Advisories

[Extratropical94]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
500 PM AST TUE AUG 28 2012

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...NO
THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 43.9W
ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ABOUT 1400 MI...2250 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/H...AND A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
500 PM AST TUE AUG 28 2012

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND THE SYSTEM IS NOW
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER WAS EXPOSED EARLIER
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO ABOUT 15 KT OF
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER...THE CENTER HAS NOW REFORMED
CLOSER TO THE COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE
FROM SAB.

RGB AIRMASS IMAGERY FROM MET-9 SHOWS AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE WEST
OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE SHEAR SHOULD RESULT
IN LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...IF THE DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTS...THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
SOON. OVERALL THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MODERATE
WESTERLY SHEAR EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS AN UPPER-LOW MOVES WESTWARD
AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN
ABOUT THREE DAYS THE SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD
OF A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF NORTH AMERICA. THE
NHC FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND ITS POSSIBLE THE CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE AT SOME
POINT...AS SHOWN BY THE GFS MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/09...AS THE
CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. A WESTWARD
OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
THE CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED BY A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THE CYCLONE WILL REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE BY 72
HOURS AND A NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS EXPECTED AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS
AND IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AFTER THAT TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 23.8N 43.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 24.1N 45.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 24.3N 47.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 24.6N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 25.3N 51.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 27.5N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 32.5N 55.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 40.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 290236
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIRK ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 28 2012

...DEPRESSION UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 45.0W
ABOUT 1230 MI...1980 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1440 MI...2315 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.0 WEST. KIRK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

WTNT41 KNHC 290238
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 28 2012

A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST...WITH A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -70C...HAS PERSISTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AN ASCAT PASS FROM 2338 UTC SHOWED RELIABLE WIND VECTORS NEAR 40 KT
OR PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 40 KT...AND THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM KIRK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY. THE SHIPS
MODEL SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR REMAINING GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION...GOES-R IMAGERY SHOWS
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WEST OF THE CYCLONE. WHILE THESE
CONDITIONS SEEM UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...THE
SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SUGGEST THAT KIRK COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN
A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY
UPWARD BUT IS STILL BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

RECENT MICROWAVE DATA HAS HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER OF KIRK...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A MORE CONFIDENT 280/10. A CONTINUED
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT TIME...A GRADUAL
TURN TO TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST WITH A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM REACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BECOMES INFLUENCED BY AN APPROACHING LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH. THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM AND...AS
A RESULT...HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE EAST WITH RECURVATURE OCCURRING
AROUND 50W. THE NEW OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CONSIDERS THE GFS AN
OUTLIER AT THIS TIME AND REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 23.9N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 24.2N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 24.5N 48.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 25.0N 50.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 26.0N 52.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 29.0N 55.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 34.8N 52.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 42.3N 44.9W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

WTNT41 KNHC 292031
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
500 PM AST WED AUG 29 2012

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED OVER THE CENTER OF KIRK THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO WARM AGAIN
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT
BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. IN THE
SHORT TERM...MODERATE SHEAR VALUES AND SOME DRY AIR IN THE
ENVIRONMENT WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AS KIRK MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...
AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS KIRK BECOMING A HURRICANE BY 72
HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY DAY 4 AS THE SHEAR INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY AND KIRK MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS BEFORE THE CYCLONE
IS ABSORBED BY DAY 5. THROUGH THE PERIOD THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE VARIOUS INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.

THE CENTER NOW APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION AND
IS ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 300/09. OVERALL THE
TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS KIRK WILL MOVE
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD AS
THE CYCLONE RECURVES AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TOWARD A SHARPER RECURVATURE THIS
CYCLE WITH A FASTER FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE PERIOD. FOR
EXAMPLE...THE ECMWF...WHICH WAS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE EARLIER NOW LIES CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE BUT
IS EAST OF THE CONSENSUS. OVERALL THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
RIGHTWARD THIS CYCLE...AND THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE
ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...RESULTS IN A
RIGHTWARD SHIFT OF ABOUT A DEGREE IN THE NHC TRACK IN THE FIRST 36
HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE NHC FORECAST IS BLENDED BACK TOWARD
THE OLD TRACK...BUT IS FASTER. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD THE NHC TRACK
IS NEAR THE TVCA CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 25.3N 47.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 26.1N 48.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 27.7N 50.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 29.6N 51.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 31.9N 51.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 38.0N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 45.5N 37.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 03/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIRK ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 PM AST WED AUG 29 2012

