BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 82
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 02 2012
...NEVER-ENDING NADINE CONTINUES TOWARD THE AZORES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 35.7W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.7 WEST. NADINE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NADINE
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AZORES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 82
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 02 2012
NADINE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING SHEARED APART AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PROTECTING IT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST...EXPOSING THE CYCLONE TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE
T-NUMBERS AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. WIND RADII WERE
ADJUSTED INWARD SLIGHTLY BASED ON A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AT 02/2317
UTC...WHICH CAUGHT THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF NADINE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/08 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NADINE GRADUALLY TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
OR WESTERN AZORES IN ABOUT 30 HOURS. IN THE 36- TO 72-HOUR TIME
FRAME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS IT IS STEERED
AROUND A MUCH LARGER DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME GRADUAL
WEAKENING. AS NADINE APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE
AZORES ISLANDS...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SHARPLY DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 20C. THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS WOULD
NORMALLY PRODUCE RAPID WEAKENING AND/OR DISSIPATION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. IN THIS CASE...HOWEVER...THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TROPOSPHERE
IS ALSO FORECAST TO COOL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME MODERATE CONVECTION AND ALLOW NADINE TO
HANG ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AZORES.
BY 48 HOURS...HOSTILE VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AMPLIFYING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/LOW SHOULD BRING ABOUT A RAPID DEMISE
OF NADINE BY DAY 3...WITH ITS REMNANTS BEING ABSORBED INTO A VERY
LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY DAY 4.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 34.4N 35.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 35.2N 33.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 37.2N 30.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...SOUTHWEST OF AZORES
36H 04/1200Z 40.8N 28.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...NORTH OF AZORES
48H 05/0000Z 44.6N 26.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 06/0000Z 48.0N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
ATL: NADINE - Advisories
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Re: ATL: NADINE - Advisories
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Re: ATL: NADINE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 82A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
200 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012
...NADINE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AZORES...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.5N 35.4W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.4 WEST. NADINE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY THIS
AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NADINE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE AZORES TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY
TONIGHT.
RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 82A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
200 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012
...NADINE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AZORES...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.5N 35.4W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.4 WEST. NADINE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY THIS
AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NADINE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE AZORES TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY
TONIGHT.
RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: NADINE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 83
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012
...NADINE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AZORES WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.9N 34.6W
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.6 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
BY TONIGHT...AND A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
NADINE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OR NEAR THE AZORES TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. HOWEVER...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
CHARACTERISTICS THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY
TONIGHT.
RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 83
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012
NADINE IS SHOWING A SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN THIS MORNING...WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED AT THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION DUE TO 20-30 KT OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE
T-NUMBERS AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.
NADINE IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE LEFT...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION
NOW 075/9. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING NADINE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CAUSE THE MUCH SMALLER NADINE TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 48 HR...AND DURING THIS TIME THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE GUIDANCE BECOMES
DIVERGENT BETWEEN 48-72 HR...WITH THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE NOW
FORECASTING A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET CALL
FOR NADINE TO TURN WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS
PART OF THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND UKMET IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER.
NADINE SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH BEFORE THE STORM REACHES THE
AZORES...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF SOME WEAKENING OCCURRED.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT AND BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HR...WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING ABSORBED
WITHIN THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW AFTER 72 HR.
THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON INPUT FROM THE
OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 34.9N 34.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 35.8N 32.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 38.7N 29.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 42.7N 27.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 46.8N 25.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/0600Z 48.0N 29.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 83
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012
...NADINE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AZORES WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.9N 34.6W
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.6 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
BY TONIGHT...AND A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
NADINE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OR NEAR THE AZORES TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. HOWEVER...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
CHARACTERISTICS THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY
TONIGHT.
RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 83
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012
NADINE IS SHOWING A SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN THIS MORNING...WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED AT THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION DUE TO 20-30 KT OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE
T-NUMBERS AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.
NADINE IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE LEFT...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION
NOW 075/9. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING NADINE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CAUSE THE MUCH SMALLER NADINE TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 48 HR...AND DURING THIS TIME THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE GUIDANCE BECOMES
DIVERGENT BETWEEN 48-72 HR...WITH THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE NOW
FORECASTING A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET CALL
FOR NADINE TO TURN WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS
PART OF THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND UKMET IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER.
