ATL: NADINE - Advisories

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 16 2012

FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE INNER-CORE BANDING
FEATURES OF NADINE HAVE IMPROVED...AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTWARD TILT TO THE EYE HAS DECREASED.
SINCE A BANDING EYE HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 70 KT.

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE NADINE HAS
ACCELERATED EASTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 090/20 KT. NADINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BE STEERED QUICKLY
EASTWARD WITHIN MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW FOR NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW TO THE WEST
OF NADINE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THE CYCLONE OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...NADINE IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A SEPARATE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ERRATIC
MOTION OCCURRING WHEN THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT MERGING COULD
OCCUR WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NON-TROPICAL LOW...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS DISCOUNTING THAT SCENARIO AT THIS TIME...AND ONLY
BINARY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...WHICH IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD
INITIAL POSITION...AND LIES BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND
TVCA...AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.

LITTLE CHANGE IN VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...
SO THE MAIN WEAKENING FACTOR WILL BE COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. AFTERWARDS...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A STRONG NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD AND IMPINGES ON THE CYCLONE...AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND FOLLOWS THE TREND
SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSSE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 30.5N 41.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 30.9N 39.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 31.7N 36.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 32.8N 34.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 34.0N 32.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 36.3N 31.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 37.0N 30.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 37.0N 29.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 16 2012

MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT NADINE NO LONGER HAS A
TILTED EYE. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS WANED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALSO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FRAGMENTED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO
65 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS T4.0/65 KT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 080/20 KT. NADINE IS ON TRACK
AND...THEREFORE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF
NADINE. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY DAY 3. AFTER THAT...A SLOW TURN TO THE
EAST IS EXPECTED BY DAYS 4 AND 5 WHEN THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO BINARY INTERACTION WITH A SEPARATE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK...AND LIES BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCA...AND
THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.

ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL
TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY...AND SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE LATTER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL AND
OCEANIC CONDITIONS SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND CONTINUE AFTER THAT AS THE SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE STRONG NORTHEAST ATLANTIC LOW. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND
FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSSE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 30.8N 39.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 31.5N 36.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 32.6N 34.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 33.8N 32.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 34.9N 32.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 36.9N 31.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 37.5N 29.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR AZORES
120H 21/1800Z 37.5N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR AZORES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 16 2012

...NADINE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN AS IT WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 38.1W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NADINE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.1 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST
ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 16 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NADINE HAS DEGRADED SINCE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LESS CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A MORE
ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE BAND. AS A RESULT...DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF
THE LATEST AND T- AND CI-NUMBERS. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
THE SHEAR ALONG WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS SHOULD INDUCE SOME
WEAKENING...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE LACK OF WEAKENING COULD BE DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF
NADINE AND A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CYCLONE FROM THE
WEST. THE NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE AND
ONLY PREDICTS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

MICROWAVE DATA DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS SUGGESTS THAT NADINE
IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN AND HAS TURNED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/16 KT. AN ADDITIONAL REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD TO THE
NORTH OF NADINE AND A CUT-OFF LOW FORMS TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER THAT TIME...ANOTHER MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC. AS THIS OCCURS...THE TRACK GUIDANCE BECOME QUITE
DIVERGENT AS THEY DEPICT VARYING INTERACTIONS OF NADINE AND THE
UPPER-LOW. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...THE NHC
FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

ALTHOUGH NADINE HAS RECENTLY TAKEN ON A LESS TROPICAL APPEARANCE IN
SATELLITE DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THIS TROUGH WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE NADINE TO TRANSITION
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. INSTEAD...THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THAT AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE CUT-OFF
LOW IN A FEW DAYS...NADINE WILL THEN TRANSITION INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS TRANSFORMATION IS FORECAST TO
BE COMPLETE IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 31.4N 38.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 32.1N 35.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 33.2N 33.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 34.4N 32.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 35.6N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 37.0N 31.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 37.5N 29.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 37.5N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST MON SEP 17 2012

AIRMASS IMAGERY FROM EUMETSAT INDICATES THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW INTERACTING WITH NADINE...WITH A TONGUE OF
DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE CYCLONE.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A DECREASE IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION AND AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE TROPICAL 65 KT FROM TAFB AND
SUBTROPICAL 55-65 KT FROM SAB. A RECENT OSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED
SEVERAL 55 KT WIND VECTORS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...WHILE RECENT CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 77-79 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 065/15. AN ADDITIONAL REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD TO
THE NORTH OF NADINE...AND A CUT-OFF LOW FORMS TO THE WEST OF THE
CYCLONE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST
48-72 HR...AND THIS PART OF THE NEW FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AFTER THAT TIME...ANOTHER MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
TOWARD NADINE...WITH THE TWO SYSTEMS LIKELY TO STRONGLY INTERACT
AFTER 96 HR. AS THIS OCCURS...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE BECOMES QUITE
DIVERGENT DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY DEPICT THIS
INTERACTION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SHOWING A SLOW
MOTION...WHICH SMOOTHS THROUGH SOME POSSIBLY VERY ERRATIC MOTION
DURING THIS TIME.

THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT NADINE WILL INTERACT WITH THE
CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND A SECOND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. THESE INTERACTIONS SHOULD CAUSE
NADINE TO INGEST UPPER-LEVEL COOL/DRY AIR...WHICH COULD START
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR TO COMPLETE TRANSITION...AND THEY
MAINTAIN NADINE AS A WARM-CORE SYSTEM THROUGH AT LEAST 96 HR...
POSSIBLY WITH SOME HYBRID CHARACTERISTICS. THE FORECAST OF NADINE
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AT 120 HR IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT
INTERACTION WITH THE NORTH ATLANTIC LOW WILL BRING A LARGER BATCH
OF COLD AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
TRANSITION FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE CYCLONE IS
TROPICAL...EXTRATROPICAL...OR HYBRID...ALL OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE FORECASTS NADINE TO REMAIN A LARGE AND VIGOROUS SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 32.0N 36.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 32.8N 34.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 34.0N 33.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 35.2N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 36.3N 32.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 37.0N 31.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 37.0N 29.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 37.0N 27.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST MON SEP 17 2012

THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR HAS WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. RECENT AMSU SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 63 KT TO 77 KT...AND THE 12Z TAFB CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE WAS T3.5/55 KT. AN AVERAGE OF THESE ESTIMATES SUPPORTS
MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 050/13 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTH WITH A FURTHER REDUCTION IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS NADINE IS INFLUENCED BY
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED TO
ITS WEST. AFTER DAY 3...NADINE WILL INTERACT WITH A DEEP MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND
DROP SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE AZORES ON DAY 5. THE EXPECTED BINARY
INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS COULD RESULT IN SOME ERRATIC
MOTION...WITH NADINE POSSIBLY EVEN BECOMING STATIONARY AT TIMES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AZORES. THE LATEST NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO AS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS
MODELS TVCA AND THE HFIP MODEL TV15...AND THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.

THE INTRUSIONS OF DRIER...STABLE AIR IS BEING OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW REGIME THAT HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...
AS SUGGESTED BY A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS
DEVELOPED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...COOLER
SSTS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BY 24 HOURS AND BEYOND
SHOULD STEADILY TAKE THEIR TOLL...CAUSING NADINE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. BY 96 HOURS...INTERACTION WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE
NORTH OF NADINE...COUPLED WITH SSTS COOLER THAN 22C...IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN THE CYCLONE TRANSITIONING INTO A SIGNIFICANT
EXTRATROPICAL LOW...OR POSSIBLY EVEN A SUBTROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS IV15 AND
ICON... WHICH ARE ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 32.9N 35.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 33.7N 34.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 34.7N 33.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 35.9N 32.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 36.9N 32.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 37.3N 30.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 36.8N 29.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1200Z 36.5N 28.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST MON SEP 17 2012

A SIGNIFICANT FLARE UP OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
A SATELLITE INTENSITY CLASSIFICATION OF T3.0/45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB. HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND DEVELOP
CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SINCE THAT TIME...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS ONLY BEEN DECREASED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS...
EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE IT IS SIGNIFICANTLY RESTRICTED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/10 KT. THE LATEST 12Z NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON NADINE GRADUALLY TURNING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTH WITH A CONTINUED REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH DAY 3.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON NADINE NOT
MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IN THE LATTER FORECAST
PERIODS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE ITS INTERACTION WITH A
DEEP-LAYER LOW FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE HIGH LATITUDES
ON DAYS 3-5. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AT 96- AND
120-HOURS HAS BEEN SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACKS. HOWEVER...THE
NHC ADVISORY TRACK REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODELS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS
THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF INTERACTION EXPECTED TO OCCUR
BETWEEN NADINE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

NADINE MAY BE ABLE TO FIGHT OFF THE INTRUSIONS OF DRIER AND STABLE
AIR...AND COOLER SSTS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO DUE TO ITS LARGE
CIRCULATION. BY DAY 3... HOWEVER...SSTS LESS THAN 24C ALONG WITH
INCREASING SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE DEEP-LAYER EXTRATROPICAL
LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AZORES SHOULD CAUSE NADINE TO
GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. BY DAY 5
AS NADINE MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER WARMER SSTS...THE CYCLONE COULD
TRANSITION BACK INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE EXACT
STATUS OF NADINE AFTER DAY 3...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE
IF ANY EFFECT ON ITS INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE
CONSENSUS MODELS IV15 AND ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 33.5N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 34.3N 33.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 35.4N 32.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 36.5N 32.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 37.1N 31.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 37.0N 30.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/1800Z 35.5N 29.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1800Z 33.0N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 17 2012

AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT FORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF NADINE
THIS AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED THIS EVENING. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA
INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
COLDER CLOUD TOPS...TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. ONCE
AGAIN THIS EVENING NADINE WAS NOT SAMPLED BY THE ASCAT INSTRUMENT
SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB.

NADINE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN AS EXPECTED...AND IT IS NOW MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD OR 045 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES BETWEEN A
DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW TO THE WEST AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. AFTER THAT TIME...A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
PREDICTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE NADINE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY FOR A DAY OR SO TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THE NHC TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS IS NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF
SHOWING LESS DIRECT INTERACTION BETWEEN NADINE AND THE TROUGH LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF NADINE IN
3 TO 4 DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD....THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A DEVELOPING
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES LATE IN THE PERIOD AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
CYCLONE MOVES. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE AND LEANS TOWARD THE
GFS...WHICH HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH NADINE SO FAR.

NADINE WILL BE MOVING OVER A LITTLE COOLER SSTS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE STORM ABOUT
THE SAME STRENGTH AS THE CYCLONE DERIVES SOME ENERGY FROM MID-
LATITUDE SOURCES. WITHIN 2 TO 3 DAYS...A PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE NADINE TO
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN NADINE MOVES SOUTHWARD...THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOSING ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND NADINE
COULD BEGIN THE TRANSITION BACK INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 33.9N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 34.6N 33.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 35.9N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 36.9N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 37.2N 32.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 36.7N 30.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0000Z 35.0N 30.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/0000Z 32.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST TUE SEP 18 2012

MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF NADINE HAS
DIMINISHED...AND THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WITHIN A BAND TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THIS COULD SUGGEST THAT
NADINE IS BEGINNING TO LOSE SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE
INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM SAB
AND T3.5 FROM TAFB.

JUST ABOUT EVERY ASPECT OF THE FORECAST IS COMPLICATED. THERE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 2
DAYS...WITH ALL OF THE MODELS SHOWING A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHWARD MOTION AS NADINE MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY BEYOND 3 DAYS. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
NADINE INTERACTING WITH A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW TO ITS NORTH AND
EITHER MOVING EASTWARD AS ITS OWN ENTITY...OR IN THE CASE OF THE
00Z GFS...MOVING EASTWARD AND BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE CUT-OFF LOW.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE CUT-OFF LOW BYPASSING
NADINE AND BEING REPLACED BY AN ANTICYCLONE...WHICH PUSHES NADINE
BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. DUE TO THE IMMENSE UNCERTAINTY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES VERY LITTLE MOTION AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...THE STEERING PATTERN IS TOO
COMPLEX TO KNOW EXACTLY WHICH SCENARIO WILL VERIFY.

ALTHOUGH NADINE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BAROCLINIC PROCESSES ARE LIKELY TO OFFSET ANY
WEAKENING THAT THE COLDER WATERS WOULD INDUCE. THE GUIDANCE AS A
WHOLE AGREES THAT NADINE SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE IN INTENSITY
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

ONLY SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NADINE BECOMING FULLY INVOLVED
WITH A FRONT...MAKING IT EXTRATROPICAL IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE OTHER
MODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF...SHOW NADINE STAYING AWAY FROM THE
STRONGEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH AS A
NON-FRONTAL CYCLONE. EVEN IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...NADINE
IS STILL LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL DUE TO A LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER COLD WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NADINE
BECOMING POST-TROPICAL IN 3 DAYS...WITHOUT SPECIFYING WHETHER OR
NOT THE CYCLONE WILL BE FRONTAL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 34.3N 33.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 35.1N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 36.2N 32.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 36.9N 32.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 36.8N 31.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 35.5N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 22/0600Z 35.0N 26.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 23/0600Z 35.0N 26.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 AM AST TUE SEP 18 2012

...NADINE COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
AZORES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.5N 33.3W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ISLANDS OF FLORES AND CORVO IN THE NORTHWESTERN AZORES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.3 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AZORES
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 18 2012

...NADINE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 32.9W
ABOUT 410 MI...665 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ISLANDS OF FLORES AND CORVO IN THE NORTHWESTERN AZORES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.9 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY. NADINE MAY MOVE ERRATICALLY THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AZORES
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 18 2012

THE STORM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING SOME...NOT MUCH...DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS 50 KT
BASED ON A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF SHEAR OVER NADINE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...THESE HIGHER-LATITUDE SYSTEMS ARE KNOWN TO BE MORE
RESILIENT TO SHEAR. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST LGEM
GUIDANCE WHICH MORE OR LESS MAINTAINS THE CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS INDICATED BELOW...NADINE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE MUCH FARTHER NORTH OVER THE PERIOD. THEREFORE IT IS NOT LIKELY
TO ENCOUNTER ENOUGH BAROCLINICITY TO UNDERGO AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSFORMATION. HOWEVER...SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER
MARGINALLY WARM WATERS IT COULD...AT SOME POINT...LOSE ENOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION SO THAT IT NO LONGER WOULD QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH SHOWS
POST-TROPICAL STATUS BY DAY 3. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF SUCH A TRANSITION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS COMPLICATED AS A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS
BLOCKING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE AT MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...HOWEVER...HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS 3-5 DAY PREDICTIONS NOW SHOW NADINE...OR ITS
POST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART...BEING DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY THE FLOW
BETWEEN AN INTENSE 500 MB TROUGH TO THE WEST OF EUROPE AND A VERY
STRONG ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NORTH OF 40N OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE GFS SHOWS THE CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THE
ECMWF SHOWS A SIMILAR BEHAVIOR...BUT TAKES THE SYSTEM FARTHER WEST
AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHIFTS THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD
AT DAYS 3-5 BUT DOES NOT YET COMMIT TO THE WESTWARD TURN. THIS IS A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 34.4N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 35.4N 32.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 36.4N 32.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 36.7N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 36.5N 31.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 35.5N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 22/1200Z 34.0N 28.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 23/1200Z 33.0N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
200 PM AST TUE SEP 18 2012

...NADINE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 32.7W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ISLANDS OF FLORES AND CORVO IN THE NORTHWESTERN AZORES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.7 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY. NADINE MAY MOVE ERRATICALLY THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AZORES
LATER TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

Nadine moving north-northeastward with little change in strength...


Summary of 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...35.2n 32.6w
about 365 mi...590 km WSW of the Azores
maximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/h
present movement...NNE or 30 degrees at 8 mph...13 km/h
minimum central pressure...990 mb...29.23 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

the portuguese Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the islands of Flores...corvo...faial...Pico...sao jorge...
graciosa...and Terceira in the Azores.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the islands of Flores...corvo...faial...Pico...sao jorge...
graciosa...and Terceira in the Azores.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your National meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was
located near latitude 35.2 north...longitude 32.6 west. Nadine is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph...13 km/h...this
general motion should continue into Wednesday...but the motion is
likely to become slow and erratic by Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/h...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles...370 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb...29.23 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area by late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Surf...swells generated by Nadine are beginning to affect the
Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory...1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST TUE SEP 18 2012

NADINE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN SOME DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
AND OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ALTHOUGH DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS
HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS OVER THE SYSTEM
SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT. SINCE THE CONVECTION HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH SINCE THAT OVERPASS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN AT 50 KT. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...NADINE SHOULD NOT
MOVE OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS...AND THESE HIGHER-LATITUDE CYCLONES
TEND TO BE MORE RESILIENT TO VERTICAL SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. THE SYSTEM
COULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL IF IT LOSES MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THIS
TRANSITION OCCURRING BY DAY 4. HOWEVER THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF THIS EVENT AND NADINE COULD LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS MUCH SOONER...OR MUCH LATER.

THE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THE
MOTION IS NEAR 030/7. FORECASTING THE TRACK OF THIS CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT CHALLENGE. A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS BLOCKING
PATTERN IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DEVELOP AROUND NADINE
IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...LEADING TO A STRONG
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND AN
INTENSE TROUGH/CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF THIS HIGH. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING ON WHETHER NADINE...OR ITS
POST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART...WILL BE STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OR BE DRAWN EASTWARD BY THE TROUGH IN 3-5
DAYS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE FAVORING THE LATTER
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE NEW ECMWF FORECAST SHOWS THE INTENSE
TROUGH/CYCLONE ABSORBING NADINE WITHIN 3-4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
BUT...IN AN ATTEMPT TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY...IS NOT NEARLY AS FAR
EAST AS THE NEW MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 35.2N 32.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 36.2N 32.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 36.9N 32.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 36.8N 31.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 36.1N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 34.8N 28.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 34.0N 27.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 23/1800Z 33.5N 25.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 PM AST TUE SEP 18 2012

...NADINE GETTING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.4N 32.2W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...
GRACIOSA...AND TERCEIRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC....THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.2 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A NORTHEAST TO
NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE
MOTION IS LIKELY TO BECOME SLOW AND ERRATIC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 18 2012

...NADINE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT INCHES CLOSER TO THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.8N 32.2W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...
GRACIOSA...AND TERCEIRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.2 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THIS MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT THE MOTION IS LIKELY TO
BECOME SLOW AND ERRATIC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 18 2012

THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF NADINE HAS DISSIPATED THIS EVENING
AND THE CYCLONE NOW HAS ONE RAGGED BAND OF CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED AND A BLEND OF THE FINAL T- AND CI-NUMBERS YIELDS AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. NADINE IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS OF AROUND
25 DEGREES CELSIUS AND IT SHOULD MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PREDICTED SLOW MOTION OF NADINE
COULD ALSO CAUSE SOME UPWELLING...WHICH IS LIKELY TO REDUCE THE
SSTS A LITTLE MORE. ONE WOULD EXPECT THE COOL WATER AND MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO CAUSE NADINE TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...MUCH OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ACTUALLY PREDICT SOME
INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE AS A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE
CHANGE IN INTENSITY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NADINE COULD
BECOME POST-TROPICAL IF IT LOSES MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
TIMING OF WHEN THIS COULD OCCUR.

NADINE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT. THE FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE AS DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE
MODELS AS TO HOW THE STORM WILL INTERACT WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH THAT AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. NADINE IS FORECAST SLOW DOWN AND MEANDER SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHETHER THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
THEN EASTWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...OR TURN SOUTHWESTWARD
AROUND A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED THE LATTER SCENARIO...BUT MOST OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A FASTER EASTWARD SOLUTION. THE
NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE EASTWARD SOLUTION AND IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT NOT AS FAST AS MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE AND THE TVCA CONSENSUS. THIS MAINTAINS SOME CONTINUITY
WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND SHOWS SOME RESPECT FOR THE ECMWF
SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 35.8N 32.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 36.5N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 36.9N 31.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 36.4N 30.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 35.3N 29.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 34.4N 26.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 23/0000Z 34.0N 25.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 24/0000Z 34.0N 24.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
200 AM AST WED SEP 19 2012

...NADINE APPROACHING THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 32.1W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSW OF FLORES IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...
GRACIOSA...AND TERCEIRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.1 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THIS MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT THE MOTION IS LIKELY TO BECOME SLOW AND
ERRATIC TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA BY LATER TODAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST WED SEP 19 2012

...FUTURE OF NADINE IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.4N 32.1W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...
GRACIOSA...AND TERCEIRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.1 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. NADINE SHOULD MOVE
ERRATICALLY TODAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT
ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA BY LATER TODAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST WED SEP 19 2012

NADINE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TYPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATELLITE.
THE CENTER IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS WITHIN A CURVED BAND WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS.

IF THE DIAGNOSIS OF NADINE IS DIFFICULT...THE FORECAST IS EVEN MORE
SO AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WITHIN A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND OVER COOL WATERS. THIS NORMALLY WOULD LEAD
TO WEAKENING. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS
KEEP NADINE AS A STRONG CYCLONE...AND EVEN STRENGTHEN IT A LITTLE
BIT. I AM ASSUMING THAT THIS IS DUE TO THE FORECAST INTERACTION
WITH A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH IN FACT...THE GFS ASSUMES
WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT SYSTEM. ON THE CONTRARY...THE ECMWF MAKES
NADINE THE PREVAILING ONE. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...OR
EXTRATROPICAL LOW DRIFTING EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE AZORES FOR
A FEW DAYS. AT THIS TIME...THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SOME CONTINUITY
AND ASSUMES THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LOSE ALL ITS ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION OVER THE COOLER WATERS AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS OR SO.

THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT IS GRADUALLY
TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS A SLOW EASTWARD-MOVING
OR MEANDERING CYCLONE TO THE SOUTH OR EAST OF THE AZORES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 36.4N 32.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 37.0N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 36.6N 31.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 35.5N 29.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 34.5N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 22/0600Z 34.0N 25.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 23/0600Z 34.0N 24.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 24/0600Z 34.0N 22.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 AM AST WED SEP 19 2012

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.7N 31.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF FLORES IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...
GRACIOSA...AND TERCEIRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.7 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. NADINE SHOULD MOVE
ERRATICALLY TODAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT
ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA BY LATER TODAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[westwind]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST WED SEP 19 2012

...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
AZORES THROUGH THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.2N 31.8W
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE PORTUGUESE WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAO MIGUEL AND SANTA MARIA IN THE AZORES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...
GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA...SAO MIGUEL...AND SANTA MARIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.8 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. NADINE
SHOULD MOVE ERRATICALLY TODAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AN EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM
FROM THE CENTER. EARLIER THIS MORNING...CORVO IN THE AZORES
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 42 MPH...68 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 58
MPH...93 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST WED SEP 19 2012

