ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Andrew]

I could see this thread getting 80-100 pages by the time this storm is done with. (especially if it impacts FL)

This thing hits Florida, we hit 500 pages easily.

[OuterBanker]

From a cockeyed optimist point of view.

We have a pro surf competition this weekend, with any luck the timing will be perfect for an off shore storm. It would be nice to see the 8 to 12 footers, but I would settle for the 6 to 8. Much better than Virginia Beach contest with the whopping one footers this past week.


http://obxentertainment.com/2014/08/21/ ... head-surf/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM SAT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS NE WINDS WILL BE 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR
25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 4-6 FT...THOUGH NEARSHORE SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FT SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. NE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY DIMINISHES
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUES...AND MAY SEE SEAS FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS BY TUES AFTERNOON OR TUES NIGHT. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEEK AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A PASSING TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL OFF THE NC COAST. 00Z
WAVEWATCH SUGGESTS SEAS INCREASING 8-12 FT BY THURSDAY...THOUGH
WILL CAP SEAS 6-8 FT FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. USED A BLEND OF
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN A
TAPER BACK VERSION OF THE 00Z WAVEWATCH FOR THE EXTENDED SEAS.

[emeraldislenc]

Once the center forms and we know exactly where the center is do you think the models will have a better handle on the storm?

[toad strangler]

Once the center forms and we know exactly where the center is do you think the models will have a better handle on the storm?

Of course. Once, if ever, the NHC classifies the disturbance you will get NHC cone product. If recent history has taught us anything, you don't deviate from the cone!

[MGC]

Convective structure looks less organized this morning compared to yesterday evening. Broad circulation center just south of Grand Turk it appears. Doubt 96 gets upgraded today......MGC

[HurriGuy]

System looks still be moving fairly west. EURO deepens the trough the most. We'll see, but I am doubtful.

[Mouton]

Yes, a center would be great and until then most of this is conversation.

[Hurricaneman]

It actually looks like a burst is just around the corner looking at the towering Cumulus around the center so that may be a sign that Hispaniola is losing its influence on it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[SouthDadeFish]

Low-level cu field starting to fill on SE side of the system. Probably priming for another convective burst.

[tolakram]

30 frame visible, speed it up for full effect. I see more organization. /shrug

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1200&height=700&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30

[emeraldislenc]

I agree!!

[Evil Jeremy]

30 frame visible, speed it up for full effect. I see more organization. /shrug

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1200&height=700&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30

It's almost there. Just needs a little spark. I think today is the day 96L finally gets it's act together.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Yup. May be about to go boom over the LLC. Recon launches very soon, will be interesting to see what they find.

Center to me appears to be around 20.5N and 71.5W, moving to the NW.

[swampdude]

Have we ever had this many pages for a non-TC???

[chris46n]

30 frame visible, speed it up for full effect. I see more organization. /shrug

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1200&height=700&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30

It's almost there. Just needs a little spark. I think today is the day 96L finally gets it's act together.

What you are talking about all the thunderstorms are all north or north east. Still a lot of sw winds.

[tailgater]

I was thinking closer to 20.2N and 73W. who knows.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Recon is in the air!

[SFLcane]

models really don't do much with 96L till it leaves those mountains. potential is there with favorable winds and rocket fuel. watching closely in sfl.

[rolltide]

30 frame visible, speed it up for full effect. I see more organization. /shrug

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1200&height=700&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30

Looks like some outflow can be seen on the west side if you look at the southern tip of Haiti.

[tropicwatch]

COC possibly close to image center.



20.23° N 71.78° W