BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 72.6W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 1 MPH...2 KM/H. A
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED LONG ENOUGH IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK
ESTIMATE. THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE A SHORT LIFE AHEAD OF IT. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A BUILDING LOW-
LEVEL RIDGE INCREASES THE NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHILE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST. THIS INCREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD
SHOULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE SHEARING APART IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. GIVEN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST BEFORE DISSIPATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT...180/01.
AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION A
SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS THROUGH THAT TIME.
SINCE THE TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH DISSIPATION...A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS NOT NEEDED FOR THOSE ISLANDS AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 25.4N 72.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 25.1N 73.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 24.9N 73.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
ATL: PATTY - Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
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ATL: PATTY - Advisories
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012
...PATTY FORMS BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 72.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST. PATTY IS
CURRENTLY STATIONARY BUT A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME WEAKENING LIKELY ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
TROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS
SHEARED...CONVECTION IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER THAN EARLIER
TODAY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45
KT...WHILE THE CIMSS ADT IS AT 35 KT. WHILE THE SUBJECTIVE VALUES
LOOK A BIT HIGH...GIVEN THE STEADY CONVECTION TODAY...IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED SINCE THE 30-KT ASCAT PASS
FROM LAST NIGHT. THUS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY SET
TO 35 KT...MAKING PATTY THE SIXTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON.
THE TROPICAL STORM APPEARS TO BE ON BORROWED TIME AS THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF FACTORS COMING TOGETHER THAT SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE.
FIRST...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO DUE TO A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SECOND...A COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...AND SOME OF
THAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL LIKELY ENTRAIN INTO THE CENTER.
THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN
BY TOMORROW...AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE PATTY TO SHEAR APART INTO A
TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL
FORECASTS...AND NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER INITIAL WINDS.
THE CYCLONE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH TODAY...PROBABLY DUE TO THE CENTER
MAINTAINING VERTICAL COHERENCE IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT PATTY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
INITIALLY...THEN IS BLENDED NEAR THE LATEST CONSENSUS AT 24H.
GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT PATTY COULD REACH THE BAHAMAS AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND
THEREFORE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ISLANDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 25.8N 72.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 25.4N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 24.9N 73.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
TROPICAL STORM PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012
...PATTY FORMS BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 72.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST. PATTY IS
CURRENTLY STATIONARY BUT A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME WEAKENING LIKELY ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
TROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS
SHEARED...CONVECTION IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER THAN EARLIER
TODAY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45
KT...WHILE THE CIMSS ADT IS AT 35 KT. WHILE THE SUBJECTIVE VALUES
LOOK A BIT HIGH...GIVEN THE STEADY CONVECTION TODAY...IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED SINCE THE 30-KT ASCAT PASS
FROM LAST NIGHT. THUS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY SET
TO 35 KT...MAKING PATTY THE SIXTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON.
THE TROPICAL STORM APPEARS TO BE ON BORROWED TIME AS THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF FACTORS COMING TOGETHER THAT SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE.
FIRST...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO DUE TO A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SECOND...A COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...AND SOME OF
THAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL LIKELY ENTRAIN INTO THE CENTER.
THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN
BY TOMORROW...AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE PATTY TO SHEAR APART INTO A
TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL
FORECASTS...AND NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER INITIAL WINDS.
THE CYCLONE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH TODAY...PROBABLY DUE TO THE CENTER
MAINTAINING VERTICAL COHERENCE IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT PATTY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
INITIALLY...THEN IS BLENDED NEAR THE LATEST CONSENSUS AT 24H.
GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT PATTY COULD REACH THE BAHAMAS AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND
THEREFORE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ISLANDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 25.8N 72.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 25.4N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 24.9N 73.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139090
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012
...PATTY STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT MEANDERS WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 72.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST. PATTY IS
STATIONARY...AND SOME SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...
WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE TIGHT
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS...JUST INSIDE THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CANOPY...DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THIS SHEAR PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN CONSENSUS 00Z DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN ADT
ESTIMATE OF T2.9/43 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 40 KT.
RECENT SSMIS...TRMM...AND WINDSAT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE PATTY HAS
REMAINED ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LITTLE
MOVEMENT...OR PERHAPS A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP...IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN NORTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND BENEATH UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. BY 36
HOURS AND BEYOND...THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE LOW-/MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASING AND
FORCING PATTY IN A SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE ATLANTIC. THE EXPECTED SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL ALSO FORCE
PATTY INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND BECOME VERTICALLY SHALLOW...AND DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW OR TROUGH THAT GETS ADVECTED SOUTHWESTWARD OR
WESTWARD BY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. SINCE PATTY IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...ADDITONAL FORECAST POINTS HAVE BEEN ADDED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...
AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECASTS...SINCE THOSE MODELS REFLECT A MORE
ROBUST TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
A FORTUITOUS 11/2031 UTC DROPSONDE REPORT RECEIVED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN REGION INDICATED THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM 850-300 MB
WAS MUCH LESS THAN THE 28-30 KT 850-200 MB SHEAR ASSESSED BY THE
GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL. THIS MIGHT EXPLAIN WHY PATTY HAS REMAINED
WELL-ORGANIZED TODAY DESPITE WHAT OTHERWISE APPEARS TO BE RATHER
HOSTILE SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE CURRENT SHEAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT NORTHWARD AND TO
THE EAST OF PATTY...WHICH ACTS TO DECREASE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM AND CAUSE THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO DECOUPLE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE LGEM
AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT PATTY COULD REACH THE BAHAMAS AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND
THEREFORE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ISLANDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 25.9N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 25.8N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 25.7N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 25.5N 72.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 25.0N 73.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 24.0N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0000Z 23.0N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012
...PATTY STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT MEANDERS WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 72.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST. PATTY IS
STATIONARY...AND SOME SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...
WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE TIGHT
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS...JUST INSIDE THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CANOPY...DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THIS SHEAR PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN CONSENSUS 00Z DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN ADT
ESTIMATE OF T2.9/43 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 40 KT.
RECENT SSMIS...TRMM...AND WINDSAT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE PATTY HAS
REMAINED ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LITTLE
MOVEMENT...OR PERHAPS A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP...IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN NORTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND BENEATH UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. BY 36
HOURS AND BEYOND...THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE LOW-/MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASING AND
FORCING PATTY IN A SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE ATLANTIC. THE EXPECTED SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL ALSO FORCE
PATTY INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND BECOME VERTICALLY SHALLOW...AND DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW OR TROUGH THAT GETS ADVECTED SOUTHWESTWARD OR
WESTWARD BY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. SINCE PATTY IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...ADDITONAL FORECAST POINTS HAVE BEEN ADDED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...
AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECASTS...SINCE THOSE MODELS REFLECT A MORE
ROBUST TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
A FORTUITOUS 11/2031 UTC DROPSONDE REPORT RECEIVED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN REGION INDICATED THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM 850-300 MB
WAS MUCH LESS THAN THE 28-30 KT 850-200 MB SHEAR ASSESSED BY THE
GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL. THIS MIGHT EXPLAIN WHY PATTY HAS REMAINED
WELL-ORGANIZED TODAY DESPITE WHAT OTHERWISE APPEARS TO BE RATHER
HOSTILE SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE CURRENT SHEAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT NORTHWARD AND TO
THE EAST OF PATTY...WHICH ACTS TO DECREASE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM AND CAUSE THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO DECOUPLE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE LGEM
AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT PATTY COULD REACH THE BAHAMAS AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND
THEREFORE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ISLANDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 25.9N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 25.8N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 25.7N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 25.5N 72.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 25.0N 73.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 24.0N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0000Z 23.0N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PATTY CONTINUES TO
GENERATE A LARGE MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AN EARLIER
SSMIS PASS AND NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THE WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED ABOUT 60 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE NEAREST
DEEP CONVECTION AS A CONSEQUENCE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE ABRUPTLY DECREASED TO 2.0 FROM BOTH SATELLITE
AGENCIES...AND A BLEND OF T- AND CI-NUMBERS IS THE BASIS FOR
LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT.
PATTY IS NOT LIKELY TO HANG ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH
LONGER. AN INCREASINGLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS WRAPPING
AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE STORM DUE ITS PROXIMITY TO A FRONT.
IN ADDITION...A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN EVEN STRONGER
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER PATTY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE FACTORS
SHOULD PROMOTE WEAKENING...AND PATTY IS LIKELY TO BE SHEARED APART
AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24-36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND A
BIT LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF PATTY IS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...AND HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST...OR 200/03...DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW CYCLONE BEING PUSHED
SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF AND UKMET
MODELS THAT DISSIPATE THE STORM RELATIVELY SOON. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT A BIT FASTER TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 36 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 25.1N 72.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 24.9N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 24.6N 73.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 24.3N 73.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0600Z 23.9N 74.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0600Z 23.0N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PATTY CONTINUES TO
GENERATE A LARGE MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AN EARLIER
SSMIS PASS AND NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THE WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED ABOUT 60 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE NEAREST
DEEP CONVECTION AS A CONSEQUENCE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE ABRUPTLY DECREASED TO 2.0 FROM BOTH SATELLITE
AGENCIES...AND A BLEND OF T- AND CI-NUMBERS IS THE BASIS FOR
LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT.
