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1.TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 15.9N 87.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 87.7E
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 87.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS NEARLY BEEN
COMPLETELY SHEARED FROM THE NOW FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). AN OLDER 180628Z OSCAT PASS SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT
REGION OF 35 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
LLCC. THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT INDICATED MUCH LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN
15 TO 20 KNOTS. ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND HAS
STEADILY DIMINISHED THE INFLOW OF THE WARMER MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 03B
IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS. OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED TO
MODERATELY HIGH LEVELS (20 TO 30 KNOTS) WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
OBSERVED SHEARING OF THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC.
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW INDICATE A NOTICEABLE WEAKENING TREND
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 35 KNOTS
BASED ON THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OSCAT PASS AND THE OBSERVED
STRUCTURE OF THE LLCC IN MSI. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STEADY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK, EXCLUDING WBAR
WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTHWARD TRACK. BASED ON THE INCREASE IN
VWS, THE FORECASTED INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS TO A STEADY STATE FORECAST, WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. BASED
ON CONSISTENT MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE RECENT INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED
TO THE SOUTHWEST, THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
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