ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

[Extratropical94]

Guess what...

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invest_al932012.invest
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201209161725
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2012, DB, O, 2012091612, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932012
AL, 93, 2012091512, , BEST, 0, 246N, 973W, 20, 1014, PT, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012091518, , BEST, 0, 247N, 969W, 20, 1014, PT, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012091600, , BEST, 0, 249N, 965W, 20, 1014, PT, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012091606, , BEST, 0, 252N, 962W, 20, 1014, PT, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012091612, , BEST, 0, 255N, 960W, 20, 1014, PT, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[CrazyC83]

In other words, the Gulf low that is likely to cause problems in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic this week.

[CrazyC83]

Also post-tropical? It never has been tropical.

[Extratropical94]

20%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...
ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY.

[cycloneye]

93L has floater up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[HurricaneAndrew92]

This won't happen, right?

[storm4u]

not a chance at all

[ROCK]

why is this an invest?

[vbhoutex]

This won't happen, right?

If it did something very strange would be going on with the current weather patterns.
We may get some heavy rains in SE TX as this passes to our S due to the incoming ULL lifting more of the already abundant tropical moisture up our way, but all our friends to the East are the ones that really need to be watching this for any development.

[vbhoutex]

why is this an invest?

It is a surface low in an area and/or going to be moving into an area that could be conducive to development. I am wondering if it is related to the spin that was just N of the Yucatan yesterday or the day before(don't remember which) or if it is something new.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 93, 2012091618, , BEST, 0, 258N, 958W, 20, 1014, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[ROCK]

I see it but its under shear and close to land with an approaching trof....dont think it has much time...might be something up the EC though..

[vbhoutex]

I see it but its under shear and close to land with an approaching trof....dont think it has much time...might be something up the EC though..

And I presume that is why they made it an invest. Right now I am not so sure it will be EC as opposed to N GOM/FL problem if there is any development.

[Dean4Storms]

If it was to go on and develop it'll be a sheared system. I remember Hurricane Earl in 99 I believe which moved ENE from about the same location, stayed fairly sheared yet obtained 100mph winds at one point before landfall east of Panama City Bch. I don't see this system obtaining hurricane strength but a TStorm might not be out of the question if it develops on through the night and into tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

Stays at 20%

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[wxman57]

Extremely high shear. Upper winds SW 50-60 kts over the NW Gulf by morning and continuing out across the northern Gulf to Florida. Nothing tropical could develop in that atmosphere.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A
COLD FRONT LATER TODAY BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF LOUISIANA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

[wxman57]

I don't know, "0 percent" still might be a tad high for this non-tropical system.

[Stormcenter]

This may not be an organized tropical system per say but it still has some serious punch to it.

[superstareporter]

This may not be an organized tropical system per say but it still has some serious punch to it.

In what way????