ATL: SANDY - Recon Discussion

[lester]

Someone please take over posting the recon data.

will do.

[cycloneye]

Plane decends to operational altitud.

[MiamiensisWx]

Perfect timing: the recent pass shows that the plane has turned around, perhaps due to a technical difficulty. Now Cuba may not have an accurate intensity estimate to determine the effects of the cyclone.

Edit: The plane is back en route, fortunately.

[cycloneye]

I wonder what happened there that they did that.

[CrazyC83]

I wonder what happened there that they did that.

Brief technical issue perhaps that they fixed? It would have been at a critical time too...you can't low-ball intensities at this point, and Sandy was only slightly below Dvorak before Jamaican landfall (which I estimate was 80 kt).

[CrazyC83]

962mb pressure from Recon, and wind data supports 80-85 kt. The right-front quadrant has not been sampled though. I'd bump it to 85 kt for now.

[cycloneye]

For some reason the SE quad has been the strongest so far during the life of this system.

[MiamiensisWx]

For some reason the SE quad has been the strongest so far during the life of this system.

Luis, I think that is related to the fact that Sandy has been moving N at a faster-than-average (for this latitude) rate near 12 knots / 15 mph. In a system moving quickly to the N or NE, the strongest quadrants will be east of the center...particularly the SE quadrant in a rapidly intensifying storm that frequently wobbles east of due north.

Anyway, reconnaissance flight-level wind of 96 kt and the SFMR measurement of 79 kt average out to 88 kt, which reduces to about 80 kt at the surface (10 meters).

[brunota2003]

Really deep storms NW to SW, can't wait for this pass! Once those storms rotate around to the SE side, I think we'll see surface winds spike and flight level winds will be in excess of 100 knots...maybe even 110?

[CrazyC83]

Any chance that a Gulfstream flight is coming soon? That would help a lot.

[HurrMark]

Any chance that a Gulfstream flight is coming soon? That would help a lot.

I thought I heard tomorrow but I might be wrong...don't see anything in the TCPOD. There will be a nearly-unprecedented launch of weather balloons across the country for the purpose of determining the atmosphere affecting Sandy...that I think is tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

Any chance that a Gulfstream flight is coming soon? That would help a lot.

I thought I heard tomorrow but I might be wrong...don't see anything in the TCPOD. There will be a nearly-unprecedented launch of weather balloons across the country for the purpose of determining the atmosphere affecting Sandy...that I think is tomorrow.

Here was Wednesdays TCPOD. No mention of gulfstream jet .

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT WED 24 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
         TCPOD NUMBER.....12-158

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE 2SANDY
       FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 42          FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
       A. 26/0000Z                    A. 26/0000Z,0600Z
       B. NOAA2 0718A SANDY           B. AFXXX 0818A SANDY
       C. 25/2000Z                    C. 25/2015Z
       D. 24.4N 76.4WW                D. 24.4N 76.4W
       E. 25/2200Z TO 26/0200Z        E. 25/2330Z TO 26/0600Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT            F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 42        FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 72
       A. 26/1200Z                    A. 26/1200Z,1800Z
       B. NOAA2 0918A SANDY           B. AFXXX 1018A SANDY
       C. 26/0800Z                    C. 26/0815Z
       D. 26.3N 76.7W                 D. 26.3N 76.7W
       E. 26/1000Z TO 26/1400Z        E. 26/1130Z TO 26/1800Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT            F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
       WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. ANOTHER P-3 FLIGHT
       AT 26/2000Z.


[brunota2003]

Well, they found 102 knots in the NE Quad at flight level.

[Cyclenall]

Perfect timing: the recent pass shows that the plane has turned around, perhaps due to a technical difficulty. Now Cuba may not have an accurate intensity estimate to determine the effects of the cyclone.

Edit: The plane is back en route, fortunately.

Oh man, if that would have happened (turning around and returning) this would have been my reaction to it:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuWKhPGzN6U[/youtube]

I took one look at Hurricane Sandy this evening and estimated it was 90-95 knots and had a pressure of 960 mb. I was 1.5 mb off and maybe more for winds but the winds should continue to go up quick. Then they went with the VDM of 964 mb but what does that mean for the other lower value?

Well, they found 102 knots in the NE Quad at flight level.

Sounds about right.

[Extratropical94]

Wow, 117 kt FL in NE eyewall, 91 kt SFMR and 952 mbars.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Nice job with recon tonight artist.

[stephen23]

Yeah nice job, thank you for your hours and hours of work on this

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Flight level winds are actually up. (surface winds are down though for now)

This flight so far (after Cuba):

30s avg flight level: 114kts (131 mph)
10s flight level gust: 126kts (145 mph)

Last flight (before Cuba):

30s avg flight level: 113kts (130 mph)
10s flight level gust: 117kts (134.5 mph)

[CrazyC83]

The FL-SFMR ratio increase suggests it is already starting a transition towards post-tropical?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

It might just be that the surface got much more disrupted by Cuba.