...KIRK STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 48.3W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1495 MI...2410 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3 WEST. KIRK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND KIRK IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

WTNT41 KNHC 301459
TCDAT1

HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 AM AST THU AUG 30 2012

KIRK HAS DEVELOPED A 10-NMI DIAMETER EYE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SINCE THE 12Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55-60
KT WERE RECEIVED FROM TAFB AND SAB. AS A RESULT...KIRK HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS ON THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/10 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. KIRK IS ON
TRACK AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THEREFORE...THE NEW FORECAST IS JUST
AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...WHICH LIES ON TOP OF
THE NEARLY IDENTICAL TV15 AND TVCA CONSENSUS MODELS.

KIRK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SSTS
OF MORE THAN 26C FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...SINCE
KIRK IS A SMALL SYSTEM...IT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO INTERMITTENT
INTRUSIONS OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR THAT CAN BRIEFLY INTERRUPT THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE GRADUAL
WEAKENING. BY 96 HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR AND SSTS
LESS THAN 20C SHOULD RESULT IN KIRK BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. MERGER WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY 120 HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODEL
IV15.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 27.2N 49.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 28.4N 50.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 30.4N 50.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 32.9N 49.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 35.8N 47.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 42.2N 40.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 49.2N 29.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

WTNT41 KNHC 302056
TCDAT1

HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
500 PM AST THU AUG 30 2012

KIRK HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS. THE
HURRICANE HAS MAINTAINED A 10-NMI DIAMETER EYE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND THE 18Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE A CONSENSUS
T4.5/77 KT KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. GIVEN THAT THE CDO FEATURE HAS
EXPANDED AND TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/11 KT. THERE REMAINS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING.
KIRK CONTINUES ON TRACK AND THE 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED ABOUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. AS A RESULT...THE NEW
FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...
WHICH LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE TV15 AND TVCA CONSENSUS MODELS.

KIRK APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO OVERCOME ANY DRY AIR ISSUES...SO
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH KIRK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A RELATIVELY COMPACT
CYCLONE...WHICH MAKES IT VULNERABLE TO SLIGHT INCREASES IN VERTICAL
SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF NEARBY DRY AIR...THE CYCLONE COULD STILL
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS IN 36-48 HOURS. BY
96 HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND SSTS
LESS THAN 20C SHOULD RESULT IN KIRK BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. MERGER WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY 120 HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS
AND LGEM MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 28.2N 50.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 29.5N 50.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 31.8N 50.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 34.4N 49.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 37.5N 46.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 44.5N 37.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 51.5N 25.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 PM AST THU AUG 30 2012

KIRK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN...WITH A
SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST COMPRISED OF COLD CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH THE EARLIER RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE
SEEMS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF...THE EYE HAS WARMED FURTHER AND BECOME
BETTER DEFINED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE A CONSENSUS 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE LATEST ADT VALUES
HAVE BEEN RUNNING CLOSER TO T5.0. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
RAISED TO 85 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THESE DATA SOURCES.
KIRK HAS ANOTHER DAY OR SO TRAVERSING WARM WATERS IN A RELATIVELY
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE ALSO HAS A WELL-ESTABLISHED
OUTFLOW SINK TO THE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO APPROACH A JET TO THE
NORTHWEST...WHICH COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...
SUGGESTS A PEAK INTENSITY OCCURRING AROUND OR JUST AFTER THE POINT
OF RECURVATURE. A SHARP INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A TRACK OVER RAPIDLY
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEYOND 48 HOURS SHOULD RESULT
IN STEADY OR EVEN RAPID WEAKENING. A QUICK-MOVING FRONTAL ZONE
SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERTAKE KIRK IN 2-3 DAYS...RESULTING IN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION JUST AROUND 72 HOURS AND ABSORPTION IN 96
HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY
AIDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE HAS VEERED A HAIR TO THE RIGHT AND IS
335/10. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLEAR-CUT. KIRK HAS REACHED THE
WESTERN END OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SHOULD UNDERGO
RECURVATURE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME EMBEDDED IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...AND ACCELERATE AT WARP
SPEED WITH THE APPROACH OF A POTENT MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES IN 36-48 HOURS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...GIVEN THE EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 29.0N 50.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 30.5N 50.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 33.0N 50.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 35.8N 47.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 38.7N 44.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 46.2N 34.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/0000Z 52.0N 20.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
500 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2012

