CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Can't tell from radar whether it's jogging south meaning it'll miss the state or it is continuing WNW. Maybe I'm overthinking this.

[Equilibrium]

Thank goodness it did tame down from what it was a former monster but even the strength its at now its still a big blow.

09E ISELLE 140808 0000 19.0N 153.1W EPAC 70 991

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

40 frame saved radar loop

[AFWeather]

If it fails to gain any more latitude from this point on, Oahu will end up getting nothing. Center needs to get to at least 19.5 and probably 20 unless it expands.

[Kingarabian]

Moving west?

[Yellow Evan]

If it fails to gain any more latitude from this point on, Oahu will end up getting nothing. Center needs to get to at least 19.5 and probably 20 unless it expands.

At this rate, it'll be lucky to get higher than 19.2N. Seems to be moving west.

[Alyono]

as I said, moving between 275 and 280

[NDG]

Another look at radar, I agree, it looks to be heading almost due west.

[AdamFirst]

If it keeps its current trajectory I believe the core may come ashore near the Kalapana area, or over the Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. The trajectory would also bring the center of Iselle near or over Mauna Loa (13,600 feet), it'll be interesting to see how the peak would affect it.

The northern quadrant of the storm though is still strong - Hilo and towns to the south would still certainly be affected by potential hurricane conditions.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

We'll know in less than an hour what's going on. Last advisory foe the CPHC to shift the track south if needed

[Yellow Evan]

We'll know in less than an hour what's going on. Last advisory foe the CPHC to shift the track south if needed

Rough estimate is that if it continues on its course it's been on via radar for the last 60-70 mins, it'll pass near or just south of South Point.

That's a somewhat big if though.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

Not too far off.

[AdamFirst]

Kohala Radar (north shore of the big island) is in and out of service.

000
NOUS60 PHFO 072153
FTMHKM
Message Date: Aug 07 2014 21:53:39

PHKM UPOLU POINT RADAR DATA WILL BE INTERMITTENT DUE TO HIGH WINDS FROM HURRICAN
E ISELLE BLOWING THE RADOME HATCH OPEN, WHICH PUTS THE RADAR INTO STANDBY AUTOMA
TICALLY. HFO

Core is also beginning to come into view on the short range radar.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Elevation profile along white line.

[CrazyC83]

We may see an EPAC/CPAC rarity: 2-hour advisories with position estimate updates...

[Yellow Evan]

We may see an EPAC/CPAC rarity: 2-hour advisories with position estimate updates...

That's never happened I don't think.

[supercane4867]

Impressive -80°C cloud tops showing up

[Alyono]

It's already north of South Point

I think you are being fooled by the northerly shear over the system pushing the convection south (and the fact that the nrothern radar is out is not exactly helping anyways). The surface center remains on track

[Kingarabian]

Fresh pass shows marked improvements to the core.

[Alyono]

what data does CPHC have to lower the winds? Just to raise them again once the plane gets back there at 6Z?