ATL: ARTHUR - Models

[CrazyC83]

An overland track would mess up the intensity until it gets off Hatteras though...how warm is the northern Gulf Stream, enough to sustain a high-latitude hurricane?

[gatorcane]

12Z HWRF has shifted to the east and here is what it has so far at 87 hours with a decent cyclone skirting the coast of the Carolinas. It spends less time over the peninsula of Florida in this run compared to the 06Z and consequently makes the system stronger on its recurve trajectory:

[Hammy]

How long after the run does the public Euro come out?

[tolakram]

Gah, old run. Euro not started yet.

European Center 10-day HRES (ECMWF) (2-times daily) -- 1:45 AM/PM -- 75 mins to finish

from WeatherBell. Latest has not started yet.

[tolakram]

Looking at the Euro USA maps, which have started updating.

66 hours; 1003mb due east of the FL, GA border and due south of Charleston, SC
78 hours; 996mb SE of Charleston
84 hours; 994mb SE of the SC, NC border
90 hours; 992mb very very close to the outer banks (near Beaufort)

[SeGaBob]

Any notable shifts in direction so far?

[tolakram]

96 hours; 989mb and appears to have crossed right over or very close to Hatteras.

No major changes in my opinion.

[TropicalWXMA]

NAM has a Tropical Storm Arthur east of Daytona Beach, FL by Wednesday night.

[capepoint]

Looking at the Euro USA maps, which have started updating.

66 hours; 1003mb due east of the FL, GA border and due south of Charleston, SC
78 hours; 996mb SE of Charleston
84 hours; 994mb SE of the SC, NC border
90 hours; 992mb very very close to the outer banks (near Beaufort)

oh, coming to visit me? lol. Thats a worst case 'running up the Pamlico sound' scenerio, that track would take out NC12 north of Hatteras again with surge.......... Wont take much of a storm to do it.

[vacanechaser]

Looking at the Euro USA maps, which have started updating.

66 hours; 1003mb due east of the FL, GA border and due south of Charleston, SC
78 hours; 996mb SE of Charleston
84 hours; 994mb SE of the SC, NC border
90 hours; 992mb very very close to the outer banks (near Beaufort)

oh, coming to visit me? lol. Thats a worst case 'running up the Pamlico sound' scenerio, that track would take out NC12 north of Hatteras again with surge.......... Wont take much of a storm to do it.

very true.. that area has been hit hard the past few years.. the lego bridge as the locals call it will take another hit again..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[tolakram]

Looks like whatever it is at the time makes a second landfall in the Canso area of Nova Scotia at hour 132; 984mb.

[tolakram]

For what it's worth, Bastardi (WeatherBell) has it east of Hatteras Friday evening as a 80kts hurricane and not making landfall.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro 96 hour saved image:

[Hammy]

Close to hurricane intensity there?

[OuterBanker]

Yes, Vanechaser. Beauford in 90, 96 Nags Head. Looks like 80 to 100 range 900mb for both. Could be worse with just a slight west track. Don't think any other models are that strong though. Downright scary. Way too many tourist in both places now.

[OuterBanker]

HWRF wind swath 80 plus the entire Outer Banks. BTW, all runs 12z 6/30.

[ronjon]

12z HWRF brings it ashore near Wilmington NC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2014063012-invest91l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[jlauderdal]

12z HWRF brings it ashore near Wilmington NC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2014063012-invest91l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

hwrf has received more love during this system then all systems combined last year..

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Am I reading the models wrong or did the 18z runs drastically change the forecast path and strength of this storm? It seems like most of them have it now doing a big ole "right turn Clyde".

[CrazyC83]

What is the shear like ahead of the storm? With no land interaction, hurricane status may not be all out of the question...