KIRK IS A SMALL-SIZE HURRICANE WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A
RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS WERE 5.0 AT 0600 UTC ON THE DVORAK SCALE GIVING AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS. SINCE THAT TIME...THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS IMPROVED...AND THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED.
THIS MEANS THAT THE WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER. HOWEVER...I
WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR THE PERSISTENCE OF THESE HIGHER T-NUMBERS
BEFORE ADJUSTING THE INTENSITY UPWARD...IF NECESSARY. ALTHOUGH THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW...KIRK ONLY HAS A 24-HOUR WINDOW TO
STRENGTHEN FURTHER BEFORE IT REACHES SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER
THAN 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE HURRICANE SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AND LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. KIRK IS FORECAST TO BECOME
ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 4 DAYS OR EARLIER.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT
10 KNOTS...AND SOON IT SHOULD RECURVE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
KIRK SHOULD THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS INDICATED BY
MOST OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE. SINCE THE STEERING
FLOW AROUND KIRK IS WELL ESTABLISHED...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 30.1N 50.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 31.7N 50.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 34.5N 49.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 37.5N 46.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 41.0N 42.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 50.5N 29.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

TCDAT1

HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2012

A 1202 UTC SSMIS PASS SHOWED THAT THE SMALL EYE OF KIRK IS STILL
THERE...EVEN THOUGH IT IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT BASED ON DVORAK
CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. WHILE THE GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST NO LONGER SHOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
KIRK COULD STRENGTHEN A BIT BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER
WATERS AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD BUT ONLY SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING AND KEEPS KIRK AS A
HURRICANE THROUGH 48 HOURS...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST IVCN
CONSENSUS AID AND THE LGEM. KIRK SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72
HOURS AND BE ABSORBED BY A FRONT BY 96 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
OCCUR A BIT SOONER.

KIRK IS NOW MOVING A TAD EAST OF NORTH WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 005/11. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE RECURVING AS IT
MOVES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THEN
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT A
BIT SLOWER...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 31.2N 50.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 33.1N 50.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 35.7N 47.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 38.9N 44.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 43.0N 39.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 53.0N 23.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
500 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2012

KIRK HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED LOOKING IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW DISPLACED TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER. THIS MAY BE DUE TO SOME UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IMPINGING ON KIRK FROM A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED TO
THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. A BLEND OF DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND
SAB RESULTS IN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT
APPEARS THAT KIRK HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY SLOW WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
AFTER THAT TIME THE WEAKENING SHOULD BE A LITTLE FASTER BEFORE KIRK
IS ABSORBED BY A FRONT IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. KIRK WILL LIKELY BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BETWEEN THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST TIMES...BUT THAT
IS NOT SHOWN EXPLICITLY HERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11...AS KIRK IS NOW ROUNDING THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING KIRK RECURVING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW IN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ONLY AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 32.2N 50.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 34.3N 49.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 37.3N 46.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 41.2N 42.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 46.0N 36.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2012

THE APPEARANCE OF KIRK ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES HAS BECOME A
LITTLE MORE RAGGED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE
IMAGES...HOWEVER...INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF THE COMPACT
HURRICANE IS WELL ORGANIZED WITH A PARTIAL EYEWALL STILL INTACT. AN
AVERAGE OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS IS THE BASIS FOR LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 70 KT.
KIRK IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO BUT BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
LOW...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO OCCUR BY
DAY 2...WHEN KIRK IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW 20C AND IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. NEARLY ALL OF THE
MODELS SHOW KIRK BECOMING ABSORBED BY A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OR
DISSIPATING WITHIN A FEW DAYS.

