WPAC: BOPHA - Remnants

[euro6208]

looks like we here in the marianas better start preparing...

it has grown considerably...BOPHA doesn't want to wait till next year...

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 250133
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1133 AM CHST SUN NOV 25 2012

PMZ172-173-174-251300-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-
1133 AM CHST SUN NOV 25 2012

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF POHNPEI HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWESTWARD...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED AT
ABOUT 3N158E AND THIS IS SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST OF PREVIOUS POSITIONS.
THIS IS ABOUT 220 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NUKUORO...250 MILES
NORTHEAST OF KAPINGAMARANGI...AND ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH OF POHNPEI.
HEAVY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE
FLARING UP JUST SOUTH OF POHNPEI...OVER KOSRAE AND SOUTHEAST OF
CHUUK. THIS CONVECTION COVERS

TA...ETAL...SATAWAN...LUKUNOR...NAMOLUK AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS
IN SOUTHERN CHUUK STATE AND
SAPWUAFIK...NUKUORO...AND KAPINGAMARANGI IN POHNPEI STATE AND
ACROSS KOSRAE STATE.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE ABOVE LOCATIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY. CHOPPY SEAS OF 5 TO 7
FEET COULD BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FEET OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CAUSE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY SMALL BOATS ACROSS
THIS REGION.

RESIDENTS OF CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES SHOULD STAY ALERT AND
MONITOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND SEA CONDITIONS.

$$

SIMPSON/GUARD

[RobWESTPACWX]

I just made a video on this area, my thoughts at least on where I think it could be going if it was to develop.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NW-ylhxhlts[/youtube]

[supercane4867]

Spinning up...

[mrbagyo]

its been a while when I last posted here, nogaps showing an intense storm out of this, tracking west ( like Mike of 1990), http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/metoc/nogaps/ euro barely showing anything

[dexterlabio]

Euro agrees with NOGAPS and CMC on the latest 00z run. Ominous scenario for Mindanao if this pans out. I think I've had enough footage of Washi from last year to bear, I hope this won't happen, or at least if it will, people are more prepared than ever...

[mrbagyo]

just saw the latest run from euro, indeed a very dangerous situation for mindanao.. people there must be warned about this even before this enters the PAR.
meanwhile...
http://dzmm.abs-cbnnews.com/news/National/PAGASA:_Posibleng_wala_nang_mamataang_LPA_bago_matapos_ang_Nobyembre.html

[supercane4867]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.5N
159.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.6N 158.5E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH
OF POHNPEI. 12-HOUR ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING INTO A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION REMAINS STRONG. A
SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES INCLUDING A 250321Z AMSU-B PASS INDICATES
THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FORMATIVE BANDS REMAINS FRAGMENTED AND
SHALLOW. HOWEVER, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOW
EXTENSIVE CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
INTO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO AGGRESSIVE MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND THE
STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Whats scary about NGPS is that is a very similar setup as Washi last year, and we all know how that turned out. I don't think it will stay that far south and lets hope it does not.

[cycloneye]

From the Guam NWS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1042 PM CHST SUN NOV 25 2012

PMZ172-173-174-260100-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-
1042 PM CHST SUN NOV 25 2012

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF POHNPEI HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS CENTERED NEAR 3N158E. THIS IS
ABOUT 215 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NUKUORO...250 MILES NORTHEAST OF
KAPINGAMARANGI...AND ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH OF POHNPEI. HEAVY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE ARE FLARING UP JUST SOUTH OF POHNPEI...SOUTHWEST OF
KOSRAE AND SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. THIS CONVECTION COVERS

TA...ETAL...SATAWAN...LUKUNOR...NAMOLUK AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS
IN SOUTHERN CHUUK STATE AND
SAPWUAFIK...NUKUORO...AND KAPINGAMARANGI IN POHNPEI STATE AND
ACROSS KOSRAE STATE.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE ABOVE LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY. CHOPPY SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET
COULD BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FEET OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CAUSE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY SMALL BOATS ACROSS
THIS REGION.

RESIDENTS OF CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES SHOULD STAY ALERT AND
MONITOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND SEA CONDITIONS.

$$

AYDLETT

[euro6208]

slowly consolidating

[euro6208]

looks like an intense small typhoon shaping up...

[supercane4867]

Climbing north...

Track History
Synoptic Time Latitude Longitude Intensity
201211251200 3 158.1 20
201211250600 2.6 158 20
201211250000 2.6 158.5 20
201211241800 2.8 158.7 20
201211241200 0.5 157.7 15
201211240600 0.6 158.1 15
201211240000 0.7 157.3 15
201211231800 0.5 158.4 15
201211231200 1.4 159.5 15
201211230600 1.2 159 15
201211230000 1.2 159.4 15
201211221800 1.1 159.8 15

[supercane4867]

TPPN10 PGTW 251221

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (SE OF CHUUK)

B. 25/1130Z

C. 3.0N

D. 158.3E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. A .20 WRAP ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. PT AGREES. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

[Meow]

90W is reassigned to 91W...

[supercane4867]

90W is reassigned to 91W...

Why they do that?

[supercane4867]

Up to 1.5

TPPN10 PGTW 251535

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W (SE OF CHUUK)

B. 25/1430Z

C. 3.3N

D. 157.6E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. A .30 WRAP ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

[cycloneye]

SSD floater also changed to 91W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[euro6208]

we should see a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert soon due to it's ever improving circulation and dvorak up to 1.5..

[mrbagyo]

spinning motion is very evident, serious threat for Visayas Mindanao area for sure. i think this will be a lot stronger compared to Washi of last year that killed thousands.
TCFA might be issued in the next warning, no warnings yet from JMA - but i'm pretty sure they will soon join the club

November and December storms also tend to be bad in the Philippines- Mike(1990), Thelma (1991), Nina (1987), Durian ( 2006), Agnes ( 1984), Amy (1951) just to name few.