EPAC:INVEST 98E

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like we got another invest on our hands per the above graph.

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 1 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ILEANA...LOCATED ABOUT 555 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE

[hurricanes1234]

Looks pretty good right now.

[somethingfunny]

98E (60%) is the swirl to the southwest. 99E just popped up and check it out near the coast.

[hurricanes1234]

First time I've ever seen an invest form so close to the main one.

[Yellow Evan]

Both seem to be on there were to becoming TC's IMO.

[hurricanes1234]

98E may end up absorbing 99E, or vice-versa. I will be very surprised if they both form, because that will be within the 1,500 mile limit needed for two tropical cyclones to form/intensify. If they both form at the current distance from each other, they will inevitably undergo the Fujiwhara Effect, when last have we seen this? I've never seen it in my year and three months of tracking tropical cyclones.

[Yellow Evan]

98E may end up absorbing 99E, or vice-versa. I will be very surprised if they both form, because that will be within the 1,500 mile limit needed for two tropical cyclones to form/intensify. If they both form at the current distance from each other, they will inevitably undergo the Fujiwhara Effect, when last have we seen this? I've never seen it in my year and three months of tracking tropical cyclones.

Lidia and Max in 2005. It's pretty much impossible for for 99E to absorb 98E because of size. I won't be surprised to see 99E form as it is very close to TD status though. 98E is one of those systems that develop will in a day or two. but not atm.

[Yellow Evan]

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[somethingfunny]

I don't even know what's what on this loop, if it's 98E or 99E, but it looks like something nice is starting to develop now.

[somethingfunny]

And the new TWO reflects this.

(98E)SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

(99E) A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT MERGES WITH THE LARGER
LOW TO ITS SOUTH.

What a strange cyclogenesis; it looks like 99E's vorticity got sucked into 99E's broader circulation and is providing the focus for the new blowup of convection... but it's definitely all within 98E's circulation.

[Extratropical94]

Up to 90%

1. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER
TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.

[hurricanes1234]

Love that phrase "a tropical depression appears to be forming".

[brunota2003]

I think 98E may have gotten the nod...it disappeared off the chart at the top.

[Yellow Evan]

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. IN ADDITION...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.

[Yellow Evan]

Any re-number yet?

[Kingarabian]

Don't see anything...

[Extratropical94]

Ha!
They renumbered 99E:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep992012_ep102012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209021940
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[hurricanes1234]

Why is it 99E? Wasn't the 90% blob 98E?

[Yellow Evan]

The two systems merged it appears.