ATL: LESLIE - Models

[rainstorm]

The gfs shows a recurve

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

however, it also shows a positive NAO and a building high in the nw atlantic. this may still be a threat.

[ROCK]

NOGAPS says recurve as well....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[KWT]

Some GFS ensembles are suggesting a possible risk to the NE Caribbean. I also can't get past the fact that the GFS was orginally recurving Issac around 50W...

[cycloneye]

The first Bams run is not out yet. Let's see how the tracks and intensity will be when it comes out.

[Patrick99]

Think the models are assuming a stronger system? Looks like it's just going to churn along in the low level flow for a few days.

[blp]

Given the setup this year i am not yet convinced this is a recurve. Take a look below at what the models were showing with future Issac early on. Looks similar as the models tried to ramp this up in a strong system and we all know that it stayed weak.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113367&start=0

[USTropics]

BAM 0600z model runs hinting recurve:

[KWT]

Well models are pretty keen to recurve this, but I'm not sure they are getting a good grasp of this system and the models appear to start this one too far north.

Kirk could well make things interesting, especially if it does become stronger.

[cycloneye]

BAM 0600z model runs hinting recurve:

The first run of SHIP on intensity has almost a cat 3.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 290825
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0825 UTC WED AUG 29 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982012) 20120829 0600 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120829  0600   120829  1800   120830  0600   120830  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.9N  32.7W   12.7N  34.5W   14.3N  36.5W   16.1N  39.7W
BAMD    11.9N  32.7W   12.3N  35.3W   12.9N  37.8W   13.8N  40.1W
BAMM    11.9N  32.7W   12.8N  34.9W   13.9N  37.4W   15.3N  40.2W
LBAR    11.9N  32.7W   12.3N  36.6W   13.1N  40.6W   14.1N  44.7W
SHIP        25KTS          34KTS          44KTS          58KTS
DSHP        25KTS          34KTS          44KTS          58KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120831  0600   120901  0600   120902  0600   120903  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.7N  44.1W   19.0N  53.0W   17.8N  58.1W   18.7N  58.8W
BAMD    14.8N  42.4W   17.0N  46.4W   19.6N  49.4W   24.1N  51.4W
BAMM    16.6N  43.5W   18.8N  50.3W   20.2N  55.9W   20.9N  58.8W
LBAR    15.1N  48.6W   16.2N  54.5W   17.7N  55.0W   21.7N  57.5W
SHIP        69KTS          89KTS          97KTS          98KTS
DSHP        69KTS          89KTS          97KTS          98KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.9N LONCUR =  32.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  23KT
LATM12 =  11.9N LONM12 =  28.0W DIRM12 = 271DEG SPDM12 =  24KT
LATM24 =  11.9N LONM24 =  23.3W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =  100NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[KWT]

Thats a very agressive run from the SHIPS cycloneye!

We will have to see where this eventually ends up, most models are real keen on a recurve but we've seen this before with Issac...

[rainstorm]

maybe this will be the only major of the year. recurve seems likley but a ridge is building in the nw atlantic.

[KWT]

I think rainstorm its going to depend on how qiuckly this one gets going, if its ramping up before say 40W, I can only see a recurve as a nice big upper trough is starting to dig down by say 96-120hrs, assisted by both Kirk AND Issac's remains, if it stays weak though then it may just bypass any weakness and wait for the next one to lift up throug the Caribbean.

Either way I do think this will become the next decent system.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I don't buy the GFS solution right now one on one key point. It leaves behind a portion of Kirk as it connects with the jet. I think it will stay as one low and exit N and E. It looks like Kirk is a little too slow getting out. Also the Bams (M and S) have a curiuous bend NW at the very end of thier runs after the hard right turns.

I think the ridge will be stronger than that and the recurve, if it actually happens will be much further west.

[rainstorm]

makes sense

[ROCK]

SHIPS cat 3..wow...seems to me they also blew up Isaac but it never happened. Maybe this will be the one....but further west for now until developes....

[BatzVI]

Really wish we could get some pro met input for 98L

[Wthrman13]

Way too early to say if there will be a recurve yet, especially since the recurve portrayed in the models is in the 5+ day timeframe, where we have very little skill. I haven't looked at the actual statistics for storms forming in the general area of 98L for this time of year, but I would bet that they show a greater likelihood of recurvature over open ocean than not.

In any case, most of the numerical guidance has been aggressive in developing this system, so I say it has a good chance of becoming a named storm. Hopefully it will be a nice major that bothers nobody but the fishes!

[MJS1]

Hopefully it will be a nice major that bothers nobody but the fishes!

You're killing my epinephrine,Wtheman13...LOL..I've seen too many old "Emergency!" TV shows.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well if what systems have done so far crossing the atlantic are any indication this probably wont develop until it gets close to caribbean if at all

[ROCK]

Well if what systems have done so far crossing the atlantic are any indication this probably wont develop until it gets close to caribbean if at all

agree...Kirk needs to get out of the way and let that weakness fill for this to have a chance.....if it developes sooner then it would just follow Kirk out....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=


already has an anticyclone over it...

lots of low level convergence...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=