ATL: NADINE - Models

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ATL: NADINE - Models

#1 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Sep 08, 2012 7:07 am

First tropical model runs:

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 081205
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1205 UTC SAT SEP 8 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912012) 20120908 0600 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120908  0600   120908  1800   120909  0600   120909  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.4N  20.7W   15.2N  23.7W   16.1N  27.0W   17.2N  30.8W
BAMD    14.4N  20.7W   15.0N  24.1W   15.7N  27.6W   16.3N  31.2W
BAMM    14.4N  20.7W   15.2N  24.1W   16.0N  27.8W   16.8N  31.6W
LBAR    14.4N  20.7W   15.0N  24.1W   15.7N  27.7W   16.6N  31.4W
SHIP        25KTS          33KTS          42KTS          52KTS
DSHP        25KTS          33KTS          42KTS          52KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120910  0600   120911  0600   120912  0600   120913  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.4N  35.1W   20.9N  42.9W   23.4N  49.4W   26.9N  53.4W
BAMD    17.0N  35.0W   18.8N  41.5W   20.8N  46.0W   23.8N  49.3W
BAMM    17.6N  35.6W   19.2N  42.6W   20.7N  48.4W   22.6N  52.6W
LBAR    17.9N  35.0W   21.6N  40.4W   26.2N  42.1W   28.3N  36.3W
SHIP        63KTS          79KTS          85KTS          85KTS
DSHP        63KTS          79KTS          85KTS          85KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.4N LONCUR =  20.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  17KT
LATM12 =  13.8N LONM12 =  17.3W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 =  17KT
LATM24 =  12.9N LONM24 =  12.3W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

Last edited by Extratropical94 on Tue Sep 11, 2012 10:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Sep 08, 2012 10:21 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 08, 2012 10:26 am

The 12z Models came out very late.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 081500
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SAT SEP 8 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912012) 20120908 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120908  1200   120909  0000   120909  1200   120910  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.5N  21.0W   15.7N  24.2W   17.2N  28.1W   18.9N  32.5W
BAMD    14.5N  21.0W   15.3N  24.6W   16.2N  28.2W   17.2N  31.9W
BAMM    14.5N  21.0W   15.6N  24.6W   16.8N  28.6W   18.1N  32.6W
LBAR    14.5N  21.0W   15.1N  24.0W   16.0N  27.4W   17.0N  30.8W
SHIP        25KTS          32KTS          40KTS          48KTS
DSHP        25KTS          32KTS          40KTS          48KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120910  1200   120911  1200   120912  1200   120913  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.6N  37.1W   24.1N  43.8W   28.7N  47.1W   34.4N  43.9W
BAMD    18.5N  35.8W   21.4N  41.4W   24.7N  44.0W   27.8N  42.9W
BAMM    19.4N  36.8W   22.0N  43.3W   25.3N  47.4W   30.4N  47.5W
LBAR    18.4N  34.2W   22.2N  39.5W   26.9N  39.9W   27.8N  33.7W
SHIP        55KTS          66KTS          68KTS          66KTS
DSHP        55KTS          66KTS          68KTS          66KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.5N LONCUR =  21.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  14.1N LONM12 =  18.8W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =  13.4N LONM24 =  15.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
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#4 Postby RL3AO » Sat Sep 08, 2012 11:11 am

Image

If that's not a re-curve setup then I don't know what is.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 08, 2012 3:46 pm

18z Models.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 082007
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2007 UTC SAT SEP 8 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912012) 20120908 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120908  1800   120909  0600   120909  1800   120910  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.3N  22.8W   15.6N  25.7W   17.2N  29.6W   19.1N  34.0W
BAMD    14.3N  22.8W   15.2N  26.3W   16.3N  29.9W   17.5N  33.7W
BAMM    14.3N  22.8W   15.4N  26.4W   16.8N  30.2W   18.1N  34.4W
LBAR    14.3N  22.8W   14.8N  25.9W   15.7N  29.5W   16.8N  33.0W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          40KTS          50KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          40KTS          50KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120910  1800   120911  1800   120912  1800   120913  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.9N  38.6W   23.8N  45.9W   28.0N  50.2W   34.1N  48.2W
BAMD    18.9N  37.4W   21.4N  42.6W   24.1N  45.6W   27.5N  47.2W
BAMM    19.5N  38.5W   21.5N  45.0W   23.8N  50.0W   27.0N  53.0W
LBAR    18.4N  36.4W   22.4N  41.7W   27.0N  43.0W   28.0N  36.0W
SHIP        60KTS          74KTS          80KTS          85KTS
DSHP        60KTS          74KTS          80KTS          85KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.3N LONCUR =  22.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =  14.2N LONM12 =  20.1W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =  13.8N LONM24 =  17.3W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#6 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 08, 2012 5:46 pm

The 18zGFS keeps this weak and misses the weakness east of the islands and pretty much degenerates this into an open wave just north of the islands heading north of due west
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#7 Postby Caribwxgirl » Sat Sep 08, 2012 6:10 pm

I'm liking the models so far. Love that this seems intent on heading out to sea.
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#8 Postby Nimbus » Sat Sep 08, 2012 6:36 pm

We don't have much of a trend yet but at 53 W the track moved about 7 degrees right from the first runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#9 Postby blp » Sat Sep 08, 2012 7:20 pm

18z GFS is interesting. Let's see what 00z models show.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#10 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Sep 08, 2012 9:38 pm

/gfs/18z http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html that got weak system near leewards
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#11 Postby ROCK » Sun Sep 09, 2012 12:52 am

12Z not much different....weak and recurve around 60W.....notice the long range fairly quiet also.....with some big time fronts sweeping through....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#12 Postby Nederlander » Sun Sep 09, 2012 1:45 am

ROCK wrote:12Z not much different....weak and recurve around 60W.....notice the long range fairly quiet also.....with some big time fronts sweeping through....

CV season done?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#13 Postby LaBreeze » Sun Sep 09, 2012 2:02 am

Nederlander wrote:
ROCK wrote:12Z not much different....weak and recurve around 60W.....notice the long range fairly quiet also.....with some big time fronts sweeping through....

CV season done?

Let's hope - but then there's always homegrown that we've got to keep an eye for. :(
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#14 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Sep 09, 2012 3:38 am

I'd rather have the waves spinning up and recurving out there than have the energy make it into the Caribbean before spinning up.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 09, 2012 8:04 pm

00z Models. Look how agressive on intensity SHIP is.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 100057
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0057 UTC MON SEP 10 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912012) 20120910 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120910  0000   120910  1200   120911  0000   120911  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.0N  33.6W   16.1N  36.2W   17.1N  39.3W   18.3N  42.8W
BAMD    15.0N  33.6W   15.8N  36.7W   16.7N  39.7W   17.5N  42.3W
BAMM    15.0N  33.6W   15.9N  36.7W   16.8N  39.7W   17.7N  42.6W
LBAR    15.0N  33.6W   15.8N  37.2W   16.9N  40.8W   18.2N  44.1W
SHIP        25KTS          33KTS          43KTS          56KTS
DSHP        25KTS          33KTS          43KTS          56KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120912  0000   120913  0000   120914  0000   120915  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.5N  46.2W   21.4N  52.9W   23.4N  57.0W   25.3N  57.4W
BAMD    18.4N  44.7W   20.7N  49.0W   24.7N  51.7W   29.2N  52.7W
BAMM    18.7N  45.3W   20.7N  50.5W   23.8N  54.2W   27.4N  55.3W
LBAR    19.6N  46.9W   23.9N  51.1W   29.5N  51.3W   31.8N  44.3W
SHIP        68KTS          87KTS          96KTS          95KTS
DSHP        68KTS          87KTS          96KTS          95KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.0N LONCUR =  33.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  21KT
LATM12 =  14.6N LONM12 =  29.2W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 =  21KT
LATM24 =  14.4N LONM24 =  25.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#16 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 10, 2012 5:51 pm

If the Euro is right,a very strong extratropical or tropical cyclone (Nadine) will move thru the Azores islands.

Image
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ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#17 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Mon Sep 10, 2012 5:59 pm

Looking at the interactive model spread. It is already posted as a depression 14.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/ ... atestrun=1
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#18 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Tue Sep 11, 2012 6:48 pm

I'm interested in how on the latest long range model runs (GFS, ECMWF & CMC) some type of energy seems to split off from the western edge of TD-14, spin up & then hit the Maritime, weird....
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Re:

#19 Postby ROCK » Wed Sep 12, 2012 11:51 am

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:I'm interested in how on the latest long range model runs (GFS, ECMWF & CMC) some type of energy seems to split off from the western edge of TD-14, spin up & then hit the Maritime, weird....



its still showing it to some extent. its low that originates along the tail end of the front and moves up it. Not so much a split of energy. Nadine is heading for the Azores.
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#20 Postby greenkat » Sat Sep 15, 2012 9:58 pm

Hey, (sorry to sound a little forceful) but could we have some more current model runs up? Thanks. :wink:
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Hope this helped ;)
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