PATTY IS NOT LIKELY TO HANG ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH
LONGER. AN INCREASINGLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS WRAPPING
AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE STORM DUE ITS PROXIMITY TO A FRONT.
IN ADDITION...A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN EVEN STRONGER
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER PATTY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE FACTORS
SHOULD PROMOTE WEAKENING...AND PATTY IS LIKELY TO BE SHEARED APART
AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24-36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND A
BIT LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF PATTY IS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...AND HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST...OR 200/03...DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW CYCLONE BEING PUSHED
SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF AND UKMET
MODELS THAT DISSIPATE THE STORM RELATIVELY SOON. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT A BIT FASTER TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 36 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 25.1N 72.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 24.9N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 24.6N 73.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 24.3N 73.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0600Z 23.9N 74.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0600Z 23.0N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012
...AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE EN ROUTE TO PATTY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 72.0W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST. PATTY IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. LITTLE MOTION IS
EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWING BY A MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
PATTY COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BEFORE SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
TROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF PATTY REMAINS EXPOSED TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF A SHRINKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH SOME
BANDING FEATURES FORMING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.
ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A BIT LOWER THAN BEFORE...A
BLEND OF THOSE VALUES STILL SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS A MARGINAL
TROPICAL STORM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL BE IN
THE AREA LATER TODAY TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILED DATA. THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE WINNING THE BATTLE WITH PATTY...
AND THIS SHEAR SHOULD ONLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THUS...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY SLOWLY SPIN DOWN AND THE NHC FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE SHOWING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
WINDS. PATTY WILL PROBABLY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
36H DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE.
THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY SINCE FORMATION...PRIMARILY
DUE TO ITS VARYING DEPTHS OF CONVECTION. LITTLE NET MOTION IS
EXPECTED TODAY...AND AFTER THE SHEAR INCREASES TONIGHT...THE
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DOMINATE AND CAUSE A
SHALLOWER PATTY TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. THE NHC TRACK IS
ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY ON TO CAPTURE A RECENT DRIFT
IN THAT DIRECTION...THEN IS BLENDED BACK TOWARD THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN 36H.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1500Z 25.5N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 25.7N 71.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 25.6N 71.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 24.5N 73.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1200Z 23.5N 75.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
TROPICAL STORM PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012
...AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE EN ROUTE TO PATTY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 72.0W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST. PATTY IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. LITTLE MOTION IS
EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWING BY A MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
PATTY COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BEFORE SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
TROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF PATTY REMAINS EXPOSED TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF A SHRINKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH SOME
BANDING FEATURES FORMING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.
ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A BIT LOWER THAN BEFORE...A
BLEND OF THOSE VALUES STILL SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS A MARGINAL
TROPICAL STORM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL BE IN
THE AREA LATER TODAY TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILED DATA. THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE WINNING THE BATTLE WITH PATTY...
AND THIS SHEAR SHOULD ONLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THUS...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY SLOWLY SPIN DOWN AND THE NHC FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE SHOWING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
WINDS. PATTY WILL PROBABLY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
36H DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE.
THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY SINCE FORMATION...PRIMARILY
DUE TO ITS VARYING DEPTHS OF CONVECTION. LITTLE NET MOTION IS
EXPECTED TODAY...AND AFTER THE SHEAR INCREASES TONIGHT...THE
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DOMINATE AND CAUSE A
SHALLOWER PATTY TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. THE NHC TRACK IS
ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY ON TO CAPTURE A RECENT DRIFT
IN THAT DIRECTION...THEN IS BLENDED BACK TOWARD THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN 36H.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1500Z 25.5N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 25.7N 71.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 25.6N 71.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 24.5N 73.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1200Z 23.5N 75.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012
...PATTY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 72.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.1 WEST. PATTY IS
CURRENTLY STATIONARY. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PATTY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT
PATTY HAD MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE THAT TIME...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DECOUPLED FROM
THE WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO ABOUT 25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR. BASED ON THE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 30 KT AND PATTY IS DOWNGRADED TO A
DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN
A SPIN DOWN TO REMNANT LOW STATUS BY 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
OCCUR SOONER IF THE DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS OR SOONER.
