ATL: SANDY - Recon Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Recon Discussion

#41 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:44 pm

The next mission departs at 3:45 AM EDT.

Code: Select all

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
       A. 24/1200Z,1800Z   
       B. AFXXX 0418A CYCLONE
       C. 24/0745Z
       D. 17.4N 77.0W
       E. 24/1130Z TO 24/1800Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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#42 Postby artist » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:46 pm

goodnight brunota!
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#43 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:57 pm

SW quadrant winds are noticeably stronger this leg than the last time through the SW quadrant. Let's see if we get another pressure fall.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Recon Discussion

#44 Postby weatherwindow » Wed Oct 24, 2012 3:52 am

Whats flight time to Sandy for WC-130 from Keesler AFB?
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#45 Postby Caribwxgirl » Wed Oct 24, 2012 7:02 am

Pressure of 981 found.
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#46 Postby Caribwxgirl » Wed Oct 24, 2012 7:09 am

Finding winds at FL of 64 & 69kts

Don't know how to post in the recon thread but I'm following from decoder site.
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#47 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:37 am

Latest pass shows 977 mb, 65 knots SFMR in heavy rain in NErn eyewall.
Last edited by Extratropical94 on Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#48 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:38 am

Extratropical94 wrote:Latest pass shows 977 mb, 65 knots SMFR in heavy rain in NErn eyewall.


That suggests the 60 kt intensity is appropriate still.
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Re: Re:

#49 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:42 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
Extratropical94 wrote:Latest pass shows 977 mb, 65 knots SMFR in heavy rain in NErn eyewall.


That suggests the 60 kt intensity is appropriate still.


So 2012 is again the 'season of winds not catching up despite ridiculously low pressures.'
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Re: Re:

#50 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:35 am

Extratropical94 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Extratropical94 wrote:Latest pass shows 977 mb, 65 knots SMFR in heavy rain in NErn eyewall.


That suggests the 60 kt intensity is appropriate still.


So 2012 is again the 'season of winds not catching up despite ridiculously low pressures.'


Seems that way but it was not unexpected. The pressure appears to be 978 with the dropsonde.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Recon Discussion

#51 Postby cpdaman » Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:52 am

guys are the centers stacked yet, or still displaced. And if so are they forecast to be displaced right into ET transition? much thanks for any answer!
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#52 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:53 am

If you trust the flight-level winds, we probably have a hurricane. 86 kt at FL = about 77 kt at the surface. But the SFMR doesn't come close to that.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Recon Discussion

#53 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:40 pm

Next mission departs at 4:00 PM EDT.

Code: Select all

       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71       
       A. 25/0000Z,0600Z       
       B. AFXXX 0518A SANDY
       C. 24/2000Z                 
       D. 18.9N 77.0W           
       E. 24/2330Z TO 25/0600Z   
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT   
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#54 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:56 pm

Based on the Recon data, it looks like the landfall intensity should be about 80 kt.
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#55 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Oct 24, 2012 3:13 pm

Can someone help me understand today's Recon flight plan? If I'm reading this right, shouldn't we have some flights overlapping in Sandy? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml
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Re:

#56 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 3:21 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Can someone help me understand today's Recon flight plan? If I'm reading this right, shouldn't we have some flights overlapping in Sandy? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

Yes. Those flights are on the 26th, and the flights that overlap are one NOAA/AF bird in the evening of the 25th into the 26th, and another in the late morning/afternoon of the 26th
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Re:

#57 Postby x-y-no » Wed Oct 24, 2012 3:24 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Can someone help me understand today's Recon flight plan? If I'm reading this right, shouldn't we have some flights overlapping in Sandy? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml


There won't be any more flights tonight beyond the one which is on the way now, because the storm will be over Cuba. Once it emerges north of Cuba tomorrow we'll get more intensive recon.
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#58 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 6:04 pm

Cuba is actually letting us fly over? What tat? Awesome!
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Re:

#59 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 6:07 pm

brunota2003 wrote:Cuba is actually letting us fly over? What tat? Awesome!


They did that in Gustav and Ike as well.
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#60 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Oct 24, 2012 6:15 pm

Someone please take over posting the recon data.
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