KIRK IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A LITTLE FASTER
PACE...015/14...AS IT IS BECOMING MORE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO THE
EAST OF A TROUGH. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST UNTIL KIRK DISSIPATES OR BECOMES ABSORBED.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND VERY NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 33.9N 49.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 36.1N 47.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 39.4N 44.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 43.7N 39.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 48.1N 33.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIRK ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2012

...KIRK WEAKENS AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.4N 46.5W
ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.5 WEST. KIRK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS KIRK BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL ON SUNDAY. KIRK IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONT ON
MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF KIRK IS BECOMING
ELONGATED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WHILE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CLODEST
CLOUD TOPS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
DECREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST
DVORAK CI-NUMBER FROM SAB. INCREASING SHEAR AND RAPIDLY COOLING
SSTS ALONG THE TRACK IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
FURTHER WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 36
HOURS. BY 48 HOURS...KIRK IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY AN
APPROACHING FRONT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/22...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.
THE NEW NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO
THE INITIAL POSITION. OTHERWISE...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST REASONING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT AN
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED.

THE INITIAL 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1238
UTC ASCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 37.4N 46.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 40.0N 43.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 44.3N 39.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 49.5N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 03/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Extratropical94]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIRK ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
500 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2012

...KIRK MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 44.3W
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.3 WEST. KIRK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND KIRK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON SUNDAY AND
BE ABSORBED BY A FRONT BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
500 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KIRK CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE. CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST CONTINUES
TO ELONGATE NORTHEASTWARD AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AFFECT
THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS AND THE DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBER FROM TAFB.
AS KIRK MOVES OVER COOL WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES MARKEDLY...
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
KIRK SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A FRONT BY 36 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/25...AS KIRK CONTINUES TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE NEW
NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A
LITTLE FASTER BY 24 HOURS...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 39.5N 44.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 42.4N 41.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 47.6N 34.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 03/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
500 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

KIRK HAS BEEN ACCELERATING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES ITS TREK ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 045/28 KT. CONTINUED ACCELERATION TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS NOW THAT THE CYCLONE
IS CAUGHT UP IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES REGION. SINCE KIRK REMAINS ON TRACK...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE TV15 AND TVCA CONSENSUS MODELS.

A SMALL FLARE UP OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER OF
KIRK DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WHICH HAS HELPED KIRK TO CLING ON TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY BE A
SHORT-LIVED RESPITE...AND WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME LATER TODAY AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SUB-20C SSTS IN 6-12 HOURS. DEGENERATION
INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY 12
HOURS...AND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM
BY 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FORECASTS
CLOSELY FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 43.5N 39.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 47.4N 34.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 03/0600Z 53.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

KIRK IS NOT EXPECTED TO LIVE LONG AND PROSPER. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES AND A 1214 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS
A CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT IT IS BECOMING ELONGATED. MAXIMUM
RELIABLE WINDS IN THE ASCAT PASS WERE AROUND 45 KT SO THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. KIRK WILL LIKELY BECOME
POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY OR DISSIPATE JUST BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 200 N MI TO ITS WEST.

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT KIRK HAS
BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING A VERY FAST 035/32. AN EVEN
FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THE FRONT TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 46.2N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 51.1N 30.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Extratropical94]

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIRK ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

...KIRK BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...49.7N 32.6W
ABOUT 965 MI...1550 KM ENE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 47 MPH...76 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIRK
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 49.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.6 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS RACING NORTHEASTWARD AT 47 MPH...76 KM/H.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONT
TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON KIRK. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UNITED KINGDOM
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KIRK HAS BECOME DISPLACED ABOUT 100
N MI TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER DUE TO OVER 30
KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME COLD CORE...OR NO LONGER
TROPICAL IN NATURE...ACCORDING TO THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY
CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS. THEREFORE...KIRK IS NOW CONSIDERED A POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS RACING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 41 KT. A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IMPINGING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR ON
MONDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 49.7N 32.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 03/0600Z 55.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 03/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

Kirk is now Post-Tropical.


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
2100 UTC SUN SEP 02 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.7N 32.6W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 41 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 250SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.7N 32.6W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 48.1N 34.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 55.0N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 240SE 220SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 49.7N 32.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON KIRK. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UNITED KINGDOM METEOROLOGICAL
OFFICE UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI