ATL: TWO - Remnants - Discussion

[RL3AO]

:?: Really.??????????????????

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook http://bit.ly/1n6PFz3

What about it? The 5 day graph only shows areas that are a threat to develop into TCs in the next 5 days. TD Two has already developed. Helps keep the map from getting too busy.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track remains as TD.

AL, 02, 2014072200, , BEST, 0, 120N, 444W, 30, 1012, TD

[Nimbus]

Kind of dry out there nut TD2 is staying small and is managing to keep moist convective lift in the low sheer environment. Unless the sheer forecast changes it might be naked swirl time in the Caribbean.

WXman57 probably called this one already JIM.

[gatorcane]

IR saved loop:

[Hurricane Andrew]

Kind of dry out there nut TD2 is staying small and is managing to keep moist convective lift in the low sheer environment. Unless the sheer forecast changes it might be naked swirl time in the Caribbean.

WXman57 probably called this one already JIM.

Shear is quite low for another few hundred miles...SAL on the other hand...not so much.

I say this makes a brief weak-mod TS before weakening back to a TD. Wether or not it makes it past 96 Hours, we shall see.

FORECAST IS NOT PROFESSIONAL, AND SHOULD NOT BE USED AS SUCH.

[GrimReaper]

How did this go from a 10% situation to a 70% in just a few hours? And...why are they saying conditions are unfavorable, yet keeping the 70% through the 5-day?

The five day can't be lower than the two day. Can't say 70% chance of forming within two days and a 40% chance within five days. The fact that they are the same tells you that conditions get unfavorable and its best chance is in the near term.

Thank you for that answer..... I didn't know that!

[ninel conde]

very similar to last season. it will rather quickly dissipate.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 45.1W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES

[HurricaneTracker2031]

TD TWO will have to combat the dry air and SAL in order for it to survive. It also needs to gain more convection and grow in size, so it can support itself for the next 72 hours. I believe that it might sustain itself and will intensify after passing the Leeward Islands.

Synopsis for Tropical Depression Two and other areas in other basins: http://goo.gl/0f8wWA

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[blp]

The northern outflow and precipation pocket that has been protecting it is shrinking fast. Soon the dry air will start to work its way in from the North. If it was a larger system I can see it surviving longer but it is too small to take on a strong push of dry air.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/02L/imagery/wv_lalo-animated.gif

[blp]

This image is a great illustration of the challenge.

[CFLHurricane]

This image is a great illustration of the challenge.

Yeah I expect Two's demise, shortly.

http://www.cosgan.de/images/smilie/muede/d040.gif

[tropicwatch]

TD 2 is still doing pretty good at keeping dry air out.

[wxman57]

I think it peaked yesterday, possibly at 35 kts. Definitely less organized today. Virtually no banding features now. LLC is questionable. Bye, Two...

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=13&lon=-50&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&map=none&numframes=5

[northjaxpro]

I think it peaked yesterday, possibly at 35 kts. Definitely less organized today. Virtually no banding features now. LLC is questionable. Bye, Two...

Yeah, I agree. I am having a tough time discerning the LLC on satellite imagery this morning. Also, no organized convection if there is still a LLC. Appears convection is pushing farther westward ahead of where the LLC was positioned on the last advisory. The anticipated downward trend has begun IMO and Bones will be called in real soon to give his final proclamation.

[ConvergenceZone]

There is absolutely no way this is going to survive what it's heading into, but as others have said, this will moisten the atmosphere and I think there's a good chance we'll get the Atlantic Train gets started early this year.....

[torrea40]

TNumbers UP...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
22/1145 UTC 12.4N 47.4W T1.5/1.5 02L -- Atlantic

[Alyono]

this looks like a wide open wave

[RL3AO]

IMO this isn't a TC anymore.