ATL: LESLIE - Models

[rainstorm]

looks like it came quite a bit west.

[bonjourno]

Let's hope this whole east coast thing is just a quirky 12z trend...

[cycloneye]

Yikes 2001,look at the Euro at 240 hours.

[Riptide]

It's a very real trend with major implications. All models are building a high pressure region northeast of Leslie. The main player is the strength of the upper-level trough in the Ohio Valley. Canada will likely be affected since Leslie is already too far west.

[Extratropical94]

What do you guys think about a Kyle '08 solution, both track and intensity wise?
I mean, even if it does strengthen, i think it probably won't become the major bomb that the Euro is currently forecasting.

[rainstorm]

if anything, the pattern shown on the euro would imply a further west track

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Yikes 2001,look at the Euro at 240 hours.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

Yeah that would be pretty bad for the Maritimes though I, being on the far western edge, would far far better than say Nova Scotia, including the largest city in the region Halifax, would.

[meriland23]

Why is this shifting west now? Euro and cmc have it darn near NE states? Anyone find a NE hit plausable or does this seem ..fishy

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Why is this shifting west now? Euro and cmc have it darn near NE states? Anyone find a NE hit plausable or does this seem ..fishy

I don't know...but if its plausible people up here are going to be scrambling.

[Riptide]

The 0z GFS came 300 miles west of the 12z GFS, loving the consistency.

[meriland23]

The 0z GFS came 300 miles west of the 12z GFS, loving the consistency.

Yup, saw that too.. NS hit darn near on this run. I am terrified of what the euro will show now. Euro loves its west trends. Scary thing is, Euro was right on Isaac way far out, we assumed it was too west at the time..

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Why is no one posting the model runs here?

[meriland23]

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[Riptide]

Why is no one posting the model runs here?

0z GFS loop
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Thank you Meri and Rip. I don't know where to go and look for the runs elsewhere, so I can only rely on them being posted here.

[somethingfunny]

Thank you Meri and Rip. I don't know where to go and look for the runs elsewhere, so I can only rely on them being posted here.

I use this website. http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/models.html

The latest (0z) GFS is pretty far east with Leslie, clipping Newfoundland on its' way towards the Arctic Circle.

[GCANE]

Has the cutoff low over the OH valley been forecast on previous model runs?

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

Wasn't paying a lot of attention, but I thought it was a trough before.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Has the cutoff low over the OH valley been forecast on previous model runs?

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

Wasn't paying a lot of attention, but I thought it was a trough before.

interesting local disco concerning that:

000
FXUS61 KCAR 041010
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
610 AM EDT TUE SEP 4 2012.....


.......LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE H5 TROUGH SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
MAINE ON FRIDAY. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT ON THE DEPTH AND POSITIONING OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE
TRAJECTORY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE LESLIE AND ITS PROXIMITY TO
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND CANADIAN MARITIMES BY DAY 7. REGARDLESS
OF THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF LESLIE...HEAVY SURF IS A DEFINITE FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED RISKS TO
SAFETY FOR CITIZENS AND MARITIME PROPERTY......

[GCANE]

Has the cutoff low over the OH valley been forecast on previous model runs?

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

Wasn't paying a lot of attention, but I thought it was a trough before.

interesting local disco concerning that:

000
FXUS61 KCAR 041010
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
610 AM EDT TUE SEP 4 2012.....


.......LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE H5 TROUGH SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
MAINE ON FRIDAY. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT ON THE DEPTH AND POSITIONING OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE
TRAJECTORY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE LESLIE AND ITS PROXIMITY TO
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND CANADIAN MARITIMES BY DAY 7. REGARDLESS
OF THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF LESLIE...HEAVY SURF IS A DEFINITE FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED RISKS TO
SAFETY FOR CITIZENS AND MARITIME PROPERTY......

Thanks - it really caught my eye this morning since it looked close enough for the Fuji effect to kick in.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Some of the current model runs, such as the GFS & ECMWF, seem to be hinting at some type of interchange (perhaps even a trough phasing/merging) between Leslie and a cutoff low that forms along the coast. Looks like some interesting days ahead.

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