CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

They probs kept it as a hurricane for public alarm reasons.

[supercane4867]

Iselle's long lasting journey as a hurricane finally comes to an end...

Even 60kt is likely somewhat generous now

[Yellow Evan]

Iselle's long lasting journey as a hurricane finally comes to an end...

Even 60kt is likely somewhat generous now

I'd give it 60 knts if I was doing the ATCF.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Given it is moving closer to west, the north quadrant may be more likely to have the higher winds, as opposed to the NE quadrant how they flew. So, it could be a little higher there especially.

[Yellow Evan]

The Hawaii News seems to think it has passed south of Hilo. Radar begs to differ.

[Iceman56]

I have to strongly disagree with lowering of the winds. I am not seeing this any more ragged than when the aircraft measured the 65 to 70 kt winds. Not saying this is the most organized hurricane, but it appears to me, based upon sat and radar, to have maintained intensity.

Would it have been better to wait for recon at 6Z to lower the winds?

You're welcome to disagree, of course. But there were several of us (with many years of operational tropical cyclone experience in the Pacific) with eyes on this thing for the 03Z advisory and we all agreed 70 knots was no longer appropriate for this system given that the low level center was increasingly separating from the deep convection (due to rapidly increasing northerly shear), as well as a ragged and very asymmetric, non-banded appearance that was worsening on satellite. It looked very similar to the evolution of Jimena in 2003 when it made it's CPA to the Big Island. The latest VORTEX drop of 996 mb confirms my thinking.

[supercane4867]

Given it is moving closer to west, the north quadrant may be more likely to have the higher winds, as opposed to the NE quadrant how they flew. So, it could be a little higher there especially.

Radar did found a small area of 60-65kt winds at 5000 feet just offshore the island, don't know how well these winds mixing down to the surface

[Yellow Evan]

I have to strongly disagree with lowering of the winds. I am not seeing this any more ragged than when the aircraft measured the 65 to 70 kt winds. Not saying this is the most organized hurricane, but it appears to me, based upon sat and radar, to have maintained intensity.

Would it have been better to wait for recon at 6Z to lower the winds?

You're welcome to disagree, of course. But there were several of us (with many years of operational tropical cyclone experience in the Pacific) with eyes on this thing for the 03Z advisory and we all agreed 70 knots was no longer appropriate for this system given that the low level center was increasingly separating from the deep convection (due to rapidly increasing northerly shear), as well as a ragged and very asymmetric, non-banded appearance that was worsening on satellite. It looked very similar to the evolution of Jimena in 2003 when it made it's CPA to the Big Island. The latest VORTEX drop of 996 mb confirms my thinking.

Lowering it IMO was risky. Granted, as I said, it's probs 55-60 knots right now, so it did not backfire.

[Iceman56]

Lowering it IMO was risky. Granted, as I said, it's probs 55-60 knots right now, so it did not backfire.

It wasn't risky at all, it was a solid consensus (unanimous, in fact) decision based on experience and extensive training. This is what we do.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Making an important N to S pass.

[Alyono]

I have to strongly disagree with lowering of the winds. I am not seeing this any more ragged than when the aircraft measured the 65 to 70 kt winds. Not saying this is the most organized hurricane, but it appears to me, based upon sat and radar, to have maintained intensity.

Would it have been better to wait for recon at 6Z to lower the winds?

You're welcome to disagree, of course. But there were several of us (with many years of operational tropical cyclone experience in the Pacific) with eyes on this thing for the 03Z advisory and we all agreed 70 knots was no longer appropriate for this system given that the low level center was increasingly separating from the deep convection (due to rapidly increasing northerly shear), as well as a ragged and very asymmetric, non-banded appearance that was worsening on satellite. It looked very similar to the evolution of Jimena in 2003 when it made it's CPA to the Big Island. The latest VORTEX drop of 996 mb confirms my thinking.

No doubt, it has weakened and this probably is no longer a hurricane. The NW shear got to the core just prior to landfall

However, given the fact that the core became more convective at after the 0Z 70 kts were found, I wouldn't have lowered the winds because the wind from aloft was likely being transported to the surface (we just saw that with Bertha last week and I've seen that many times as well in my many years of experience, albeit mainly in the Atlantic)

Now... in these sheared environments, what I have also seen is that after a burst, the storm quickly weakens. Ida was a classic example

[Yellow Evan]

LLC looks 1-2 hours away from hitting the coast. Landfall should be around 0930z based on recent radar trends.

[supercane4867]

Saved radar

[Yellow Evan]

Based on recon, this is no more than a mid-grade TS.

[Equilibrium]

Looks to it now clipping the land and appears to be 50-55 knots.
High end TS ATM.

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[Chris_in_Tampa]

URPN12 KNHC 080712
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP092014
A. 08/06:58:00Z
B. 18 deg 57 min N
154 deg 34 min W
C. 700 mb 3085 m
D. 52 kt
E. 356 deg 38 nm
F. 107 deg 48 kt
G. 356 deg 38 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 8 C / 3046 m
J. 16 C / 3049 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF302 0709C ISELLE OB 08
MAX FL WIND 48 KT 357 / 51 NM 06:43:00Z
Sonde surface wind 135 / 16 kts
Curved band of moderate echoes 45nm NE of center

[Equilibrium]

[Kingarabian]

Still waiting on landfall.

[supercane4867]

EP, 09, 2014080806, , BEST, 0, 189N, 1544W, 60, 995, TS

[Kingarabian]

Hawaiians/locals here can't tell the difference between 70mph and 75mph anyways.