PATTY HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN AS PATTY IS STEERED BY A
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH
DISSIPATION...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/2100Z 25.5N 72.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 25.4N 72.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 25.0N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/0600Z 24.2N 74.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012
...PATTY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 72.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.1 WEST. PATTY IS
CURRENTLY STATIONARY. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PATTY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT
PATTY HAD MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE THAT TIME...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DECOUPLED FROM
THE WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO ABOUT 25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR. BASED ON THE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 30 KT AND PATTY IS DOWNGRADED TO A
DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN
A SPIN DOWN TO REMNANT LOW STATUS BY 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
OCCUR SOONER IF THE DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS OR SOONER.
PATTY HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN AS PATTY IS STEERED BY A
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH
DISSIPATION...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/2100Z 25.5N 72.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 25.4N 72.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 25.0N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/0600Z 24.2N 74.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012
...PATTY MOVING LITTLE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 72.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.1 WEST. PATTY IS
CURRENTLY STATIONARY. A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PATTY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW
SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012
DESPITE A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF PARTLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND A RECENT UW-CIMSS AMSU-A
ESTIMATION. PATTY...HOWEVER...IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN
AND DISSIPATES IN 2 DAYS.
PATTY HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...POSSIBLY AN ERRATIC
DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PATTY SHOULD...HOWEVER...BEGIN A
GRADUAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE WEST ATLANTIC EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SIDES WITH THE
TVCA MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0300Z 25.4N 72.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 25.3N 72.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 24.7N 73.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/1200Z 23.9N 76.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012
...PATTY MOVING LITTLE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 72.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.1 WEST. PATTY IS
CURRENTLY STATIONARY. A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PATTY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW
SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012
DESPITE A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF PARTLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND A RECENT UW-CIMSS AMSU-A
ESTIMATION. PATTY...HOWEVER...IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN
AND DISSIPATES IN 2 DAYS.
PATTY HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...POSSIBLY AN ERRATIC
DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PATTY SHOULD...HOWEVER...BEGIN A
GRADUAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE WEST ATLANTIC EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SIDES WITH THE
TVCA MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0300Z 25.4N 72.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 25.3N 72.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 24.7N 73.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/1200Z 23.9N 76.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139090
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: PATTY - Advisories
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012
AN ASCAT PASS SEVERAL HOURS AGO SHOWED THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH PATTY WITH MAX WINDS OF 30 KNOTS. SINCE THAT TIME...NIGHT-
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING
ELONGATED AND LOSING ORGANIZATION. THE CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE CENTER. PATTY IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MOST LIKELY...THE CYCLONE WILL DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.
PATTY HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE OR ITS REMANTS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH WHICH IS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0900Z 25.5N 71.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 25.4N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 14/0600Z 24.0N 74.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012
AN ASCAT PASS SEVERAL HOURS AGO SHOWED THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH PATTY WITH MAX WINDS OF 30 KNOTS. SINCE THAT TIME...NIGHT-
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING
ELONGATED AND LOSING ORGANIZATION. THE CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE CENTER. PATTY IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MOST LIKELY...THE CYCLONE WILL DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.
PATTY HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE OR ITS REMANTS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH WHICH IS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0900Z 25.5N 71.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 25.4N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 14/0600Z 24.0N 74.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139090
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: PATTY - Advisories
BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012
...PATTY NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 72.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF PATTY WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST. THE TROUGH IS MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THAT GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON PATTY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
REMNANTS OF PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012
VISIBLE IMAGES AND SATELLITE DERIVED LOW-LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THE
CIRCULATION OF PATTY HAS BECOME HIGHLY ELONGATED AND IT APPEARS THAT
IT IS NO LONGER CLOSED. THEREFORE...PATTY DOES NOT QUALIFY AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE REMNANTS OF PATTY...WHICH ARE
LOCATED NEAR THE BASE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ARE MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE TROUGH DISSIPATES OVER OR NEAR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BY THIS EVENING.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF PATTY PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/1500Z 24.8N 72.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
REMNANTS OF PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012
...PATTY NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 72.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF PATTY WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST. THE TROUGH IS MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THAT GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON PATTY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
REMNANTS OF PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012
VISIBLE IMAGES AND SATELLITE DERIVED LOW-LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THE
CIRCULATION OF PATTY HAS BECOME HIGHLY ELONGATED AND IT APPEARS THAT
IT IS NO LONGER CLOSED. THEREFORE...PATTY DOES NOT QUALIFY AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE REMNANTS OF PATTY...WHICH ARE
LOCATED NEAR THE BASE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ARE MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE TROUGH DISSIPATES OVER OR NEAR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BY THIS EVENING.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF PATTY PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/1500Z 24.8N 72.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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