ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#101 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:18 pm

torrea40 wrote::?: :?: :?: :?: :?: Really.??????????????????

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook http://bit.ly/1n6PFz3


What about it? The 5 day graph only shows areas that are a threat to develop into TCs in the next 5 days. TD Two has already developed. Helps keep the map from getting too busy.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#102 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:29 pm

00z Best Track remains as TD.

AL, 02, 2014072200, , BEST, 0, 120N, 444W, 30, 1012, TD
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#103 Postby Nimbus » Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:39 pm

Kind of dry out there nut TD2 is staying small and is managing to keep moist convective lift in the low sheer environment. Unless the sheer forecast changes it might be naked swirl time in the Caribbean.

WXman57 probably called this one already JIM.
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#104 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:40 pm

IR saved loop:
Image
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Re:

#105 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:43 pm

Nimbus wrote:Kind of dry out there nut TD2 is staying small and is managing to keep moist convective lift in the low sheer environment. Unless the sheer forecast changes it might be naked swirl time in the Caribbean.

WXman57 probably called this one already JIM.

Shear is quite low for another few hundred miles...SAL on the other hand...not so much.

I say this makes a brief weak-mod TS before weakening back to a TD. Wether or not it makes it past 96 Hours, we shall see.

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Re: Re:

#106 Postby GrimReaper » Mon Jul 21, 2014 8:15 pm

RL3AO wrote:
GrimReaper wrote:How did this go from a 10% situation to a 70% in just a few hours? And...why are they saying conditions are unfavorable, yet keeping the 70% through the 5-day?


The five day can't be lower than the two day. Can't say 70% chance of forming within two days and a 40% chance within five days. The fact that they are the same tells you that conditions get unfavorable and its best chance is in the near term.


Thank you for that answer..... I didn't know that!
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#107 Postby ninel conde » Mon Jul 21, 2014 8:42 pm

very similar to last season. it will rather quickly dissipate.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#108 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 21, 2014 9:39 pm

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 45.1W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#109 Postby HurricaneTracker2031 » Mon Jul 21, 2014 10:33 pm

TD TWO will have to combat the dry air and SAL in order for it to survive. It also needs to gain more convection and grow in size, so it can support itself for the next 72 hours. I believe that it might sustain itself and will intensify after passing the Leeward Islands.

Synopsis for Tropical Depression Two and other areas in other basins: http://goo.gl/0f8wWA

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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#110 Postby blp » Mon Jul 21, 2014 11:07 pm

The northern outflow and precipation pocket that has been protecting it is shrinking fast. Soon the dry air will start to work its way in from the North. If it was a larger system I can see it surviving longer but it is too small to take on a strong push of dry air.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/02L/imagery/wv_lalo-animated.gif
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#111 Postby blp » Mon Jul 21, 2014 11:33 pm

This image is a great illustration of the challenge.


Image
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#112 Postby CFLHurricane » Tue Jul 22, 2014 2:34 am

blp wrote:This image is a great illustration of the challenge.


Image


Yeah I expect Two's demise, shortly.

http://www.cosgan.de/images/smilie/muede/d040.gif
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#113 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Jul 22, 2014 5:56 am

TD 2 is still doing pretty good at keeping dry air out.

Image
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#114 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 22, 2014 7:08 am

I think it peaked yesterday, possibly at 35 kts. Definitely less organized today. Virtually no banding features now. LLC is questionable. Bye, Two...
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#115 Postby tolakram » Tue Jul 22, 2014 7:38 am

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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#116 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:25 am

wxman57 wrote:I think it peaked yesterday, possibly at 35 kts. Definitely less organized today. Virtually no banding features now. LLC is questionable. Bye, Two...



Yeah, I agree. I am having a tough time discerning the LLC on satellite imagery this morning. Also, no organized convection if there is still a LLC. Appears convection is pushing farther westward ahead of where the LLC was positioned on the last advisory. The anticipated downward trend has begun IMO and Bones will be called in real soon to give his final proclamation.
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#117 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Jul 22, 2014 9:20 am

There is absolutely no way this is going to survive what it's heading into, but as others have said, this will moisten the atmosphere and I think there's a good chance we'll get the Atlantic Train gets started early this year.....
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#118 Postby torrea40 » Tue Jul 22, 2014 10:01 am

TNumbers UP... :D

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
22/1145 UTC 12.4N 47.4W T1.5/1.5 02L -- Atlantic
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#119 Postby Alyono » Tue Jul 22, 2014 11:09 am

this looks like a wide open wave
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#120 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jul 22, 2014 11:19 am

IMO this isn't a TC anymore.
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