ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[N2Storms]

[quote="ROCK"]exposed....decapitated..naked... wont be much left if it doesnt fire off some more convection soon.....[/quote]



Totally agree. IMO 90L will max out as a Tropical Depression. Too much working against it...

[bonjourno]

I'm not entirely sure. I think it *may* make it to just barely TS strength, but that's about it.

[otowntiger]

exposed....decapitated..naked... wont be much left if it doesnt fire off some more convection soon.....

Yes, convection is further separating from the LLC. No upgrade today. Shear just too strong. That's good. Don't need any more Gulf action this year.

Agreed. We're doing pretty good here in Central FL as far as rain goes too. Although we're still running a deficit and lakes ponds and wetlands are still low we've had our normal rain for he summer and we are certainly not in danger of rampant wild fires of the last couple seasons.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Best Case Scenario for 90L.
To be clear, not for people:

[Anthysteg00]

This cold front sure doesn't look very impressive either....appears zonal even. I'm not so convinced this will be as strong a front as predicted ...

[SouthFloridawx]

It's dead Jim?

[Sanibel]

Looks blown-off and shot.

[rainstorm]

JB isnt even tweeting about it anymore

[otowntiger]

JB isnt even tweeting about it anymore

Welp, that's it then. If JB isn't even tweeting about it then it's dead for sure.

[MGC]

Looked much better this morning....looks rather naked right now....but, things can change quickly in the tropics...MGC

[HurricaneAndrew92]

A good graphic showing whats happening now. Red circle is center.

[tailgater]

Looks like a system lacking moisture more than a sheared system, pretty dry air all along the north central gulf coast, check the pw's mostly below 2.0 and very dry air aloft, which has been a problem for most of the Atlantic tropics this year.(thankfully)

[HurricaneAndrew92]

It's dead...

[tolakram]

A good graphic showing whats happening now. Red circle is center.

http://img696.imageshack.us/img696/1213/90ld.jpg

Actually the shear is coming from the N/NE blowing to the S/SW. I suspect the graphic is out of date, but basically the anti-cyclone appears to be the the NW of the system.



Live Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[rainstorm]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Gulf system not getting convection. NO affection for lack of convection if you r indevelopment contention.

[ROCK]

exposed....decapitated..naked... wont be much left if it doesnt fire off some more convection soon.....

Yes, convection is further separating from the LLC. No upgrade today. Shear just too strong. That's good. Don't need any more Gulf action this year.

oh the GOM has one more in her for this year....give it a week...

[ROCK]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

best naked swirl I have seen all year....if another LLC doesnt drill down under whats left of the MLC, 90L is dead, Jim...

[smw1981]

I don't know that I would call it dead yet, but it definitely appears to be dying. By tomorrow we should be able to call it dead..

[tropicwatch]

The circulation is quite evident in satellite loops. Very impressive but no support.

[cycloneye]

Down to 30%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
LESLIE...LOCATED ABOUT 430 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND
ON HURRICANE MICHAEL...LOCATED ABOUT 945 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES.

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 60 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND
DRY AIR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BECOME
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE FAVORABLE...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LOW
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG