ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[Hurricane Alexis]

12z Euro.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[cycloneye]

To let you know that the model run posted was at the 92L discussion thread so what I did was to turn the post into a thread of models for 92L.

[cycloneye]

First Model Plots

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

2059 UTC SAT SEP 15 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120915 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120915 1800 120916 0600 120916 1800 120917 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.0N 53.0W 13.8N 54.9W 14.5N 56.5W 15.0N 58.0W

BAMD 13.0N 53.0W 13.7N 56.2W 14.4N 58.9W 15.0N 61.3W

BAMM 13.0N 53.0W 13.7N 55.5W 14.5N 57.6W 15.1N 59.6W

LBAR 13.0N 53.0W 13.7N 55.6W 14.7N 58.1W 15.5N 60.2W

SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 48KTS

DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 48KTS


...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120917 1800 120918 1800 120919 1800 120920 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.6N 59.9W 16.6N 64.1W 18.0N 68.5W 19.1N 72.9W

BAMD 15.4N 63.5W 16.0N 68.2W 16.8N 73.0W 18.0N 77.4W

BAMM 15.6N 61.6W 16.5N 66.2W 17.7N 71.2W 18.9N 76.3W

LBAR 16.5N 62.2W 17.6N 65.9W 18.9N 69.9W 21.0N 74.0W

SHIP 59KTS 78KTS 89KTS 96KTS

DSHP 59KTS 78KTS 89KTS 89KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 53.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT

LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 50.6W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 11KT

LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 47.1W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

[jinftl]

[Hurricane Alexis]

To let you know that the model run posted was at the 92L discussion thread so what I did was to turn the post into a thread of models for 92L.

I understand .

[cycloneye]

NOGAPS is the only global model that so far develops 92L.

12z run.

[Kingarabian]

Brings it really close to PR..

[Hurricaneman]

The models are reallt anemic for this one, I do believe the models are underestimating this, but I also do think that this will be weaker than the SHIPS and LBAR have in their output

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

00z Models

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CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0010 UTC SUN SEP 16 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120916 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120916  0000   120916  1200   120917  0000   120917  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.3N  54.3W   13.9N  56.0W   14.5N  57.4W   14.9N  59.1W
BAMD    13.3N  54.3W   14.0N  57.3W   14.8N  60.0W   15.4N  62.4W
BAMM    13.3N  54.3W   14.0N  56.6W   14.7N  58.7W   15.3N  60.9W
LBAR    13.3N  54.3W   14.2N  56.8W   15.2N  59.1W   16.1N  61.1W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          36KTS          45KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          36KTS          45KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120918  0000   120919  0000   120920  0000   120921  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.5N  60.9W   16.4N  65.5W   17.6N  70.4W   18.7N  75.2W
BAMD    15.9N  64.7W   16.9N  69.5W   18.4N  73.9W   19.9N  76.9W
BAMM    15.8N  63.1W   16.7N  67.9W   18.0N  73.0W   19.4N  77.1W
LBAR    17.1N  62.9W   18.6N  66.6W   20.2N  70.5W   21.6N  73.3W
SHIP        57KTS          77KTS          89KTS          97KTS
DSHP        57KTS          77KTS          89KTS          92KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.3N LONCUR =  54.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  12.7N LONM12 =  51.8W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  12.3N LONM24 =  49.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =   90NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[bonjourno]

Apparently some GFS ensembles want to develop it, but the operational run drops it after a day or so.

[cycloneye]

GFS Ensembles. Will the operational GFS come aboard?

[blp]

Take a look at intensity guidance if it gets into the W. Carribean.

[ROCK]

Take a look at intensity guidance if it gets into the W. Carribean.

yep the SHIPS likes it a whole lot.....

[bonjourno]

Curious to see what (if anything) HWRF does with this.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Take a look at intensity guidance if it gets into the W. Carribean.

A cyclone that deep will likely turn towards the north earlier with all that troughing in the SE US.

[Hurricane Alexis]

00z Euro.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[cycloneye]

12z Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 161302
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1302 UTC SUN SEP 16 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120916 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120916  1200   120917  0000   120917  1200   120918  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.3N  54.9W   14.0N  56.5W   14.5N  58.2W   15.0N  60.1W
BAMD    13.3N  54.9W   13.8N  57.6W   14.1N  60.3W   14.4N  62.9W
BAMM    13.3N  54.9W   13.9N  57.0W   14.4N  59.2W   14.8N  61.3W
LBAR    13.3N  54.9W   13.9N  57.2W   14.6N  59.6W   15.2N  61.8W
SHIP        25KTS          27KTS          32KTS          41KTS
DSHP        25KTS          27KTS          32KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120918  1200   120919  1200   120920  1200   120921  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.4N  62.1W   16.5N  66.5W   17.5N  71.1W   18.1N  75.6W
BAMD    14.6N  65.5W   15.3N  70.6W   16.2N  75.0W   16.9N  78.9W
BAMM    15.1N  63.8W   15.7N  68.9W   16.6N  74.2W   17.5N  79.1W
LBAR    15.8N  64.2W   16.7N  69.0W   18.5N  73.6W   20.8N  78.3W
SHIP        51KTS          68KTS          80KTS          87KTS
DSHP        51KTS          68KTS          80KTS          87KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.3N LONCUR =  54.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
LATM12 =  13.1N LONM12 =  52.7W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  12.9N LONM24 =  50.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[floridasun78]

so models dont want now make turn toward south fl ?

[chaser1]

so models dont want now make turn toward south fl ?

Well looking at the end of that run, it would appear as if 92L is slowing down some (which would make sense given the anticipated long wave & trough position). As quick ascent northward in the mid term would appear to shear the system apart. Looks like a set up that could add some precipitation to W. Cuba and South Florida while a sheared mess slides NNE along the decayed front.

[CrazyC83]

SHIPS seems to be on crack there IMO. The odds of this developing is low, forget turning into dangerous Hurricane Oscar (the Grouch).

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.