ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

...RAFAEL SPREADING HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 63.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM W OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 130853
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

...RAFAEL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 64.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[Gustywind]

13/0545 UTC 15.6N 63.9W T1.0/2.0 RAFAEL
12/2345 UTC 15.3N 63.1W T1.5/2.0 RAFAEL

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Storm Rafeal Forcast track

[knotimpaired]

ok folks, let the fun begin.

[wxman57]

Still looks like the heavier squalls should stay east of PR. Notice the plane is still having a hard time finding a circulation center. VDMs all over the place overnight. Sorry excuse for a TS, though I do see some showers/storms starting to develop near the very broad center, so it may become a better-defined TS later today. Main threat for the Lesser Antilles will be continued heavy rain.

[Gustywind]

Nice showers are falling in Guadeloupe. Weather is grey with some gusts.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 17, 2012101312, , BEST, 0, 155N, 639W, 35, 1006, TS

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[Gustywind]

13/1145 UTC 15.7N 64.0W T2.0/2.0 RAFAEL
13/0545 UTC 15.6N 63.9W T1.0/2.0 RAFAEL

[cycloneye]

Here are a few web cams that are located in the Islands. Some are working and others not but at least you can see what is going on. Also there are the radars. Visit the first post of the Caribbean-Central America Weather thread.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&hilit=&start=0

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Storm looks much better organized than last night. Should continue to develop as wind shear decreases. The model consensus brings it up to 70-75 knots by 72 hours.

[knotimpaired]

I received an email this morning from the manager of the Hix Island House saying that the last ferry out was 9:30 this morning.

I am hearing a ferry now leaving so our system seems to be still running.

[Gustywind]

WEATHER FORECAST. Orange vigilance maintained for heavy rains and thunderstorms

franceantilles.fr 13.10.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 189821.php


Wave tropical n ° 37, very active, was appointed last night at 20 hours local time into a tropical storm, it is called Rafael. Showers are still frequent today on our island. They are sometimes quite supported and stormy. This bad weather continues tomorrow Sunday.


The wave tropical n ° 37, very active, was appointed last night at 20 hours local time in tropical storm (Rafael). The centre, where the strongest winds are observed already was in the Caribbean Sea, and is currently (5 hours local) about 260 km to the West of Basse-Terre. Our archipelago should therefore remain on the margins of the winds force storm but remains concerned by the rear of the disturbance, fairly active and extended party on any Caribbean arc.
Showers are still frequent today on our archipelago. They are sometimes quite supported and stormy. This bad weather continues tomorrow Sunday. The south-easterly wind remains supported, with average speeds of 40 to 50 km/h (gusts exceeding 70 km/h) on the coast and the hills, before gradually weakening late in the day.
The sea continues to be amortized slowly, average lows around 2 m at the end. However, it remains pretty hashed due to wind.
Accumulations of water identified during the last 24 hours remain moderate, with 60 to 80 litres per m2 on Basse-Terre, and approximately 50 litres per square metre on Grande-Terre.
Gusts of 80 km/h have been measured on la Désirade, and 65 km/h at Marie - Galante. The sea is in the process of depreciation. Average low of 3 m 60 (with punctual max to 6 m 70) measured yesterday at midday declined m 2: 30 this morning.
Caution is required. The duration and intensity of the precipitation forecast on already soaked soils can cause strong accumulations of water, landslides and flooding in places, as well as the rise of some streams.

[cycloneye]

I received an email this morning from the manager of the Hix Island House saying that the last ferry out was 9:30 this morning.

I am hearing a ferry now leaving so our system seems to be still running.

Vieques and Culebra are now under a Tropical Storm Warning.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

[Sanibel]

Center more under deep convection though synoptically sheared.

[cycloneye]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

There is the center.

[knotimpaired]

Thanks Luis for the update

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Storm Refeal



Tropical Storm Warnings
British and US Virgin islands
Angullia
Montserrat
Antigua and Barbuda
Guadeloupe
Tropical Storm Watch
Puerto Rico

[NDG]

Where Cycloneye placed the COC of Rafael on the radar image looks about right.
COC still looks broad with the deep convection and MLC located SE of it. Though I wouldn't doubt if later today a LLC forms closer to the deep convection and MLC.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[knotimpaired]

Luis,

Please give me the link again for local observations.

K