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECLINING AND IS BECOMING FARTHER
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. AMSU DATA SHOWED A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
WARM CORE STRUCTURE...BUT THE LACK OF CENTRAL CONVECTION IS
INDICATIVE OF A DECAYING TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT BUT SINCE THIS IS SUCH A MARGINAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE...THESE ESTIMATES MAY BE PROBLEMATIC. A RECENT ASCAT PASS
SHOWED THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAD WINDS TO 45 KT. HOWEVER...IF THE
CURRENT CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES...NADINE WILL SOON NO LONGER
QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING POST-TROPICAL IN 24 HOURS BUT
THIS TRANSITION COULD OCCUR EVEN EARLIER THAN THAT. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST MAINTAINS THE 45-KT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
SINCE THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY FIND SOME SOURCES OF
BAROCLINIC ENERGY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE MOTION IS BECOMING ERRATIC AND THE CURRENT ESTIMATE IS 020/04.
MOST OF THE BETTER-PERFORMING DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD SOON TURN TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AS IT
BECOMES CAUGHT IN THE STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A
STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND CUTOFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE MODELS BECOME MORE DIVERGENT WITH THE U.K.
MET. OFFICE MODEL TAKING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD...THE
ECMWF SHOWING THE CYCLONE BECOMING ABSORBED...AND THE GFS MOVING
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY TOWARD PORTUGAL. AS A COMPROMISE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST MOVES THE CYCLONE SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM DAYS 3 TO 5. THIS
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND NOT FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 37.2N 31.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 37.4N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 36.6N 30.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 21/0000Z 35.5N 28.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 21/1200Z 34.5N 26.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 22/1200Z 34.5N 23.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 23/1200Z 34.5N 22.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 24/1200Z 34.5N 21.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
200 PM AST WED SEP 19 2012

...NADINE MOVING LITTLE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 32.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSW OF FLORES THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...
GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA...SAO MIGUEL...AND SANTA MARIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.2 WEST. NADINE HAS
BEEN DRIFTING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE OVERALL MOTION. A COUNTINUED ERRATIC MOTION IS LIKELY
TODAY...BUT NADINE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT
ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT NADINE COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST WED SEP 19 2012

...NADINE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 32.0W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSW OF FLORES IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...
GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA...SAO MIGUEL...AND SANTA MARIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.0 WEST. NADINE IS
NEARLY STATIONARY...AND AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN BY EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT NADINE COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST WED SEP 19 2012

NADINE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE EARLIER TODAY...AS IT CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER. THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE CONTINUES TO UNDERESTIMATE THE
INTENSITY OF THIS MARGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE...AS THE LATEST CI
NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ONLY SUPPORT 35 KT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM
THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE NEAR 45 KT...AND
SINCE THE CONVECTION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THAT
TIME...THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT THE LATTER VALUE. AMSU
ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE MIGHT EVEN BE A LITTLE STRONGER.
SINCE NADINE HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY WITH SO LITTLE
DEEP CONVECTION AND SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR...IT IS PROBABLY DERIVING
SOME ENERGY FROM BAROCLINIC SOURCES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
ASSUMES THAT THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT IS PRESUMED
THAT WITHIN A DAY OR SO NADINE WILL LOSE MOST OF ITS DEEP
CONVECTION AND THEREFORE BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. GLOBAL
MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT
AROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING ABOUT FOR MOST OF THE DAY...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY. FORECASTING THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EXTREMELY CHALLENGING. A PROMINENT
BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE AT MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A COMPLICATED STEERING
PATTERN. THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS HAVE HARDLY BEEN A MODEL OF
CONSISTENCY FOR NADINE. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 5-DAY FORECAST POSITION
FROM THE 1200 UTC RUN OF THE GFS HAS SHIFTED A MERE 900 N MI TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE 0600 UTC RUN. THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE IN THE 3-
TO 5-DAY RANGE IS APPARENTLY VERY SENSITIVE TO HOW NADINE INTERACTS
WITH A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC AND A MASSIVE
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN ONE SCENARIO...THE
SYSTEM IS PULLED EASTWARD BY THE TROUGH... AND IN ANOTHER IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE
ANTICYCLONE. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHICH SCENARIO SHOULD BE FAVORED AT
THIS TIME. AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SLOWS THE MOTION TO A CRAWL IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THIS IS A LITTLE SOUTH
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NORTH OF THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 37.1N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 36.7N 31.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 35.9N 29.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 21/0600Z 34.6N 28.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 21/1800Z 33.5N 26.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 22/1800Z 33.5N 24.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 23/1800Z 33.5N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 24/1800Z 33.5N 22.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY