WPAC: INVEST 93W

[Meow]

West of Wake Island.

[mrbagyo]

developing fast,,, but not a major threat to any landmass

[euro6208]

LOW chance to develop according to jtwc...

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.6N 162.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. BROKEN DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN LOCATED ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS BEEN
KEEPING THE LLCC AND CONVECTION DISLOCATED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE CENTRAL PRESSURES NEAR 1007 MB. AN EARLIER 021002Z ASCAT
PASS SUPPORTS THE EIR LOOP, WITH LIGHTER 10 TO 15 KNOT CENTRAL WINDS
AND STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON
THE HIGH LEVELS OF VWS, LACK OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION, AND THE
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ELONGATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[mrbagyo]

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.6N
162.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 161.2E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) LOCATED WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A
030119Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS BROKEN DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 022233Z ASCAT PASS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A 10-15 KNOT LLCC WITH 20-25 KNOT GRADIENT
INDUCED WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH A
TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL AND THE MOST RECENT
021700Z AMSU CROSS-SECTION SHOWS ONLY COLD-CORE CHARACTERISTICS.
STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ARE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS RANGING FROM 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO
THE COLD-CORE CHARACTERISTICS AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.9N
161.2E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[mrbagyo]

its gone!!!, just like that.
I wanna to ask, is TUTT cell bad or good for tropical cyclones?

[euro6208]

its gone!!!, just like that.
I wanna to ask, is TUTT cell bad or good for tropical cyclones?

they can be good for developing tropical cyclones as they usually improve outflow...