ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

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ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

Thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113754&p=2276742#p2276742

[Florida1118]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191739
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND
OF FLORES IN THE AZORES.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW COULD BEGIN
TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

There has been an aparent glitch as the position of 12.0N-97.0W is of invest 93E. Now,ATCF is trying to fix it to the proper position and basin and because of that it was deactivated while they do that.

[cycloneye]

Yes!! They fixed the position and now 94L is up again.

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012091918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942012
AL, 94, 2012091918, , BEST, 0, 310N, 510W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO up to 40%

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 750 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE AREA. THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED...AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY
INCREASING IN ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 94, 2012092000, , BEST, 0, 308N, 518W, 25, 1010, DB

[galaxy401]

They feel more confident now that this storm will transition to a more subtropical storm then tropical.

[cycloneye]

The SSD floater is up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[MWatkins]

I think this will come together and develop some. It makes sense, this is the kind of season we've had so far. Conditions outside of the deep tropics seem to be more favorable than within the MDR.

Michael became our only major so far as it came out of the MDR. Isaac intensified at 30N just as it was making landfall in the central gulf coast. I bet the disparity between ACE vs. named storms is going to be historically high this year if things keep up the way they are going.

Will be interesting to see if we get some development in the Caribbean as we get into next month.

MW

[HenkL]

Best track 06Z:

AL, 94, 2012092006, , BEST, 0, 310N, 515W, 30, 1010, DB

[cycloneye]

8 AM EDT TWO remains at 40%.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND GALE FORCE WINDS
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE THEREAFTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 94, 2012092012, , BEST, 0, 312N, 523W, 30, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Extratropical94]

Up to 60%

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NON-TROPICAL GALE LOCATED ABOUT 650
MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE THEREAFTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[MGC]

Yet another large system developing outside the MDR.....that convection needs to wrap the center and that may take some time......MGC

[Hurricanehink]

I noticed that previous TWO's said that 94L could become a subtropical cyclone, but now the wording has the possibility of tropical back in there.

[Extratropical94]

BT up to 35 knots:

AL, 94, 2012092018, , BEST, 0, 306N, 540W, 35, 1006, LO

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Big storm, maybe I see some affects?

[ozonepete]

I noticed that previous TWO's said that 94L could become a subtropical cyclone, but now the wording has the possibility of tropical back in there.

You can see by its shape and the convection beginning to build at the center that it could go straight to tropical.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Track:

[MWatkins]

Yet another large system developing outside the MDR.....that convection needs to wrap the center and that may take some time......MGC

Only one system so far this season has become a hurricane south of 25N, and that was Ernesto. Most of 'em didn't get to hurricane strength until north of 30N.

Conditions have just not been favorable in the deep tropics. Seems like the systems have to start feeling the westerlies NE of the relative ridge axis before they intensify.

Typically tropical cyclones hit peak intensity SE of the ridge axis just before they interact with the westerlies, but not this year!

MW