NADINE SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH BEFORE THE STORM REACHES THE
AZORES...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF SOME WEAKENING OCCURRED.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT AND BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HR...WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING ABSORBED
WITHIN THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW AFTER 72 HR.
THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON INPUT FROM THE
OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 34.9N 34.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 35.8N 32.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 38.7N 29.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 42.7N 27.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 46.8N 25.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/0600Z 48.0N 29.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: NADINE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 83A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012
...WEAKENING NADINE HEADING TOWARD THE AZORES...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.9N 34.0W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.
NADINE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NADINE
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OR NEAR THE AZORES LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY
TONIGHT.
RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 83A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012
...WEAKENING NADINE HEADING TOWARD THE AZORES...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.9N 34.0W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.
NADINE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NADINE
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OR NEAR THE AZORES LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY
TONIGHT.
RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: NADINE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 84
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH NADINE FORECAST TO
SPREAD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AZORES TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 33.3W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.3 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD BEGIN
LATER TODAY. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING NADINE THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN AZORES TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT
NADINE IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN THE CENTER
MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY
TONIGHT.
RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY....PARTICULARLY THE CENTRAL AZORES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 84
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012
STRONG SHEAR CONTINUES OVER NADINE...AND THE CENTER IS NOW
COMPLETELY SEPARATED FROM A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL VIGOROUS...AND RECENT ASCAT DATA
SUGGEST WINDS ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER THIS
MORNING. STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATER SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING...
AND NADINE MOST LIKELY WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT
36 HOURS OR MUCH EARLIER BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
NADINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST OR 080 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT. THE TROPICAL STORM IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE...BUT SOON NADINE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTH AROUND THE LOW WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. TRACK
MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO PRIMARILY FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH NADINE IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER...AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
AZORES TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 35.1N 33.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 36.8N 31.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 40.5N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 44.5N 26.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 05/1200Z 47.0N 26.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/1200Z 48.0N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 84
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH NADINE FORECAST TO
SPREAD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AZORES TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 33.3W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.3 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD BEGIN
LATER TODAY. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING NADINE THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN AZORES TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT
NADINE IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN THE CENTER
MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY
TONIGHT.
RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY....PARTICULARLY THE CENTRAL AZORES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 84
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012
STRONG SHEAR CONTINUES OVER NADINE...AND THE CENTER IS NOW
COMPLETELY SEPARATED FROM A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL VIGOROUS...AND RECENT ASCAT DATA
SUGGEST WINDS ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER THIS
MORNING. STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATER SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING...
AND NADINE MOST LIKELY WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT
36 HOURS OR MUCH EARLIER BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
NADINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST OR 080 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT. THE TROPICAL STORM IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE...BUT SOON NADINE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTH AROUND THE LOW WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. TRACK
MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO PRIMARILY FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH NADINE IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER...AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
AZORES TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 35.1N 33.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 36.8N 31.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 40.5N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 44.5N 26.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 05/1200Z 47.0N 26.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/1200Z 48.0N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
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- Posts: 139087
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Re: ATL: NADINE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 84A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
200 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012
...NADINE MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE AZORES...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 32.5W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.5 WEST. NADINE HAS
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR
18 MPH...29 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. THIS
TRACK SHOULD BRING NADINE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN AZORES TONIGHT
OR EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT
NADINE IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN THE CENTER
MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY
TONIGHT.
RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY....PARTICULARLY THE CENTRAL AZORES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 84A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
200 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012
...NADINE MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE AZORES...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 32.5W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.5 WEST. NADINE HAS
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR
18 MPH...29 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. THIS
TRACK SHOULD BRING NADINE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN AZORES TONIGHT
OR EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT
NADINE IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN THE CENTER
MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY
TONIGHT.
RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY....PARTICULARLY THE CENTRAL AZORES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139087
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL: NADINE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 85
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012
...NADINE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL
STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS TO THE AZORES TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 31.9W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.9 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS
TRACK SHOULD BRING NADINE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN AZORES TONIGHT
OR EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AND NADINE COULD BECOME
A REMNANT LOW AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES
BY TONIGHT.
RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY....PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AZORES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 85
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012
NADINE HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS...AND IF NO NEW DEEP
CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOP...AS ANTICIPATED...NADINE WILL DE DECLARED
A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE COULD STILL PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM- OR GALE-FORCE WINDS AS
IT PASSES NEAR THE AZORES IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO.
NADINE IS FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND A MUCH LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IT IS RUNNING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 16
KT AHEAD OF A FAST-APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...AND THEN POST-TROPICAL NADINE
SHOULD BECOME FULLY ABSORBED BY THE SAME LOW WITHIN WHICH IT IS
EMBEDDED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 36.1N 31.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 38.0N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 43.0N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 05/0600Z 46.5N 25.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 05/1800Z 48.0N 25.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/1800Z...ABSORBED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 85
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012
...NADINE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL
STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS TO THE AZORES TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 31.9W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.9 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS
TRACK SHOULD BRING NADINE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN AZORES TONIGHT
OR EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AND NADINE COULD BECOME
A REMNANT LOW AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES
BY TONIGHT.
RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY....PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AZORES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 85
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012
NADINE HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS...AND IF NO NEW DEEP
CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOP...AS ANTICIPATED...NADINE WILL DE DECLARED
A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE COULD STILL PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM- OR GALE-FORCE WINDS AS
IT PASSES NEAR THE AZORES IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO.
NADINE IS FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND A MUCH LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IT IS RUNNING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 16
KT AHEAD OF A FAST-APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...AND THEN POST-TROPICAL NADINE
SHOULD BECOME FULLY ABSORBED BY THE SAME LOW WITHIN WHICH IT IS
EMBEDDED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 36.1N 31.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 38.0N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 43.0N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 05/0600Z 46.5N 25.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 05/1800Z 48.0N 25.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/1800Z...ABSORBED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
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- Posts: 139087
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL: NADINE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 85A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012
...NADINE EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS
TO THE AZORES TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 31.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.0 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...NADINE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN AZORES
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE...AND NADINE COULD BECOME
A REMNANT LOW AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SHIPS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER
OF NADINE HAVE BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES
BY TONIGHT.
RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY....PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AZORES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 85A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012
...NADINE EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS
TO THE AZORES TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 31.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.0 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...NADINE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN AZORES
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE...AND NADINE COULD BECOME
A REMNANT LOW AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SHIPS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER
OF NADINE HAVE BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES
BY TONIGHT.
RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY....PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AZORES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: NADINE - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 86
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012
NADINE IS A VERTICALLY SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN EXTREMELY LARGE OCCLUDED
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH NADINE IS NOT A
CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE...RECENT SSMIS AND AMSU MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A LARGE AND WELL-PRONOUNCED BAND OF SHALLOW
TO MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...DESPITE
THE RATHER DEGRADED AND POOR APPEARANCE IN GEOSTATIONARY INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BEING
MAINTAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY CI-NUMBER OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND A 36-KT WIND REPORT
FROM SHIP BATFR18 LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AT 0200 UTC.
THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/21 KT. NADINE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A MUCH LARGER DEEP-LAYER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE CURRENT NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN 48
TO 72 HOURS...THEN POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL NADINE IS FORECAST
TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW IN
WHICH IT IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY..AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF
THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCA.
THE 36-KT SHIP REPORT AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IN EXCESS OF 20 KT
ARGUES FOR KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT FROM NOW THROUGH LANDFALL
IN THE AZORES. NADINE COULD MERGE WITH EITHER A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OR CATCH UP TO AND MERGE WITH A WARM
FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AZORES...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BUT BY 24
HOURS...CLEAR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS LIKELY. REGARDLESS OF THE
STATUS OF NADINE...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
TROPICAL-STORM- OR GALE-FORCE WINDS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AZORES
LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED
ON SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS FROM SHIPS WITH CALL
SIGNS BATFR13...BATFR15...AND BATFR18...WHICH HAVE BEEN NAVIGATING
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION OF NADINE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 37.4N 30.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 40.2N 28.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 05/0000Z 44.5N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 05/1200Z 47.0N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 06/0000Z 49.0N 27.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012
NADINE IS A VERTICALLY SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN EXTREMELY LARGE OCCLUDED
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH NADINE IS NOT A
CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE...RECENT SSMIS AND AMSU MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A LARGE AND WELL-PRONOUNCED BAND OF SHALLOW
TO MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...DESPITE
THE RATHER DEGRADED AND POOR APPEARANCE IN GEOSTATIONARY INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BEING
MAINTAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY CI-NUMBER OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND A 36-KT WIND REPORT
FROM SHIP BATFR18 LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AT 0200 UTC.
THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/21 KT. NADINE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A MUCH LARGER DEEP-LAYER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE CURRENT NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN 48
TO 72 HOURS...THEN POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL NADINE IS FORECAST
TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW IN
WHICH IT IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY..AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF
THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCA.
THE 36-KT SHIP REPORT AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IN EXCESS OF 20 KT
ARGUES FOR KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT FROM NOW THROUGH LANDFALL
IN THE AZORES. NADINE COULD MERGE WITH EITHER A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OR CATCH UP TO AND MERGE WITH A WARM
FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AZORES...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BUT BY 24
HOURS...CLEAR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS LIKELY. REGARDLESS OF THE
STATUS OF NADINE...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
TROPICAL-STORM- OR GALE-FORCE WINDS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AZORES
LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED
ON SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS FROM SHIPS WITH CALL
SIGNS BATFR13...BATFR15...AND BATFR18...WHICH HAVE BEEN NAVIGATING
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION OF NADINE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 37.4N 30.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 40.2N 28.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 05/0000Z 44.5N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 05/1200Z 47.0N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 06/0000Z 49.0N 27.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: NADINE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 86A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
200 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012
...CENTER OF NADINE APPROACHING THE AZORES...
...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AZORES
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.6N 29.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...300 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.3 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...NADINE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN AZORES
THIS MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE...AND NADINE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES
THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY....PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AZORES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 86A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
200 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012
...CENTER OF NADINE APPROACHING THE AZORES...
...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AZORES
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.6N 29.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...300 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.3 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...NADINE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN AZORES
THIS MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE...AND NADINE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES
THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY....PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AZORES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: NADINE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 87
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012
...NADINE STARTING TO LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS...
...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS NOW OCCURRING IN THE AZORES...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.4N 28.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF LAJES AIR FORCE BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.4 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF NADINE SHOULD MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL AZORES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NADINE IS
LOSING ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. LAJES AIR FORCE BASE RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 43 MPH...69 KH/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 54 MPH...87 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
LAJES AIR FORCE BASE RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 999 MB...
29.50 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE AZORES
THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 87
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012
NADINE IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THIS MORNING. THERE
IS NO CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS IS
IN A BAND WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...A
COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE STORM FROM THE WEST. RECENT AMSU DATA
INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE STILL HAS A WARM CORE...SO IT WILL BE
KEPT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGERY CAN BETTER REVEAL
THE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT BASED ON A
37-KT WIND REPORT AT LAJES AIR FORCE BASE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/20. NADINE IS BEING STEERED BY A
LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TURN NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HR...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE LOW. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION.
NADINE SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HR...MAINTAINING GALE-FORCE WINDS DURING AND AFTER THE
TRANSITION. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BEING ABSORBED INTO
THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 48-72 HR...AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 38.4N 28.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 41.9N 26.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 05/0600Z 45.2N 26.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 05/1800Z 47.0N 26.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 06/0600Z 48.5N 27.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 87
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012
...NADINE STARTING TO LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS...
...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS NOW OCCURRING IN THE AZORES...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.4N 28.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF LAJES AIR FORCE BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.4 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF NADINE SHOULD MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL AZORES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NADINE IS
LOSING ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. LAJES AIR FORCE BASE RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 43 MPH...69 KH/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 54 MPH...87 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
LAJES AIR FORCE BASE RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 999 MB...
29.50 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE AZORES
THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 87
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012
NADINE IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THIS MORNING. THERE
IS NO CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS IS
IN A BAND WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...A
COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE STORM FROM THE WEST. RECENT AMSU DATA
INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE STILL HAS A WARM CORE...SO IT WILL BE
KEPT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGERY CAN BETTER REVEAL
THE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT BASED ON A
37-KT WIND REPORT AT LAJES AIR FORCE BASE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/20. NADINE IS BEING STEERED BY A
LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TURN NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HR...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE LOW. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION.
NADINE SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HR...MAINTAINING GALE-FORCE WINDS DURING AND AFTER THE
TRANSITION. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BEING ABSORBED INTO
THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 48-72 HR...AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 38.4N 28.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 41.9N 26.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 05/0600Z 45.2N 26.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 05/1800Z 47.0N 26.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 06/0600Z 48.5N 27.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: NADINE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 87A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012
...NADINE BECOMING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 27.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NNW OF LAJES IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES
IN THIS CASE...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.2 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H. NADINE SHOULD
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AZORES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NADINE IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS...AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER THIS
MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM LAJES
IN THE AZORES IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE AZORES
THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 87A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012
...NADINE BECOMING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 27.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NNW OF LAJES IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES
IN THIS CASE...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.2 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H. NADINE SHOULD
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AZORES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NADINE IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS...AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER THIS
MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM LAJES
IN THE AZORES IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE AZORES
THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: ATL: NADINE - Advisories
BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 88
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012
...BYE BYE NADINE...
...WHAT A LONG STRANGE TRIP ITS BEEN...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 26.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NNE OF LAJES IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE WEATHER SERVICE OF PORTUGAL HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE AZORES.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT NADINE NO LONGER
HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND BECAME ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF NADINE WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 40.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.7 WEST...MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE REMNANTS OF NADINE ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE GALE-FORCE
WINDS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
GALE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DISTURBACE.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
AZORES...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY.
RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF NADINE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AZORES THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS
OF NADINE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEO FRANCE
MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
REMNANTS OF NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 88
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012
BYE BYE NADINE. AFTER TRAVELING FOR OVER THREE WEEKS ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...AFFECTING THE AZORES TWICE...AND AFTER 88 NHC
ADVISORIES...NADINE HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED. SATELLITE IMAGES AND
ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT BY 1200 UTC THIS MORNING...NADINE NO
LONGER HAD A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND HAD BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PENDING A POST-STORM ANALYSIS...NADINE WILL TIE GINGER
OF 1971 AS THE SECOND-LONGEST-LASTING ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ON
RECORD AT 21.25 DAYS. AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH INCLUDES THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE...IT IS THE FIFTH-LONGEST-LASTING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD IN THE BASIN...AT 21.75 DAYS.
GLOBAL MODELS KEEP A VORTICITY MAXIMUM...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF NADINE...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE IN
A DAY OR TWO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 40.0N 26.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG
REMNANTS OF NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 88
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012
...BYE BYE NADINE...
...WHAT A LONG STRANGE TRIP ITS BEEN...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 26.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NNE OF LAJES IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE WEATHER SERVICE OF PORTUGAL HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE AZORES.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT NADINE NO LONGER
HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND BECAME ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF NADINE WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 40.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.7 WEST...MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE REMNANTS OF NADINE ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE GALE-FORCE
WINDS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
GALE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DISTURBACE.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
AZORES...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY.
RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF NADINE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AZORES THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS
OF NADINE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEO FRANCE
MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
REMNANTS OF NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 88
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012
BYE BYE NADINE. AFTER TRAVELING FOR OVER THREE WEEKS ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...AFFECTING THE AZORES TWICE...AND AFTER 88 NHC
ADVISORIES...NADINE HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED. SATELLITE IMAGES AND
ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT BY 1200 UTC THIS MORNING...NADINE NO
LONGER HAD A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND HAD BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PENDING A POST-STORM ANALYSIS...NADINE WILL TIE GINGER
OF 1971 AS THE SECOND-LONGEST-LASTING ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ON
RECORD AT 21.25 DAYS. AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH INCLUDES THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE...IT IS THE FIFTH-LONGEST-LASTING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD IN THE BASIN...AT 21.75 DAYS.
GLOBAL MODELS KEEP A VORTICITY MAXIMUM...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF NADINE...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE IN
A DAY OR TWO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 40.0N 26.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG
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